KC Joyner - over/underrated

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Joyner: overrated & underrated
Glenn is bigger threat in Dallas

By KC Joyner
ESPN

This is the second in a series of articles about overrated and underrated players. The rankings are based primarily on the 2006 metrics. This week's topic is overrated and underrated wide receivers.

Glossary

YPA (Yards Per Attempt): A quick barometer of a quarterback/wide receiver/tight end's efficiency.

Depth level: A measurement of how far downfield a receiver was on a pass attempt. It is measured from the point at which the receiver touched the ball. Short passes are 1-10, medium 11-19, deep 20-29, and bombs 30 or more yards downfield.

Success percentage: The percentage of plays on which a player does something successful with the ball. Successful plays include completions (for offensive players), incompletions (for defensive players) and penalty plays that go in the player's favor.

Missed passes: Inaccurate or dropped passes that cause an incompletion. Missed passes are used to measure how successful a QB/WR/TE could have been if not for the mistakes. They also help measure how lucky a cornerback was in coverage.


Overrated wide receivers


Donald Driver

For sheer production, Driver had few equals last year, as he ranked fifth in the league in receptions and in receiving yards.

However, it took a huge number of pass attempts for him to amass these figures. When I rank wide receivers, I place the highest value on consistency and explosiveness. Driver certainly wasn't that explosive, as his 7.6 YPA ranked him 48th among wide receivers (of 67 qualifiers).

His 10.3 YPA on bomb passes (30-plus yards downfield) ranked him 39th in the league, and his 10.1 YPA on deep passes (20-29 yards) ranked him 44th.

Driver's consistency also left something to be desired. His success percentage, which used to be Driver's calling card, plummeted to a meager 57.6 percent last year, his lowest total in the four years I have been tracking metrics. He also had the most dropped passes of any wide receiver, and his dropped pass percentage (14.4) was the 12th worst in the NFL.

I'm not saying Driver is a bad wide receiver. I just think metrics such as these did not warrant the Pro Bowl starter slot he garnered last year.

Chris Chambers

Chambers isn't considered a great receiver, but his metrics indicate he wasn't even a good receiver last year. Chambers had the lowest YPA (5.1) and success percentage (44.8) of any wide receiver in the NFL in 2006. He ranked no higher than 49th in YPA at any depth level, so he lacked production across the board.

Chambers was hampered by bad quarterback play, but 14 of his 24 missed pass plays last year were drops. Even if some of those other 10 passes had been completed, though, it still wouldn't have brought his overall metrics back up to a respectable level.


Honorable mention


Randy Moss: He'll have to dramatically improve on his meager 6.2 YPA to keep the Patriots happy.

Greg Jennings: He is a Favre favorite, but his success percentage (45.2) was the second-lowest in the league.

Wes Welker: He is being touted as a vastly underrated player, but his 7.2 YPA last year ranked 55th in the league.

Torry Holt: He is one of my all-time favorite wide receivers, but his 7.5 YPA and 55.9 success percentage were his worst numbers in the four years I've been doing this. He also didn't deserve a starting spot in the Pro Bowl.


Underrated wide receivers


Terry Glenn

Terrell Owens gets the most press in Dallas, but the metrics indicate Glenn was the better receiver in 2006, and it wasn't even close. Glenn had the third-best overall YPA, the ninth-best bomb pass YPA and the seventh-best medium pass YPA.

Contrast that with Owens' ranking in overall YPA (40th), bomb pass YPA (37th) and medium pass YPA (34th), and it is clear Glenn is the more consistent and explosive receiver. Owens is still a productive player, as evidenced by his 13 touchdowns, but Glenn is the far more reliable receiver.

Reggie Brown

Donte Stallworth (who left via free agency) and Kevin Curtis (who signed with the Eagles) have received most of the attention in Philadelphia this offseason, but if the 2006 metrics are any indication, the breakout receiver could be Brown. He ranked 12th in the league with a 9.6 YPA last year, putting him in the company of Reggie Wayne and Darrell Jackson.

