Season in review

[PantherPaul]

ESPN Insiders get a few paragraphs on all teams about how they finished, and what they need to do. I'll copy and paste any team your interested in. here are Boston (Grid and Pi) and Atlanta (several)

Buster Olney's take


What went wrong:The Red Sox had an offensive powerhouse for years in the middle of their lineup, but now that Manny Ramirez is gone and David Ortiz is regressing, Boston's attack has eroded -- and the problem was illuminated in the series loss to the Angels, when the Red Sox needed 76 at-bats before they hit their first home run. And now Boston has an awkward collection of older sluggers whose defensive skills are diminishing, from third baseman Mike Lowell to right fielder J.D. Drew to catcher Jason Varitek. The Red Sox pitching should be set up well in 2010, with depth in the bullpen and the rotation.

Biggest puzzler on the drawing board:The Red Sox will want to upgrade their offense, but that won't be easy to do. The presumption among many general managers is that Boston is going to wind up with one of the two premier corner outfielders on the free-agent market, current Red Sox LF Jason Bay or Matt Holliday. But the Red Sox are on the hook for a lot of money with Lowell and Ortiz, without really knowing how much either will contribute. And they are looking for a shortstop -- yet again -- because they don't know if Jed Lowrie can hold down the position. Everything that happened in 2009 underscored how crucial the signing of Mark Teixeira could have been for Boston, because the Red Sox need everything that Teixeira would have provided: youth, strong defense and a worthy heir to the Ortiz/Ramirez legacy in the middle of the lineup. But the Yankees have him for years to come, and the Red Sox won't.



Baseball Prospectus' take


A first-round exit against the Angels makes their status as the Team of the Decade iffier, but a 95-win season and the AL wild card are nothing to be ashamed of. In a way, it's hard to believe the team was this successful -- the Sox had major holes in the lineup and loads of pitching injuries and ineffectiveness to deal with -- but dominance at home (a 56-25 record) pushed them over the top, as well as a 16-2 showing against Baltimore that buoyed both their record and their run differential (+62 against the O's, +74 against the rest of the league combined). Their pitching staff was second in the AL in strikeouts, which helped them overcome Fenway's hitter-friendly park factor, and they ranked sixth in the AL in walks allowed while they gave up the third-fewest homers. The offense was the star at home, though, with a collective .284/.365/.498 (average/OBP/slugging) -- this was accomplished despite having Julio Lugo, Nick Green, Casey Kotchman, Varitek and others generating little productivity. Some players, like Lowell, did most of their damage at home (.307/.344/.588 at Fenway, .276/.331/.382 elsewhere) -- so it's no wonder the team was under .500 on the road, where they hit .257/.340/.414 as a unit. --Marc Normandin, Baseball Prospectus



Key stat: .679


That's Boston's defensive efficiency for 2009, a reflection of the fact that the defense was three shades of awful. They ranked alongside the league's worst in terms of defensive efficiency (converting just under 68 percent of balls in play into outs); this hurt them outside of Fenway, where their bats could not make up for this handicap by bludgeoning their opponents into submission. Lowell's hip surgery restricted his movement to one side, cutting into his once-impressive range. Bay hasn't moved well in the outfield since knee surgery a few years ago. Jacoby Ellsbury is fast and makes some impressive-looking plays, but he takes awful routes and plays deep because he doesn't go back on the ball well -- with Vladimir Guerrero's game-winning hit on Sunday a prime example. The biggest disaster may have been shortstop, simply because the Sox tried to fix it repeatedly. If you pieced together a Franken-shortstop from parts of Lugo, Lowrie and Green, the creature's glove would still be its most horrifying aspect. -- Normandin, Baseball Prospectus



Rumor Central


Trades: Despite his Game 3 meltdown, Jonathan Papelbon is a compelling closer -- and this is an area where the Sox have plenty of system depth. GM Theo Epstein could dangle Papelbon and consider letting Daniel Bard try to nail down the job in the spring.



