modern offensive trends & our #2 WR next year

[finleye]

To me, the best offenses in the league are the one's who've (i) got the best collection of talent & (ii) embraced the information age - i.e., each week they are able to master the most amount of information (formations/route trees/protections/defenses) and process it in the shortest amount of time (usually via the hurry up) to allow them to stay a step or two ahead of the defense. These offenses, imo, have the greatest 'dynamic range' compared to the rest of the league: the most weapons, most thorough preparation, most consistent execution, and the most real-time schematic flexibility.

Teams like the pre-2011 Colts, the Saints, the Packers, & the Patriots all like to employ a faster tempo offense with a wide variety of weapons to exploit. And their schemes seem to be a hybridization of many different forms of offense from the past: the spread and/or run & shoot, Croyell's vertical passing/power running, West Coast principles, Power I + play action, wildcat and/or the zone read option, etc...

The more looks you have at your disposal, while also minimizing the number of subsitutions needed (constrained only by your personnel's lack of versatility), the more you can possibly deceive and/or confuse your opponent before the snap. In other words, the less you have to substitute different personnel groups, the less you limit the available plays from your playbook when in the hurry up. Modern offense are, in my mind, caught up in an arms race of sorts to see who can effectively operate the most up tempo offense given the least amount of different personnel groupings (which has the added bonus of wearing out defensive line, taking advantage of their general lack of aerobic fitness). Naturally, the tight end becomes emphasized in such offenses; they are regarded by some as the queen's of the proverbial chessboard. The rest of the roster is then tailored to this offense, with the defense built on the assumption you will be playing with a lead.

The Steelers are in a different category to me, one which I think the Panthers should continue to try and emulate. The Steelers' offense emphasizes physicality yet relies more on the passing game than it does on the running game. Dont get me wrong, they run it and run it well, but these days, the run is ultimately there to supplement the pass. Mike Wallace is arguably the best deep threat in the game, and Antonio Brown is a severely underrated #2 who has tremendous run after the catch ability (he also doubles as the punt returner), while veterans Jericho Cotchery & Hines Ward join the emerging Emmanual Saunders to round out Pitt's receiving core.

Plus, the Panthers have already established a pass first offensive identity under Chud. Newton, in fact, gives the Panthers more flexibility in the running department than Big Ben does. I would think, though, that a more physical presence in Legadu Naanee's receiver spot would be an upgrade for this offense. Someone with the strength to break a few tackles would be nice. Hopefully the staff will consider adding someone else to the receiving core, which to me is such a hodge podge group as it is:

Smitty - gamebreaker
Lafell - solid & trending up but may not fit Naanee's role in the long term
Naanee - serviceable
Edwards - enigmatic
Pilares - kickoff returner at worst, but upside is still unclear
Gettis - can only be considered intriguing until he plays & doesnt get hurt


Any possibilities from the upcoming free agent market? How about:

(1) Chaz Schilens (OAK) 6'4" 225 - 70+rec, 900+ yards, 7 TD's in four year career.
(2) Andre Caldwell (CIN) 6'0" 200 - 120+ rec, 1100+ yards, 6 TD's, 73 rushes in four year career.
(3) Josh Morgan (SF) 6'1" 215 - 130+ rec, 1700+ yards, 9 TD's in 4 yr career, 49ers were talking about extending him before he fractured his ankle, played in only 5 games this year.
(4) Early Doucet (ARI) 6'0" 212 - 110+ rec, 1250+ yards, 7 TD's in 4 year career, really broke out this year with 54/689/5, played with Lafell at LSU.
(5) Greg Camarillo (MIN) 6'2" 200 - 141+ rec, 1600+ yards, 5 TD's in five year career, also has 5 ff's on special teams and has returned punts.