He also ranked in the top 22 in bomb and deep pass YPA and had the sixth-highest medium pass YPA. Opposing defenses might be paying a lot of attention to Curtis this season, and Brown's metrics indicate he could make them pay for it.


Honorable mention


Bryant Johnson: He has been an inconsistent player for most of his career, but had a strong season last year, posting a 10.5 YPA.

Santonio Holmes: His 10.5 short pass YPA was not only the best in the league, but ranked 2.5 yards higher than the second-best receiver in that category.

Mark Clayton: His 33.9 bomb pass YPA was the highest in the NFL last season.

D.J. Hackett: Hackett ranked 10th in overall YPA (9.7), and first in medium pass YPA (15.1) and success percentage (84.6).

 

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Shockey failing to make deep impact

By KC Joyner
ESPN

This is the first of a series of articles covering the most overrated and underrated players in the NFL. The criteria I used was contrasting the player's 2006 metrics with his perceived performance level.

This week's list features overrated and underrated tight ends.

Glossary

YPA (Yards Per Attempt): A quick barometer of a quarterback/wide receiver/tight end's efficiency.

Depth level: A measurement of how far downfield a receiver was on a pass attempt. It is measured from the point at which the receiver touched the ball. Short passes are 1-10 yards downfield, medium 11-19, deep 20-29 and bombs are 30 or more yards downfield.

Success Percentage: The percentage of plays a player does something successful with the ball. Successful plays include completions (for offensive players), incompletions (for defensive players) and penalty plays that go in the player's favor.


Overrated tight ends


Jeremy Shockey

Shockey was voted to the Pro Bowl last year, but the metrics indicate he didn't deserve the selection. Shockey ranked 23rd in yards per attempt among qualifying tight ends last year (5.6). He ranked last in medium pass YPA and 18th in short pass YPA.

Shockey is perceived to be an excellent downfield threat when lining up as a wide receiver, but that is also a mirage. He had a 4.7 YPA on passes thrown to him when he was flexed out, a total that placed him next to last in that category.

In a nutshell, Shockey's YPA figures place him more in the company of Randal Williams and Alex Smith, not Jason Witten and Alge Crumpler (the other two NFC Pro Bowl tight ends in 2006).

Randy McMichael

This is the second consecutive year I've identified McMichael as being overrated. His move to St. Louis has revealed that some people still believe he is one of the elite tight ends in the NFL. The metrics say otherwise.

McMichael's overall YPA (6.9) was adequate, ranking him 13th among tight ends last year. Unfortunately, he is a one-trick pony. Of the 92 passes thrown to him last season, 71 were short passes (1-10 yards). The reason McMichael wasn't thrown more vertical passes is his YPA on the 21 combined medium/deep/bomb passes last year was a meager 7.0 yards.

McMichael also had the lowest YPA and success percentage for a tight end when flexed out. He should do a fine job in St. Louis as a check-down target, but he is certainly no longer one of the best tight ends in the NFL.


Honorable mention

Dallas Clark: He is often described as a wide receiver in a tight end's body, but his YPA (6.3) indicates he is no wide receiver.

Kellen Winslow: He may have the skills to be a vertical receiver, but was used mostly as a check-down target last year, as evidenced by his 92 short pass attempts.

Ben Watson: Had the fifth-lowest success percentage among tight ends in 2006.


Underrated tight ends


Chris Cooley

Cooley is already considered by many to be one of the top 10 tight ends in the NFL, but the metrics indicate he deserves even more praise.

Cooley posted the fourth-best overall YPA among tight ends. He had the sixth-best medium pass YPA and the best short pass YPA. His YPA when flexed out (10.8) was easily the highest in the NFL. That he was able to put up these numbers, despite the struggles of the Redskins' quarterbacks last year, speaks volumes about his ability.

Desmond Clark

Last year, Rex Grossman claimed Clark was his go-to receiver, and the metrics show why. He ranked third in YPA, finishing ahead of players such as Cooley and Jason Witten. Clark's numbers were not skewed by a smaller number of attempts:


In addition to his impressive overall numbers, Clark also ranked fourth in both medium and deep pass YPA. If he puts up similar numbers in 2007, he should receive a lot of votes for the Pro Bowl.