Free Agency: The Sox could very well offer identical deals to Matt Holliday and Jason Bay and see who faxes back a signature first. But they're also going to have to consider other bats, and at prominent positions. Forget that Lowell and Ortiz both come off the books in 2010 -- what about a dark horse at, say, shortstop? Epstein could get Miguel Tejada on a "win now" discount deal to play short and spell Lowell at third. Why Tejada? Well, short is a hole for the Sox, as usual, and aside from Marco Scutaro, he's the only serious free-agent bat at the position.

Jason Bay had a monster year, so will likely get monster money. The question is -- will it be from John Henry and company?

Who 2 Watch 4:
Clay Buchholz, RHP (age: 25)


The Boston minor league system is in a bit of a transitional period. The Red Sox have an impressive array of talent at the lower levels, but those are players who are still multiple years away. Those who are close are back-of-the-rotation types like Junichi Tazawa and Michael Bowden, or outfielder Josh Reddick, who doesn't really have anywhere to play. The good news is that many scouts believe that 2010 is the year that Buchholz becomes the star people have thought he'd become for more than two years. The Red Sox won nine of his last 10 regular-season starts, as Buchholz found the confidence to trust his stuff, throw more strikes and not depend solely on his fastball alone. Josh Beckett and Jon Lester gave the Red Sox a good one-two punch in 2009, and next year, Buchholz could make it one-two-three. --Kevin Goldstein, Baseball Prospectus




Draft recap



Signed: 26 of 50
Spent: Around $6.5 million



Hits: Reymond Fuentes, CF (No. 28) and potentially Madison Younginer, RHP (No. 228): Fuentes is a potential difference-maker at the plate, on the bases and in the field, and Younginer touched 98 mph this spring in high school.



Miss: David Renfroe, SS (No. 107): Renfroe received $1.4 million and could end up on the mound if his bat doesn't develop, which would certainly delay any arrival in the big leagues. -- Jason A. Churchill



The bottom line


What started as a clear bid at contending morphed into a transition year. The Red Sox acquired Victor Martinez to help answer their needs at DH, first base and catcher. He has a club option for 2010 that likely will be picked up. Lowell has one year left on his deal, but the Sox have been worried about his hip, so a dip into the free-agent market for a first or third baseman would not be surprising. Bay's contract is up this year -- if the Sox let the popular slugger walk to find a better-fielding corner outfielder (or switch Ellsbury to left to find someone for center), then you know they are taking improving the defense seriously. The pitching staff could use that assist, but at least it looks like Buchholz has earned himself a spot in the rotation for good, giving the Sox four strong starters. The Sox can compete in 2010 even without everything in place -- 2009 proved that -- but given the talent coming up in the AL East and West, they'll need to shore things up to be the best team in the majors again anytime soon.

 

[PantherPaul]

Atlanta
Buster Olney's take


What went wrong: We saw in September how good the 2009 Braves could be. Their potential was there all along, built on Bobby Cox's strong starting pitching. But it simply took too long for Atlanta to generate consistent run support -- partly because of the struggles of Kelly Johnson and Jeff Francoeur (before he was traded), partly because Nate McLouth didn't move over in a trade from Pittsburgh until June, and partly because Chipper Jones had the worst season of his career. The future Hall of Famer is batting a mere .263, with 18 homers and 71 RBIs in 142 games; he has talked about walking away from the game if he has another season like he did in 2009.


Biggest puzzler on the drawing board: Atlanta needs a bopper. It's maybe the one missing ingredient. The Braves appear poised for a breakthrough season, in what Cox says will be his last year as the team's manager. Atlanta is flush with starting pitching, from Javier Vazquez to Tommy Hanson, and has some excellent young prospects expected to rise into the major leagues -- outfielder Jason Heyward, most notably. A 20-year-old slugger with exceptional plate discipline, Heyward reminded his Double-A manager of Darryl Strawberry. Atlanta is expected by rival GMs to be very aggressive in its search for a right-handed hitter, whether it be a left or right fielder or a first or third baseman. "That's a team that has the pitching to run down the Phillies next year," a longtime NL scout said.



