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"With The First Pick...": A B&B Mock Draft

Discussion in 'Carolina Panthers' started by Black&Black, Apr 24, 2023.

  1. Black&Black

    Black&Black 31-68

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    The following is a B&B thread. It does not reflect the opinions or strategies of the Carolina Panthers.



    This mock was constructed with great care and analysis. I wanted to post one very close to the actual draft, but not so close that the inevitable media leaks ruin any surprise choice. As of me writing this, we only have a best guess as to which player becomes the #1 overall pick. Nothing is set in stone, and certainly not with such a volatile organization.

    I also wanted to stay within the boundaries of realistic outcomes, and that's going to come into play for the first selection.


    Before I start, here's a list of all of the sources I used to help build this bullshit:


    Lance Zuerlein Writeups
    Tankathon Big Board
    PFF Big Board
    NFL Mock Draft Database
    TBR Commentary
    YouTube
    My Eyes




    So with all of the preamble out of the way, here we go!










    Round 1, Pick 1

    Bryce Young - QB - Alabama
    5-10 205lbs







    Trading up to #1 in a year where it's not great to have the #1 pick - and a year before it's awesome to have a top 2 pick - might be the most Carolina Panthers thing of all time. But, here we are, so you might as well take the best player of the position you're looking for (not the best player overall, because that's Bijon) and hope for the best.




    After doing Alabama marathon on YouTube, I came away feeling better about Young's NFL future. Yes, he's tiny, and like most tiny quarterbacks, he struggles with the middle of the field. This will be a frustrating defect which Reich will have to work around. And at his height, you'll also be confined to a shotgun heavy offense with some pistol mixed in. This is something that gives me pause because it's hard to be a consistantly balanced NFL offense from shotgun, but an under center offense just don't seem viable, especially with the Panthers having one of the league's largest centers.


    bryce.jpg



    Anyway, that's the negative shit. What I like about him is pretty much everything else. As a passer, he's best on the intermediate to deep throws. Despite not having a cannon for an arm, he'll be good on corners, comebacks and fade routes because of his anticipation and touch. I see Bama WRs catching the ball over the shoulder, in stride, and getting up the field. I also feel better about his potential to stay healthy, since the guy got buried every time I watched Alabame, and only missed one game. Bill O'Brien has that weird, Belichick masochism when it comes to quarterbacks. Those freaks just want to make life as hard as humanly possible for their passers. Reich, the former quarterback, doesn't have a complex towards the position, so I expect him to help out Young with some RPO's, coverage indentifying motion, screens, etc. You know, things people do when they aren't trying to prove some sort of antiquated, old-school point. I also think the street ball aspect is overplayed. He wants to play conventional QB from the pocket, and Reich will help him get there. He can improvise, sure, but one of the reasons he did it so often in college was because his protection was so bad.

    Also, you have to consider the possibility that NFL football is changing. The game is getting exponentially softer, and the league is doing exponentially more to protect their highest paid assets. At some point in Young's NFL career, quarterback may very well become a non-contact position. What I can say with some confidence is that he won't get hit in the NFL like he got hit at Alabam, since NFL defenders are already terrified to hit QBs in any way that can be construed as violent. And as a scrambler, he's smart. He knows when to make business decisions. He won't be a contact magnet like RG3 or Kyler.



    Young will be a good NFL quarterback. He's a high character, high IQ playmaker with a proven history and pedigree. He was the dude in High School, he was the the dude in College, and with some help and careful planning, he can be the dude in the NFL.




    My second choice here is: None. Turn in the pick.





    Round 2, Pick 39


    Jahmyr Gibbs
    RB - Alabama/Georgia Tech
    5-9 199lbs








    Yes, this was hugely inspired by watching so many Alabama games, but if we're going to make the short QB thing work, it's imperative to have a versatile RB who can turn checkdowns into big plays. Gibbs fits that mold to a tee. He can also be your starting kick returner. You might argue that this is a deep draft for satellite back types, but I prefer Gibbs to guys like Devon Achane and Deuce Vaughn, mainly because those two just aren't big enough to function at all as pass protectors. Gibbs has just enough size and willingness to pick up blitzers. Granted, he'll never be great at it - meaning you'll find yourself in a similar paradox which you found yourself in with CMC. You have this proficient pass catcher, but you don't want him in the backfield on key 3rd down situations. The good news is that Reich is creative with two RB sets - think about Jonathan Taylor and Nyhiem Heins. I can already visualize similar 21 Pony packages in Charlotte.