Honorable mention

Owen Daniels: Ranked eighth in overall YPA (7.7 yards), despite playing in the vertically challenged Houston offense.

Heath Miller: Miller had the seventh-best YPA (7.9), and the best medium pass YPA (14.7) of any tight end last year.

Alex Smith: Smith's success percentage (75.5.) and medium pass YPA (13.5) both ranked second in the league.

 

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Hall, Barber didn't earn Pro Bowl trips

By KC Joyner
ESPN

This is the next installment in a series of articles about overrated and underrated players. The analysis is based primarily on the 2006 metrics, which can be found in "Scientific Football 2007." This week's topic is overrated and underrated cornerbacks.

Glossary

YPA (Yards Per Attempt): A quick barometer of a quarterback/wide receiver/tight end's efficiency.

Depth level: A measurement of how far downfield a receiver was on a pass attempt. It is measured from the point at which the receiver touched the ball. Short passes are 1-10, medium 11-19, deep 20-29, and bombs 30 or more yards downfield.

Success percentage: The percentage of plays on which a player does something successful with the ball. Successful plays include completions (for offensive players), incompletions (for defensive players) and penalty plays that go in the player's favor.

Missed passes: Inaccurate or dropped passes that cause an incompletion. Missed passes are used to measure how successful a QB/WR/TE could have been if not for the mistakes. They also help measure how lucky a cornerback was in coverage.

Near interception: Near interceptions are either dropped interceptions or interceptions that landed close enough to a defender that he could have had a chance to catch the ball had luck been on his side.

Stripped/dropped pass: A pass that a receiver starts to catch but then has the ball stripped away by the cornerback.

Forced incompletions: Any incomplete pass that a defensive back is physically responsible for causing. It is a combination of passes defensed, stripped/dropped passes and plays where a hit by a defensive back causes an incompletion.


Underrated Cornerbacks


Charles Woodson

Normally, I would not include Woodson in the underrated category because he is considered a very good cornerback. However, his 2006 metrics indicate he should have been a lock for the Pro Bowl.

Woodson had the sixth-lowest overall YPA in the league last year. He also had the second-best YPA among cornerbacks with more than 60 passes thrown their way. Only Champ Bailey beat him out in that category.

Woodson tied for the most stripped/dropped passes, and had the eighth-most forced incompletions. His six interceptions tied for sixth in the league and his 14 combined interceptions/near interceptions were the second most in the league. That Woodson was snubbed in favor of DeAngelo Hall and Ronde Barber for the Pro Bowl is a shame.

Nathan Vasher

The Bears recently signed Vasher to a contract extension, and the metrics indicate he certainly deserved it. His 6.0 YPA last year was the 12th best in the league. Vasher had good YPA numbers across the board, but his bomb pass YPA numbers were tremendous. He allowed zero completions in six bomb attempts and was even able to draw a 10-yard offensive pass interference call on one of the plays, thus making his YPA on bomb passes a superb -1.7 yards.

The main reason Vasher wasn't seen as a Pro Bowl-level cornerback is that his interception total dropped from eight in 2005 to three in 2006. Vasher did notch seven near interceptions last year, a total that ranked him second in the league in that category. If he can catch some of those near interceptions in 2007, a trip to Hawaii should be in his future.


Honorable mention

Johnathan Joseph: His 7.3 overall YPA was already very good, and if his poor performance against the Saints was removed, his YPA would drop to a mere 5.9 yards. He also helped the Bengals by leading the league in near interceptions (12).

Leigh Bodden: Only appeared in nine games for Cleveland last season, but had the third-best success percentage in the league, and led the NFL in forced incompletion percentage.

Al Harris: Was not quite as good as Woodson, but still ranked 18th in YPA and seventh in success percentage.

Charles Tillman: A 6.7 YPA, 52.1 success percentage and seven near interceptions indicate the Bears should do what they can to keep him around as well.