Baseball Prospectus' take


The Braves are pretty much where PECOTA predicted them to be -- 87 wins and just a few games out of the playoffs. How they got there is a little more surprising, though, as the team has both scored and allowed significantly fewer runs than PECOTA had expected. On the offensive side, Johnson was a huge disappointment, falling almost 40 points short of his projected EqA (.287 to .250), while Jones finally showed some signs of slowing down. His average has fallen nearly 100 points despite an increase in playing time. The pitchers have given them a much happier story, though. While Derek Lowe has had a bit of a down year (by his standards, at least), and Jair Jurrjens' so-so peripherals don't quite match his minuscule ERA, they've been counterbalanced by the resurgent Javier Vazquez -- who had the best year of his career -- along with the midseason additions of Tommy Hanson and Tim Hudson. --Shawn Hoffman, Baseball Prospectus



Key stat: 2.84


That is Javier Vazquez's QuikERA, which is tied for the best in baseball along with that of Tim Lincecum. Vazquez has been the best of a very good bunch, as Atlanta's revamped rotation and quietly outstanding bullpen has led them to the best team QuikERA in the major leagues (although the Yankees would be first after adjusting for park and league). Lowe was merely solid in his first season in Atlanta, and Kenshin Kawakami was a couple of rungs below that -- but Vazquez, Hanson and Hudson have been outstanding. Meanwhile, Rafael Soriano, Mike Gonzalez, Peter Moylan, Kris Medlen and Eric O'Flaherty have combined for over 300 innings out of the 'pen, with outstanding peripherals and -- aside from Medlen -- solid ERAs. All in all, the Braves will end up allowing almost 150 fewer runs this year than in 2008, despite a middle-of-the-pack defense that actually took a few steps back this year. --Shawn Hoffman, Baseball Prospectus



Rumor Central


Free agency: Atlanta is abuzz with word that the Braves will take aim at a big right-handed bat. How about Dan Uggla or even Miguel Tejada? Outfield offers big targets like Matt Holliday and Jason Bay, but you'd think the Braves would stay cheaper. Hello, Gary Sheffield? We'll see, but a bat is surely in the equation.



Money: The Braves face an intriguing decision as to whether they will exercise Hudson's $12 million option for next season. David O'Brien of the Atlanta Journal Constitution noted this week that the Braves could end up keeping Hudson even if they decline the option. Why? Well, the right-hander has built his dream house in nearby Auburn, Ala., and might take "quite a bit less" to stay with the Braves.



Who 2 Watch 4:
Jason Heyward, OF (age 20)


As a 19-year-old who played most of his previous season at Low-A, Heyward stayed with the big league club for a surprisingly long time this spring -- and it was later relayed to me that the primary reason was that manager Bobby Cox just liked watching him play so much. He may get that opportunity much more often after Heyward hit .322/.408/.555 in the minors, including a .352/.446/.611 mark for Double-A Mississippi. He's the best position-playing prospect in the game, and despite his youth, he'll be given every opportunity to win a big league job this coming spring. --Kevin Goldstein, Baseball Prospectus




Draft recap



Signed: 24 of 49
Spent:Not enough. Atlanta gave the No. 7 pick (P Mike Minor) $2.42 million and then failed to give any other selection more than $405K. That's a sign that the organization went cheap, although it's worth noting that the club did not have a second-round pick.



Hit: David Hale, RHP (No. 87 overall): Despite rarely wowing anyone with numbers, Hale has some upside with his raw stuff -- a low-90s fastball and potentially plus slider.