    This was also inspired by Jacksonville pairing Trevor Lawerence with Travis Etienne. Didn't Lawarence look so much more comfortable in year 2 with his backfield mate? Obviously, this wasn't the only reason for the improvement (it always helps when you're not having to worry about being kicked by your manic depressive head coach) but I really do believe there's an intangible element there.


    As a sidenote, it costs nothing to cut Sanders next offseason (600k net savings according to Over The Cap). You can make this guy your feature back of the future if he hits year one.



    My second choice here is:

    Steve Avila, OG from TCU.

    -Big (6-3 320lbs) and versitile (played four of five OL positions in college) he would be the perfect project for James Campen, while giving the team insurance in the interior this season, as well as options in the future.




    Round 3, Pick 93


    Darius Rush
    CB - South Carolina
    6-2 198lbs


    To prove I'm not, as the kids say, "helmet scouting", Rush is nothing like Jaycee Horn. He's more like a much better version of Keith Taylor. Gangly, long speed (4.36 40), but stiff as hell, which likely keeps him glued to the outside. He doesn't stick to receivers the way Horn can, but his crazy length (35 inch arms) and speed gives him margin for error on passes. He'll play special teams right away, and considering the troubling injury history of Donte Jackson, you have to assume he'll be battling for snaps on defense. I don't want that week 17 game at Tampa to ever happen again.

    Darius Rush Draft and Combine Prospect Profile | NFL.com






    My second choice here is Riley Moss, CB from Iowa.

    (Yes, he's white. Get over it.)




    Round 4, Pick 114

    Dorian Thompson-Robinson
    QB - UCLA
    6-2 204lbs




    As far as I see it, there's no reason for Andy Dalton to be here if Young is the pick. I think they made that signing while they were still considering Richardson or Levis, which is fine, but that probably isn't happening now. Plus, the team's QB coach was a career long veteran mentor QB.


    So....

    [​IMG]




    At the very least, I'd like to stage a competition for QB2 (I don't think you can expect much from Corral after he's missed so much time). As a passer, DTR has some of that Fitzpatrickian gunslinger, which is a trait I actually like in a backup. I'm surprised he's not a more of a darkhorse pick by pundits. He's crazy athletic, solid arm, experienced, and played for a coach with NFL ties. This is also the point in the draft where it's "hey who knows" territory. Remember when the Redskins traded up for RG3, and then took Cousins in the 4th? It looked silly at the time, but Cousins kept that franchise semi-competitive in the midst of the RG3 collapse.




    Dorian Thompson-Robinson Draft and Combine Prospect Profile | NFL.com


    My second choice here is Parker Washington, WR, Penn State







    Round 4, Pick 132

    Will Mallory - TE - Miami
    6'4" 239



    Crappy blocker, inconsistent receiver, but a banging athletic profile (4.54 40, 36.5 vert) which is what I value at this point in the draft. And with Thomas returning as your extra OT, Hurst filling the pass catcher role, and Tremble still being a little bit of both, Mallory can fuck about on special teams while developing for 2024 and beyond. I do always like the concept of taking a stud athlete who's maybe a little too soft and manning him up on kick and punt coverage. Barno had that flash at the end of the season, and perhaps some of that had to do with Tabor using him as a gunner. It's just an easy way to build contact confidence.




    He is a move TE, though. He'll never be much more than that, which is fine. This is where you get rotational role players who contribute on teams.

    Will Mallory Draft and Combine Prospect Profile | NFL.com



    My second choice here is Brandon Joseph, S, Notre Dame






    Round 5, Pick 145

    Yasir Abdullah - LB - Louisville
    6-1, 237






    This fucker flies of the edge with his hair on fire, but at his size, you can't expect much translation to the NFL. His ceiling is that of a positionless designated pass rusher who plays heavy special teams snaps. I have seen him make plays in coverage, though. In the 2022 game at Pittsburgh, he picked of Slovis 30 yards down the field. Maybe you get lucky and he's another Luvu. Evero did have some success with Baron Browning in Denver, who is bigger than Abdullah, but has a similar positionless profile.


