PantherPaul
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About non-playoff teams and their chances to make next years playoffs
Underlying metrics from 2015 suggested the Panthers were likely to decline in 2016, but nobody could have expected Carolina to fall all the way from 15-1 to 6-9 with one game to go. While the raw totals suggest defense has been the problem, with the Carolina unit ranking 27th in points allowed, advanced numbers make it clear the offense has been an issue. Carolina's defense, while not the world-beating unit from 2015, is still a respectable 10th in DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average), while the offense is 20th and special teams 27th.
Punting has been the biggest problem for Carolina, given the Panthers lost 10.5 points of field position on punts this season, the fourth-worst figure in the league. Those numbers are never entirely the punter's fault, but it speaks to how foolishly aggressive the Panthers were in trading a 2018 fourth-round pick to the Browns for Andy Lee just days before the Broncos cut a useful punter in Britton Colquitt, who would later sign with Cleveland. Carolina's punt coverage has been bad, but trading for Lee was never going to be a quick fix, and that price was exorbitant on the day of the trade.
General manager Dave Gettleman has mostly done excellent work during his time in Carolina, but he's been too aggressive with trading draft picks, especially given the nature of his cap-strapped roster. The Panthers likely won't regret dealing a sixth-round pick for Jared Allen last season, but in addition to the Lee move, they've traded up on draft day to acquire Bene Benwikere, Devin Funchess, Daryl Williams and Daryl Worley. It's still too early to grade those moves beyond Benwikere, who showed promise before being surprisingly released this season, but we know teams who trade up are often overconfident in their ability to outpick the market. With a 2018 fourth-rounder already missing, Gettleman can't really afford to keep dealing away picks, even if the Panthers will get a third-round compensatory pick for losing cornerback Josh Norman.
The cap woes I mentioned, though, are becoming a thing of the past. The Panthers had more than $18 million available after moving on from Norman. And while they weren't able to use that space to re-sign impending free agents like Kawann Short, they'll be able to roll over much of that money to 2017, where they already have $62 million in space. Carolina will have to use that space to rebuild at the line of scrimmage, with Short, Charles Johnson and Mario Addison all unrestricted free agents on the defensive side of the ball and the offensive line collapsing under injuries and poor play. A cornerback to replace Norman wouldn't hurt, either. Gettleman's been able to string together good to great teams for years on a shoestring budget; now, finally, we get to see what he can do with real money.
Underlying metrics from 2015 suggested the Panthers were likely to decline in 2016, but nobody could have expected Carolina to fall all the way from 15-1 to 6-9 with one game to go. While the raw totals suggest defense has been the problem, with the Carolina unit ranking 27th in points allowed, advanced numbers make it clear the offense has been an issue. Carolina's defense, while not the world-beating unit from 2015, is still a respectable 10th in DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average), while the offense is 20th and special teams 27th.
Punting has been the biggest problem for Carolina, given the Panthers lost 10.5 points of field position on punts this season, the fourth-worst figure in the league. Those numbers are never entirely the punter's fault, but it speaks to how foolishly aggressive the Panthers were in trading a 2018 fourth-round pick to the Browns for Andy Lee just days before the Broncos cut a useful punter in Britton Colquitt, who would later sign with Cleveland. Carolina's punt coverage has been bad, but trading for Lee was never going to be a quick fix, and that price was exorbitant on the day of the trade.
General manager Dave Gettleman has mostly done excellent work during his time in Carolina, but he's been too aggressive with trading draft picks, especially given the nature of his cap-strapped roster. The Panthers likely won't regret dealing a sixth-round pick for Jared Allen last season, but in addition to the Lee move, they've traded up on draft day to acquire Bene Benwikere, Devin Funchess, Daryl Williams and Daryl Worley. It's still too early to grade those moves beyond Benwikere, who showed promise before being surprisingly released this season, but we know teams who trade up are often overconfident in their ability to outpick the market. With a 2018 fourth-rounder already missing, Gettleman can't really afford to keep dealing away picks, even if the Panthers will get a third-round compensatory pick for losing cornerback Josh Norman.
The cap woes I mentioned, though, are becoming a thing of the past. The Panthers had more than $18 million available after moving on from Norman. And while they weren't able to use that space to re-sign impending free agents like Kawann Short, they'll be able to roll over much of that money to 2017, where they already have $62 million in space. Carolina will have to use that space to rebuild at the line of scrimmage, with Short, Charles Johnson and Mario Addison all unrestricted free agents on the defensive side of the ball and the offensive line collapsing under injuries and poor play. A cornerback to replace Norman wouldn't hurt, either. Gettleman's been able to string together good to great teams for years on a shoestring budget; now, finally, we get to see what he can do with real money.