Miss: Mike Minor, LHP (No. 7 overall): Anytime you use a top-10 pick to take a college pitcher with an upside as a No. 3 starter, you probably went cheap. Either that or your scouting department spent too much time in the sun. --Jason A. Churchill



The bottom line


The Braves are obviously disappointed to be going home early, but all things considered, 2009 was a massive improvement on 2008, and they could easily be the favorites to win the NL East going into 2010 if they can improve in a couple of spots. The outfield, for one, wouldn't be a bad place to start; Garret Anderson's .257 EqA leaves a lot to be desired, and the Braves would be hard-pressed to find someone who will give them less value in left field next year. As for right field, 2010 will likely be the start of the Jason Heyward era in Atlanta, which should give them a boost over this year's Jeff Francoeur/Ryan Church/Matt Diaz triumvirate. If the rotation can hold some of its gains, and Chipper Jones can at least maintain his current level, the Braves could be very, very tough.

 

[PantherPaul]

Dodgers for franchise and Captain Morgan

A young nucleus will keep L.A. in the NL West driver's seat, but the Rockies are right in the rearview mirror.

Buster Olney's Take
What went wrong: Not much, really. Despite an injury to Chad Billingsley and the drug-related suspension of Manny Ramirez, the Dodgers had an exceptional season, winning a NL-high 95 games and essentially standing as the wire-to-wire winner in the NL West. Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier took their next steps into stardom and Clayton Kershaw provided more evidence that he could become one of the sport's dominant lefties.



Biggest puzzler on the drawing board: Actually, there are a lot of lingering questions, and first and foremost is whether the marital problems of the team's owner and its recently fired CEO -- Frank McCourt and his wife Jamie -- will paralyze the Dodgers in the same way that the divorce of John Moores devastated the financial planning of the San Diego Padres. It may be that the legal wrangling could affect the Dodgers' effort to fill their most glaring hole, the lack of a No. 1-type starter who can lead a staff. In the aftermath of the Dodgers' elimination, Joe Torre mentioned that his team had managed to plug along without having a clear ace, but if L.A. is to advance to the World Series for the first time since 1988, it needs someone like a Roy Halladay (the best pitcher likely to be available in trade) or a John Lackey (the best free-agent pitcher). It may not be clear for weeks whether GM Ned Colletti will be in position to either spend in prospects or in cash what would be required to land that type of talent. The bullpen and lineup should be strong, and eventually, Kershaw will become an ace -- but he's only 21, and the rotation needs help.



Baseball Prospectus' Take
When our initial PECOTA projections were unveiled in mid-February, the Dodgers' overall chances at reaching the postseason only stood around 29 percent, with an eight-win gap separating them from the Diamondbacks. By the time the season opened, their odds were up to 57 percent (48 percent division, 9 percent wild card) thanks to the late-February addition of Orlando Hudson and the early March re-signing of Ramirez.



Those two deals, along with the early February signing of Randy Wolf, came at substantial discounts in a bad economy. This was a feather in Colletti's cap, as he was able to reduce the Opening Day payroll by about $18 million relative to 2008.



As it was, PECOTA's 93-win forecast was pretty accurate, particularly given that it nailed both the Dodgers' ranking as the league's stingiest pitching staff (they tied with the Giants for the fewest runs allowed at 3.77 per game) and fourth-highest scoring offense (4.81 runs per game). While Billingsley didn't live up to the system's expectations due to a bad second half, Wolf put together a career year and Kershaw pitched well beyond his years, posting the league's lowest hit rate (6.26 per nine), second-best homer rate (0.37 per nine) and fifth-best strikeout rate (9.7 per nine) and ERA (2.79). Jonathan Broxton led the league with 4.9 WXRL while anchoring the circuit's top bullpen.



As for the offense, its .273 EqA ranked second in the league. Ramirez was projected to rank seventh in the league with a .315 EqA, and while his 50-game suspension prevented him from getting enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title, his .327 EqA would have ranked fifth. Ethier (.301) and Kemp (.298) both beat their projections slightly as well while becoming the first Dodgers to top 20 homers since 2005.

