CosmikCatNip
of myth and lore
Panthers must overcome Vick demonsBy Scouts, Inc.
Why To Watch
This game shapes up as a showdown between two of the top three teams vying for supremacy in the highly competitive NFC South. The Falcons enter Sunday's contest with some extra days of rest and preparation, following one of their most impressive all-around performances against the Lions last Thursday.
QB Michael Vick is playing the best football of his NFL career, but will be tested this week by a Carolina defense that also seems to be peaking. Atlanta's run defense has been a sore spot for most of the 2005 season, but the unit tightened up versus Detroit last week and will need to build on that momentum in order to keep RBs Stephen Davis and DeShaun Foster under wraps.
When the Falcons have the ball
Rushing: The last time the Panthers beat the Falcons was in September 2003 and that was with an injured Vick watching from the sidelines. In the three games since, Vick has torched the Panthers for 244 rushing yards. The Panthers could catch a bit of a break this time around. Vick re-aggravated a left knee injury versus the Lions last Thursday and played gingerly as a result. The extra time off should help, but Vick might not be as aggressive or confident in his ability to take off and run this week.
The Panthers will still face a tough challenge trying to stop the run, as RBs Warrick Dunn and T.J. Duckett form an imposing tandem on the ground. Dunn, who typically handles two thirds of the rushing load, is running with as much confidence as he ever has before. The nine-year veteran is reading his blocks decisively, while showing impressive vision, burst and toughness for his size.
The Falcons offensive line has also done an outstanding job of run blocking. The group as a whole lacks ideal athletic ability, but make up for it with impressive size, strength and technique. One key for the Falcons this week will be to keep the Panthers defensive line off-balance. The Falcons need to do a good job of mixing up their play calls and sneaking in some draws and screens, in order to exploit DEs Julius Peppers and Mike Rucker for their occasional over-aggressiveness.
Another key will be for OGs Matt Lehr and Kynam Forney to handle DTs Brentson Buckner and Jordan Carstens one-on-one. OC Todd McClure will need to be freed up, in order to help seal off MLB Dan Morgan and WLB Will Witherspoon on the second level.
Passing: Vick's recent efficiency as a passer has been impressive. In the four games since the Week 8 bye, Vick has completed nearly 62 percent of his passes, with seven touchdowns compared to just one interception. The biggest problem area for the Panthers' defense versus the Falcons in the past has been bottling up Vick. On top of the yardage that Vick gained on the ground, he also has used his feet and scrambling ability to buy second-chance passing opportunities.
In order to limit Vick's effectiveness as a runner and scrambler, the entire front four of the Panthers must do a better job with gap-discipline. Unlike most other games, DEs Peppers and Rucker, and DTs Buckner and Carstens, need to focus more on shutting down their respective lanes, rather than exploding up the field as pass rushers. The defensive units that have the most success versus Vick are the ones that don't even bother to pressure him, and play a two-gap technique -- similar to a run defense -- when Vick drops to pass.
The one advantage the Panthers have this time around is the addition of LDC Ken Lucas, who has emerged as one of the more reliable man-to-man cover corners in the entire league this season. Lucas' size, speed, agility and craftiness give him a great advantage versus rookie WR Roddy White, who has been inserted into the starting lineup due to Dez White's injury.
If Lucas holds up as well as we expect versus Roddy White, it will free up DSs Mike Minter and Marlon McCree to be more aggressive versus the run and more versatile in the passing game. Occasionally, Minter and McCree will be turned loose on the blitz, but more often than not they will work a "high-low" zone coverage versus pass-catching TE Alge Crumpler, who continues to be Vick's go-to-guy in key third- down situations and in the red zone, while also providing deep-middle support to LDC Chris Gamble in his matchup versus second-year WR Michael Jenkins.
When the Panthers have the ball
Rushing: The Panthers remain dedicated to the run, but Foster is now handling far more carries than Davis. Foster has proven to be the more explosive of the two backs, as he shows more initial burst and a better second gear. However, neither back has been able to provide much of a homerun threat for the Panthers' offense so far this season. Because the team lacks depth at wide receiver, it spends a good majority of its time in traditional two-receiver, two-back and one-tight end sets, limiting the ability to spread out opposing defenses.
Another issue for the Panthers is their lack of athletic ability along the offensive line. The unit has very good size and strength to generate a surge upfront, but it is not often that the Panthers get great second-level blocking from offensive linemen in the running game. As a result, the Panthers are able to wear down opposing defenses by churning out a lot of three-yard runs, but rarely get a big play from Foster or Davis on the ground.