Overrated Cornerbacks


DeAngelo Hall

This is the second consecutive season Hall makes this list. He receives this honor because he once again made the Pro Bowl, despite posting simply abysmal metrics.

His 9.2 YPA ranked 76th among cornerbacks. Hall's 47.1 success percentage was solid (31st in the league), but his 17.9 missed pass percentage was one of the highest in the league. That means a large percentage of Hall's success was due to luck.

His supporters would point out that many of the big plays he allowed were due in part to not getting good help from the Falcons' safeties. That might be the case, but Hall's overall YPA was still only .8 yards better than Jason Webster's figure. Furthermore, Woodson had just as little help from the Packers' mediocre safeties and still put up great metrics.

Ronde Barber

Barber also didn't deserve a trip to the Pro Bowl. His 7.9 overall YPA was tied for 58th in the league, and his 37.6 success percentage was 76th. To put these numbers in perspective, Barber's YPA was equal to Terrence McGee's, and he ranked just below Carlos Rogers in success percentage.

Barber did have one great game last year, notching two interception returns for touchdowns in Tampa Bay's 23-21 win over Philadelphia in Week 7, but he had only one interception the rest of the year. He also only had three near interceptions. Barber is still a solid cornerback but to say he was one of the best in the NFC last year is simply not accurate.


Honorable mention

Will Allen: Allen is touted as the best cornerback on the Dolphins' roster, but his 38.8 success percentage was the worst of any qualifying cornerback on his team last year (30 pass attempts needed to qualify).

Marcus Trufant: His 9.0 YPA and 36.4 success percentage in 2006 didn't even measure up to his Seattle teammate Kelly Herndon, and Herndon was released this offseason.

Rashean Mathis: A starter in Jacksonville, Mathis has a number of really good metrics, but his 7.5 YPA is average and his 44.2 success percentage is borderline mediocre. He also allowed 22.3 YPA on the 10 combined corner/go/double move go passes thrown at him, so he definitely has a tendency to get beaten deep.

Terence Newman: He is considered much better than his Dallas teammate Anthony Henry, but Newman's 2006 overall YPA was only .4 yards higher than Henry's. He also ranked 57th in the missed pass percentage category, so luck was on his side.

 

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Big-name safeties vulnerable to deep ball

By KC Joyner
ESPN

July 4, 2007

In this week's installment of overrated and underrated players, I will be taking a look at the safety position. When I grade safeties, it is primarily based on their coverage skills, not their run-support skills, although I do take the run-support skills into account.

I also break down safeties into two positional categories: run safety and coverage safety. I use those terms instead of the strong and free safety terms because I think they better identify what each safety is responsible for.

The safety position also has a unique coverage metric that I call the deep-assist coverage metric. This metric is used to distinguish when a safety is helping another player cover a receiver over the top. In addition to that metric, I also use the direct coverage metric when the safety is directly responsible for covering a receiver one on one.

The deep assist metric is the most important coverage metric for a coverage safety because that is the primary responsibility of that position. The direct coverage metric comes up more often with run safeties because they spend more of their time near the line of scrimmage at the snap, but they also have their share of deep assist plays. I also will combine these metrics together to measure a player's overall coverage skills as well.

As usual, the overrated and underrated rankings are based on the 2006 metrics when compared to the player's perceived performance level.

Overrated safeties


Ed Reed

Reed's metrics were terrible last year. His 14.9 combined YPA was the fifth-worst in the league among coverage safeties. He gave up the third-highest number of total yards. He had the fourth-most bomb passes thrown his way and the third-worst YPA at that depth level.

I know there are those who will say that the game broadcast tapes don't show everything that Reed does and that these numbers are anomalies, but let me throw this out in my defense. Carson Palmer said that Reed often doesn't play his coverage and thinks he knows what's coming. Palmer also commented that Reed can get frustrated when the offense is getting some things going and will try to come up and make a play and lose his responsibilities because of it. Palmer was able to exploit Reed's impatience in Week 13, when he connected on a flea-flicker pass to T.J. Houshmandzadeh for a 40-yard touchdown.

The metrics show that Palmer isn't the only quarterback who knows Reed's coverage weaknesses. That is why I believe Reed is the most overrated safety in the league.