Also, assuming Blackmon is gone by #8/9, how about some possible draft prospects: (the italicized quotes have been taken from http://walterfootball.com/draft2012WR.php)

(1) Alshon Jeffery 6'4" 230 (USCe) - I personally have never liked Jeffery. Could someone please inform me what I'm missing? What reasons are there to suggest Jeffery wont be the next Dwayne Jarrett or Mike Williams, a guy with ideal size who cant separate or make enough plays on the ball who could even eat his way out of the league?
(2) Michael Floyd 6'3" 225 (ND) - above average size/speed ratio, below average character concerns, conflicting reports on his route running and technique.
(3) Kendall Wright 5'10" 190 (Baylor) - luxury pick. my favorite wide out in the entire draft. Were we to trade back to #25 with Cleveland, for instance, Wright wouldnt be a big reach.
(4) Dwight Jones 6'4" 220 (UNC) has been discussed as nauseum, not as physical as one might expect but huge catch radius.
(5) Mohammed Sanu 6'2" 215 (Rutgers) - physical player with versatile skill set, would be an asset after the catch. "This year, Sanu has stayed healthy and displayed good speed to go along with his ideal size. He makes tough catches and can get open in all levels of the field."
(6) Marvin McNutt 6'4" 215 (IOWA) - "The 6-foot-4, 215-pounder could have even more production if he played in a better passing offense. McNutt has deceptive speed, good hands and runs good routes. He is capable of making big plays downfield with his speed or his size."
(7) Reuben Randle 6'4" 207 (LSU) - "Randle excels at running slant routes in the short to intermediate part of the field, and that should have a big appeal to teams that run the West Coast offense"
(8) Nick Toon 6'3" 217 (WISC) - top end speed and durability are the concerns here.
(9) Jordan White 6'0" 215 (Western Michigan) - most prolific receiver in college football according to the numbers with 127/1646/16, also a punt returner. Plays bigger than his size.

 

[magnus]

I like Toon, but we have guys like that. We have speedy guys. We have enough people to throw at a defense. Another guy who can do anything and everything would be great, but we have guys to develop.

I don't know about doing a no-huddle here however.

 

[presidence99]

Chaz Schilens is a living, breathing knee injury.

 

[Collin]

Blackmon would be awesome just because he's an elite playmaker and you can never have too many of those. Since he'll be gone by 8/9, I don't think there's a real need to select any WRs in the draft. There just isn't enough cap space to sign someone in free agency when you already have LaFell and Gettis. I appreciate and applaud the effort behind your thread, though.

 

[magnus]

oh, also: Falcons

 

[finleye]

appreciate yall's thoughts.

It was pointed out in the Saints game against the Lions how Sean Payton likes to interchange some of his personnel between outside and inside of the formation, and he does it predominately with Graham and Colston. Each player can line up inside or outside, wherever the best matchup dictates, and when you consider they also have Sproles in the passing game, that's a pretty dynamic set up.

To Magnus: Sure we have guys to develop, but how much value does each player have outside his primary role? Is anybody capable of giving us that inside/outside dynamic like Graham/Colston. For instance, if Olsen gets hurt, who's gonna replace him? He's basically our only guy that fits this description, and it seems you need two in order for there to be any 'interchangability'. Hopefully they'll consider upgrading the receiver position with someone who might provide such flexibility, be it thru the draft or free agency.

I guess my point was we seem to have a receiving core full of specialists: Smitty does everything, but beyond him there isnt much in the cupboard as far as versatility. Pilares is stout, Edwards is average, while everybody else is of the big, physical type, and each seems to have a different specialty: Naanee runs mostly underneath crossing routes, Lafell comes in as the 3rd guy (who tends to get open downfield but I'm not sure exactly what his role ultimately is), Edward returns punts, Pilares returns kicks, Gettis is a vertical threat, while Olsen and Shockey seem to have their distinct roles, as well. Moreover, we know virtually nothing about the other two receivers (Seyi Ajirotutua & Darvin Adams) on the roster. Unless one of these two darkhorses comes out of no where and ends up being much better than expected, Gettis is really the only legitimate wildcard to look forward to.

As for 2012, looks like we carry 6 receivers, so if we assume 3 spots are taken by Smitty, Lafell, & Pilares, we'd have 3 spots left for Gettis, Edwards, Naanee, Ajirotutua, & Adams (with Adams & Ajirotutua most likely still eligible for the practice squad), and its at least possible that Naanee's foot injury could linger longer than expected. So with Edwards needing to finally put up or shut up, and Gettis & Naanee needing to prove they'r back from injury, would it not be worth it to throw one more legitimate prospect at receiver for competition's sake come August? I'm starting to get the feeling Rivera will opt to go cheap on D, relying on his ability to out-evaluate & out-scheme opponents by coaching up lesser talent rather than pumping it up with a lot of expensive commodities.