Despite the Falcons' improved play versus the run in Detroit last week, they do not match up well in this facet of the game. Carolina has a significant size advantage upfront and must use it to its advantage by heavily emphasizing a power-rushing attack. SLB Michael Boley will have some trouble getting off blocks from TE Kris Mangum, and it will be important for veteran OC Jeff Mitchell and FB Brad Hoover to do a good job of sealing off MLB Keith Brooking and WLB Demorrio Williams in space.
Rod Coleman and Chad Lavalais are disruptive when fresh, but are undersized, one-gap defensive tackles who will get pushed around by bigger, stronger OGs Mike Wahle and Tutan Reyes as the game progresses. The Panthers are unlikely to rip off many big runs versus the Falcons this week, but they should be able to use their size upfront and depth at running back to grind out 150-plus rushing yards, which will help them control the tempo of this game.
Passing: The biggest concern for the Panthers in the passing game will be the protection of QB Jake Delhomme. The Panthers have a distinct advantage in the trenches when running the ball, but the script flips in pass protection versus the quick and athletic Falcons' defensive front. Mitchell will need to do a great job of helping out both guards -- Wahle and Reyes -- in their matchups versus Coleman and Lavalais.
ROT Jordan Gross should hold up fine versus LDE Patrick Kerney, but LOT Travelle Wharton may need help in his perimeter matchup versus veteran RDE Brady Smith, who missed last game with a toe injury and is again a question mark for this week. The Falcons like to occasionally utilize Williams' speed by turning him loose as a pass rusher, so it will be important for Foster and Davis to do a consistent job of picking up the blitz. If the Panthers fall behind early and are forced to throw from behind, protecting Delhomme could become a massive problem.
Also working in the Falcons' favor is the presence of shutdown DC DeAngelo Hall, who should be able to hold up one-on-one versus Delhomme's favorite target, WR Steve Smith. In order to counter this potential matchup issue, look for the Panthers to move Smith around and vary his alignment. Even if Hall does not follow Smith all over the field, he still gives the Falcons an advantage, because his ability to lock down No. 2 WR Keary Colbert without help will allow the Panthers to roll their coverage to RDC Jason Webster's side, when he is matched up versus Smith.
Foster and TEs Mangum and Michael Gaines have been decent underneath weapons for Delhomme to rely upon, but the team is getting almost no help from its secondary receivers. If Colbert, Ricky Proehl and Rod Gardner are unable to exploit man-to-man coverage again this week, Delhomme's struggles will continue versus a fast, attacking Falcons' pass defense.
Why To Watch
This game shapes up as a showdown between two of the top three teams vying for supremacy in the highly competitive NFC South. The Falcons enter Sunday's contest with some extra days of rest and preparation, following one of their most impressive all-around performances against the Lions last Thursday.
QB Michael Vick is playing the best football of his NFL career, but will be tested this week by a Carolina defense that also seems to be peaking. Atlanta's run defense has been a sore spot for most of the 2005 season, but the unit tightened up versus Detroit last week and will need to build on that momentum in order to keep RBs Stephen Davis and DeShaun Foster under wraps.
When the Falcons have the ball
Rushing: The last time the Panthers beat the Falcons was in September 2003 and that was with an injured Vick watching from the sidelines. In the three games since, Vick has torched the Panthers for 244 rushing yards. The Panthers could catch a bit of a break this time around. Vick re-aggravated a left knee injury versus the Lions last Thursday and played gingerly as a result. The extra time off should help, but Vick might not be as aggressive or confident in his ability to take off and run this week.
The Panthers will still face a tough challenge trying to stop the run, as RBs Warrick Dunn and T.J. Duckett form an imposing tandem on the ground. Dunn, who typically handles two thirds of the rushing load, is running with as much confidence as he ever has before. The nine-year veteran is reading his blocks decisively, while showing impressive vision, burst and toughness for his size.
The Falcons offensive line has also done an outstanding job of run blocking. The group as a whole lacks ideal athletic ability, but make up for it with impressive size, strength and technique. One key for the Falcons this week will be to keep the Panthers defensive line off-balance. The Falcons need to do a good job of mixing up their play calls and sneaking in some draws and screens, in order to exploit DEs Julius Peppers and Mike Rucker for their occasional over-aggressiveness.
Another key will be for OGs Matt Lehr and Kynam Forney to handle DTs Brentson Buckner and Jordan Carstens one-on-one. OC Todd McClure will need to be freed up, in order to help seal off MLB Dan Morgan and WLB Will Witherspoon on the second level.
Passing: Vick's recent efficiency as a passer has been impressive. In the four games since the Week 8 bye, Vick has completed nearly 62 percent of his passes, with seven touchdowns compared to just one interception. The biggest problem area for the Panthers' defense versus the Falcons in the past has been bottling up Vick. On top of the yardage that Vick gained on the ground, he also has used his feet and scrambling ability to buy second-chance passing opportunities.