    Yasir Abdullah Draft and Combine Prospect Profile | NFL.com




    My second choice here is Jalen Moreno-Cropper, WR, Fresno St.












    Laments:



    - Ugh, you still don't feel awesome about the #1 overall pick, do you? He's sooo god damn small. He got hurt last year, and he'll run into that from time to time in the NFL no matter how much you try to protect him. It's kind of a bummer, and very Panther-esque. So many awesome, big QBs coming down the pipeline and we have to go with the one who has John Kasay's body type.



    - No wide receivers. There's a few that I wouldn't mind having, and I have them in my secondary option choice, but I figured the team already has enough 80 madden rating pass catchers this year.



    - I might kick myself by not making Avila my second rounder. The guard situation is suddenly on shaky ground, with one of both starters possibly missing the entire offseason. Frank Reich came from a team that saw a great O-line turn to dogshit in relatively short order. It can happen.



    - There's some good slot corners in this draft, but it sounds like Chinn is going to be Evero's big slot, or star, or whatever those Fangio guys are calling it now.


    - Who gets pressure when Burns is blocked up? I think they'll figure something out, but it's not a spectacular DE/OLB depth chart. Maybe they will actually take Brown of the nose more often and trying to use him over guards.





    Aside from all of that, I think I nailed it. I hope you enjoyed this piece.
     
    Last edited: Apr 25, 2023
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  2. presidence99

    presidence99 es lo que hay.

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    original (1).jpg
     
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  3. rake

    rake Need one of these

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    Good shit, but half those guys inspire a "meh" . ... which will probably be what many of us will feel later this week.
    I want Gibbs here now to the point that 145 (or a future pick) to move up a little if he survives into round 2 wouldn't bother me. YES to the need for one of the badass G prospects and I feel like there are quite a few that could help carolina a lot. Warming to the Mallory pick, mainly since Thomas will always inspire little more than a "meh"
     
  4. Black&Black

    Black&Black 31-68

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    It's a meh draft class. There are some very good players, but it seems like they're either shockingly small, or they play lower value rotational positions. Plus I'm always realistic about later picks. I don't talk up every selection as a future starter, because that almost never happens in reality.
     
    Last edited: Apr 25, 2023
  5. rake

    rake Need one of these

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    sad truths. .. despite Fetterer being touted as a master of later picks . .. later picks (in this draft especially) would be low % so i am hoping our 5th can help with a move up to make sure we get a starter.
     
  6. Black&Black

    Black&Black 31-68

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    This was definitely a better draft to move back than up, but it's also sounding like you could have stayed at 9 and gotten a quarterback - especially Richardson, who is apparently beloved by a faction within the building. Moving up to #1 was a panic move which has sunk cost no matter who you take.
     
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  7. Art Vandelay

    Art Vandelay Keep Pounding

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    I stopped reading here.

    How the hell do you expect anyone here to take this shit seriously when you don't use the huddle as a source? Is this amateur hour?

    Go back to Preps, you foreskin fondling moron. You don't have the requisite intelligence to post in the other parts of the forums.
     
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  8. presidence99

    presidence99 es lo que hay.

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    I read on the huddle the panthers might trade back with the jets to get rodgers and bekhton. Which is was okay but also we got 2 second round picks which made it totally credible
     
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  9. Art Vandelay

    Art Vandelay Keep Pounding

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    Quality content there.

    Almost as good as this one.

    "The fact that they haven't confirmed the pick and informed the player, is a red flag , why keep your cards close to the chest if you are not planning a swerve, we might trade all of this years picks for a big name Veteren ,what if panther North has moved on from Josh Allen ?

    I know I am insane, but its really fishy why we haven't went public with the pick"
     
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  10. presidence99

    presidence99 es lo que hay.

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    /tinfoil hat on

    Now that the draft is an EVENT the nfl has told teams to not telegraph the pick.
     

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