Some other guys I like who are projected no higher than the 3rd:

Ryan Broyles 5'11" 190 (OU) - injury will drop him, but will it be enough for him to drop to the 4th? career numbers are staggering 349/4586/45. That's forty five friggin touchdowns.
Ryan Swope 6'1" 205 (TA&M) - supplanted older, more highly touted teammate (Jeff Fuller) as the go-to receiver this year. "He has decent size, but also has underrated speed, making him extremely swift in and out of his breaks. His sudden quickness takes defenses by surprise. Swope is very dangerous after he makes a catch and is capable of taking short passes downfield for big gains."
Jeff Fuller 6'3" 215 (TA&M) - "Fuller is a big, physical receiver who presents a large target and catching radius for his quarterbacks. He works the short and intermediate part of the field well. Fuller looks like he would be a very good chain-mover and possession receiver in the NFL. Fuller would make a good Z (flanker) receiver quickly."
AJ Jenkins 6'1" 190 (ILL) - has moved into the mid-rounds with his massive season.
Risard Matthews 6'2" 215 (NEV) - had his QB (Colin Kaepernick), HB, and TE from last year graduate, and he saw his numbers jump dramatically from 56/879/5 to 91/1364/8.
Connor Vernon 6'2" 195 (DOOK) - solid, consistent, & experienced.
Greg Childs 6'3" 215 (ARK) never fully recovered from injury this year, only had 10 receptions. Could be a bargain come April
Danny Coale 6'0" 195 (VT) - the first sentence of ESPN's scouting report of Coale should tell you all you need to know about Danny: "Coale is a Ricky Proehl-type who isn't an elite wide receiver in terms of overall tools, but he is savvy, tough, a good route runner and runs well enough to be a downfield threat. " Additionally, I've read that of all the Hokie receivers, Coale consistently gets the most separation. Tangentially, he also grew up in the same tiny town in southwest Virginia (Lexington) where I went to college (W&L, not VMI), which allows me to say exactly how much of a shithole he grew up in & and how amazing it would really be for a Lexington High School grad to actually make it to the NFL.



PS: since this is a draft centric thread, so I thought I'd share this little nugget from a recent profootballweekly article, which is coincidentally Nolan Nawrocki's first attempt to eat crow regarding his scathing, pre-draft assessment of Newton (http://www.profootballweekly.com/2011/12/26/scouts-eye-newtons-star-shines-brightly). This little blurb was tucked away at the very end, and it is definitely an underrated component of the draft process. For an example that might hit home, remember Bruce Nelson? Woulda been nice to have taken more seriously any medical red flags he may have had.

"Where the Niners have not received enough credit is for their confidence in drafting talent with medical concerns that alarmed other teams around the league. RB Frank Gore is one shining example, but RB Kendall Hunter, who has been excellent in a support role, fell in the same category, sliding to the middle rounds in large part because of an injury-plagued career at Oklahoma State. DT Ray McDonald was a first-round talent at Florida who slid to the third round because of knee concerns. WR Michael Crabtree had a stress fracture in his foot that knocked him down many draft boards, where the Niners happily awaited. Many evaluators wrote off CB Tarell Brown when he was at Texas playing through a leg injury, but the Niners took a chance and it paid off. Understanding where risk meets reward has paid off handsomely for one of the most physically imposing rosters in football."

 

[Tab Loyd]

The ability to create the matchups you want is the key to a dominating offense. The ability to move players inside or outside without losing any advantage is huge, as you say. We got a start on creating difficult matchups this year with the use of the tight ends but this offense is nowhere near what it could be over time. I hope the philosophy is as much Rivera as Chud. Coaching changes will cost us some momentum, but hopefully they won't change direction. I like John Fox, but I'm glad we are where we are.

 

[Collin]

I like Broyles, especially if the Panthers stick with so much of the spread formations, but I don't see it even in the fourth simply because the team doesn't have its third.

 

[reezyd]

Good post.

I would think that Smith, Lafell, Gettis, and Pilares are keepers. I would like to see Seyi stick around and see if he can contribute. I wouldnt mind letting Armanti and Legs walk.

If we go after a free agent, I think Camarillo makes since. He isn't flashy but he is consistent, versatile, and does have pretty good hands... which is more than I can say about Nanee.

 

[Thelt]

If we get a chance to add a playmaker we need to pull the trigger. We have developmental guys so anybody we sign/draft needs to be clearly better than them.