In order to limit Vick's effectiveness as a runner and scrambler, the entire front four of the Panthers must do a better job with gap-discipline. Unlike most other games, DEs Peppers and Rucker, and DTs Buckner and Carstens, need to focus more on shutting down their respective lanes, rather than exploding up the field as pass rushers. The defensive units that have the most success versus Vick are the ones that don't even bother to pressure him, and play a two-gap technique -- similar to a run defense -- when Vick drops to pass.
The one advantage the Panthers have this time around is the addition of LDC Ken Lucas, who has emerged as one of the more reliable man-to-man cover corners in the entire league this season. Lucas' size, speed, agility and craftiness give him a great advantage versus rookie WR Roddy White, who has been inserted into the starting lineup due to Dez White's injury.
If Lucas holds up as well as we expect versus Roddy White, it will free up DSs Mike Minter and Marlon McCree to be more aggressive versus the run and more versatile in the passing game. Occasionally, Minter and McCree will be turned loose on the blitz, but more often than not they will work a "high-low" zone coverage versus pass-catching TE Alge Crumpler, who continues to be Vick's go-to-guy in key third- down situations and in the red zone, while also providing deep-middle support to LDC Chris Gamble in his matchup versus second-year WR Michael Jenkins.
When the Panthers have the ball
Rushing: The Panthers remain dedicated to the run, but Foster is now handling far more carries than Davis. Foster has proven to be the more explosive of the two backs, as he shows more initial burst and a better second gear. However, neither back has been able to provide much of a homerun threat for the Panthers' offense so far this season. Because the team lacks depth at wide receiver, it spends a good majority of its time in traditional two-receiver, two-back and one-tight end sets, limiting the ability to spread out opposing defenses.
Another issue for the Panthers is their lack of athletic ability along the offensive line. The unit has very good size and strength to generate a surge upfront, but it is not often that the Panthers get great second-level blocking from offensive linemen in the running game. As a result, the Panthers are able to wear down opposing defenses by churning out a lot of three-yard runs, but rarely get a big play from Foster or Davis on the ground.
Despite the Falcons' improved play versus the run in Detroit last week, they do not match up well in this facet of the game. Carolina has a significant size advantage upfront and must use it to its advantage by heavily emphasizing a power-rushing attack. SLB Michael Boley will have some trouble getting off blocks from TE Kris Mangum, and it will be important for veteran OC Jeff Mitchell and FB Brad Hoover to do a good job of sealing off MLB Keith Brooking and WLB Demorrio Williams in space.
Rod Coleman and Chad Lavalais are disruptive when fresh, but are undersized, one-gap defensive tackles who will get pushed around by bigger, stronger OGs Mike Wahle and Tutan Reyes as the game progresses. The Panthers are unlikely to rip off many big runs versus the Falcons this week, but they should be able to use their size upfront and depth at running back to grind out 150-plus rushing yards, which will help them control the tempo of this game.
Passing: The biggest concern for the Panthers in the passing game will be the protection of QB Jake Delhomme. The Panthers have a distinct advantage in the trenches when running the ball, but the script flips in pass protection versus the quick and athletic Falcons' defensive front. Mitchell will need to do a great job of helping out both guards -- Wahle and Reyes -- in their matchups versus Coleman and Lavalais.
ROT Jordan Gross should hold up fine versus LDE Patrick Kerney, but LOT Travelle Wharton may need help in his perimeter matchup versus veteran RDE Brady Smith, who missed last game with a toe injury and is again a question mark for this week. The Falcons like to occasionally utilize Williams' speed by turning him loose as a pass rusher, so it will be important for Foster and Davis to do a consistent job of picking up the blitz. If the Panthers fall behind early and are forced to throw from behind, protecting Delhomme could become a massive problem.
Also working in the Falcons' favor is the presence of shutdown DC DeAngelo Hall, who should be able to hold up one-on-one versus Delhomme's favorite target, WR Steve Smith. In order to counter this potential matchup issue, look for the Panthers to move Smith around and vary his alignment. Even if Hall does not follow Smith all over the field, he still gives the Falcons an advantage, because his ability to lock down No. 2 WR Keary Colbert without help will allow the Panthers to roll their coverage to RDC Jason Webster's side, when he is matched up versus Smith.
Foster and TEs Mangum and Michael Gaines have been decent underneath weapons for Delhomme to rely upon, but the team is getting almost no help from its secondary receivers. If Colbert, Ricky Proehl and Rod Gardner are unable to exploit man-to-man coverage again this week, Delhomme's struggles will continue versus a fast, attacking Falcons' pass defense.