--Jay Jaffe, Baseball Prospectus



Key Stat: .346
Despite playing in one of the league's top pitchers' parks, the Dodgers put up the NL's highest OBP as well as batting average (.270), enabling them to overcome a meager .412 slugging percentage (seventh in the league) and the third-lowest percentage of runs scored via homers (30.1). There simply wasn't an easy out to be had in their lineup; of their eight regulars, only leadoff man Rafael Furcal (.335) finished below .350, and even he came on strong late in the year. Though Ramirez (.418) cooled off after his suspension, he nonetheless set the tone, walking 71 times in 104 games; his 21 intentional passes ranked third in the league behind Albert Pujols and Adrian Gonzalez despite his lengthy absence. Juan Pierre (.365) filled in admirably during that 50-game stretch and elsewhere off the bench. Blake (.363) set a career high. Kemp (.352) and Ethier (.361) set career highs in walks as well as homers, a sign of growing respect in the eyes of opposing pitchers. Russell Martin (.352) and James Loney (.357) kept the line moving despite mysterious power outages which raised questions about their future viability.

--Jay Jaffe, Baseball Prospectus



Rumor Central
Trades: Halladay may be the biggest target on the trade market, as he's all but a lame duck in Toronto, but what about Josh Johnson of Florida? As ESPN.com's Jayson Stark told us, Johnson wants a multiyear deal from a team that gives long-term deals to pitchers about as often as it sells out its home park. Marlins 2B Dan Uggla is arbitration-eligible and almost certainly will be available in a deal, as well -- or how about a package?



Free Agency: It seems like the Dodgers have half the market for free-agent second basemen coming off their roster. Ronnie Belliard, Mark Loretta and Hudson are all due for the open waters. But with arbitration raises for Martin, Ethier, Billingsley, Kemp, Sherrill, Broxton, and Hong-Chih Kuo about to make dents in L.A.'s payroll flexibility, the Dodgers won't have a bundle to spend to fill the hole.


Who 2 Watch 4: People in other teams' double-knits
One of the more disturbing aspect of the Dodgers' postseason struggles is the price they've paid for them in terms of prospects. Last year's Casey Blake deal and this year's trade for reliever George Sherrill cost the team catcher Carlos Santana and third baseman Josh Bell, who would arguably be the organization's top two prospects right now and, more importantly, their only nearly big league ready talent. The Dodgers' system isn't as strong as it once was, and while there is a good amount of talent at the lower levels, there's nothing close that will be able to make an impact for the team in 2010, other than the kind of players Dodgers fans have seen for a while. Infielder Blake DeWitt, for example, posts a career .257/.333/.384 line in the majors and doesn't project to get much better than that.

--Kevin Goldstein, Baseball Prospectus



The Bottom Line
This will be a big winter for the Dodgers, as Kemp, Loney and Billingsley will reach arbitration eligibility for the first time, and Ethier and Martin for the second time. There's some talk of the Dodgers approaching Kemp and Ethier with multiyear deals, but such negotiations would take place against the backdrop of the club's uncertain ownership situation, not to mention a sluggish economy.



While the team does have considerable cash coming off the books in the form of Jason Schmidt's desiccated remains, Colletti will have hard choices to make when it comes to free agents. At the very least, he'll have to fill holes at second and in the middle of the rotation, though given his track record, that may not be a bad thing. Ultimately, the combination of an outstanding young nucleus and the league's top attendance should keep L.A. in the NL West's driver's seat, though the talent gap between the Dodgers and Rockies has narrowed considerably.

 

[Franchise]

Dodgers .

thanks Paul

the divorce thing is already real ugly. Mccourt is a douchebag, he fired his wife the day after the papers were filed and had the locks changed on her office so she couldn't get her stuff. goes to show you shouldn't work with your spouse, not to mention own a fucking baseball team.

I'd like to see the Dodgers lock up Martin, Ethier, Kemp, Broxton and Loney. Sign Ugla and get a solid starter and it will be another good year next year