Sean Taylor

Taylor made the Pro Bowl as an injury replacement, but the metrics make it clear he didn't earn the spot. He ranked 20th in both deep assist YPA and deep assist success percentage. He did even worse when in direct coverage, as his 10.7 YPA in those situations was the seventh worst in the NFL last year. He also gave up the second-most total yards of any coverage safety. Taylor did do a lot more to support the run last year than he did in years past, but even taking that into account, he really wasn't a Pro Bowl-level coverage safety last year.

Others:

Dwight Smith: Smith gets a lot of credit for making big plays, but his 12.3 overall YPA was 30th-worst in the league.

Erik Coleman: Coleman tends to be mentioned in the same breath as Kerry Rhodes because he plays in the same secondary, but his 44.7 percent success percentage was the fifth worst among coverage safeties last year.

Ken Hamlin: Is being touted as something of a savior for Dallas, but his 10.4 deep assist YPA ranked only 19th among coverage safeties last year.


Underrated safeties


Brian Russell

Russell had the second-best overall YPA of any coverage safety last year. He also placed in the top eight in YPA in both the direct coverage and deep assist coverage metrics. Add those to his No. 14 ranking in overall success percentage and it shows that the Seahawks might have found a gem in Russell.


Kevin Kaesviharn

Kaesviharn mostly played run safety with Cincinnati in 2006, but he likely will play coverage safety in New Orleans. The metrics say his transition to that position should be very smooth. Kaesviharn's 5.8 overall YPA was the sixth-best among run safeties. He also posted a 6.3 YPA on deep assist plays, a total that was the 10th best in that category. If these metrics are any indication, Kaesviharn might give Josh Bullocks a run for his money for the starting coverage safety spot.

Others:

Mike Minter: Minter's 5.1 overall YPA ranked third among coverage safeties last year. He is being moved to run safety and his metrics say he should be a good fit there from a coverage standpoint.

Jarrad Page: Injuries forced Page into the lineup as a rookie last year, but he was able to hold his own. Page faced only 19 passes, but allowed a meager 5.4 YPA on them.

Nick Ferguson: Ferguson played in only 10 games last year due to injuries, but he posted tremendous metrics during that time. His 4.2 YPA was third best among run safeties and his 76.5 percent success percentage was second best.


Glossary


YPA (Yards Per Attempt): A quick barometer of a quarterback/wide receiver/tight end's efficiency.

Depth level: A measurement of how far downfield a receiver was on a pass attempt. It is measured from the point at which the receiver touched the ball. Short passes are 1-10, medium 11-19, deep 20-29, and bombs 30 or more yards downfield.

Success percentage: The percentage of plays on which a player does something successful with the ball. Successful plays include completions (for offensive players), incompletions (for defensive players) and penalty plays that go in the player's favor.

Missed passes: Inaccurate or dropped passes that cause an incompletion. Missed passes are used to measure how successful a QB/WR/TE could have been if not for the mistakes. They also help measure how lucky a cornerback was in coverage.

Near interception: Near interceptions are either dropped interceptions or interceptions that landed close enough to a defender that he could have had a chance to catch the ball had luck been on his side.

Stripped/dropped pass: A pass that a receiver starts to catch but then has the ball stripped away by the cornerback.

Forced incompletions: Any incomplete pass that a defensive back is physically responsible for causing. It is a combination of passes defensed, stripped/dropped passes and plays where a hit by a defensive back causes an incompletion.

 

[Abusive]

statue

 

[Black&Blue]

he is

 

[rake]

he is old and slow

fxd

 

[CalloftheWild]

Torry Holt is NOT overrated

 

[hasbeen99]

All Minter knows how to do anymore is launch himself at ball carriers, shoulder first. He hardly ever wraps up, and he gets burned a lot in coverage. How anyone could say he's underrated is beyond me.

 

[Collin]

It's strictly a numbers thing, and Minter is less exposed because we run 3 deep instead of 2 like most teams. The numbers are really interesting, at least to me, but they usually require context.