Collin
soap and water
- Joined
- Dec 10, 2004
- Posts
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- Age
- 48
No one is ever really satisfied after a bad ending, no matter how surprisingly pleasant the things that came before it. I certainly wasn't expecting the playoffs and I would have ridiculed anyone who suggested 12 wins with a division title. So I appreciate 2013 as a time when it was fun to be a Panthers fan again, not only because of the wins but because that defense was damn fun to watch. If I could have skipped the offensive possessions this might have been my favorite season of all. But now that things are over, it's worth taking inventory.
Things to Build On
* Star Lotulelei was everything I had hoped for, while Kawaan Short was better than I expected and A.J. Klein showed signs of being a potential contributor, which is important on a team that needs to find bargains. It will be crucial to hit on middle and late round picks in order to compensate for certain players being massively overpaid.
* Thomas Davis continues to be ageless and amazing. I don't even like to bring up the idea of ... something happening again, but he appears to have taken precautions against it. Although it still was ridiculous for Hurney to give him that contract, I'm obviously glad he's around.
* Sean McDermott came into his own this season and will presumably get that head coaching gig after 2014. The signs were always there, and this season he did a masterful job of playing to the roster's strengths while masking its weaknesses. As annoying as it is to watch the secondary playing off and giving up the fourth highest opposing completion percentage in the league, it works for this team. He did a great job mixing coverages and blitz packages to be unpredictable without taking unnecessary risks.
* Richard Rodgers is my new hero. This season's special teams were clearly the best in the franchise's history. Nortman set a team record for net punting average after being one of the worst in the league last season, while Gano had the highest percentage of touchbacks in the league and was reliable on field goals. Even the coverage units avoided the mistakes we've grown accustomed to. I really don't know enough about Rodgers to make this statement, but I can't help thinking that he's one of those rare special teams coaches like John Harbaugh who could eventually move up to head coach. Whatever the guy does, it's working.
Things to Work On
* Kuechly is unquestionably overhyped at the moment, but he is looking the part of leader on defense and plays the run extremely well. The fact that he has such good instincts against the run along with the ability to navigate traffic suggests that he really shouldn't struggle in coverage as much as he does. I strongly believe this is something he will choose to work on, and I expect him to look a lot better in 2014.
* Cam took a significant step forward this season on third downs. His performance was pretty much the same from first to second to third after struggling mightily on third downs last year. He was also better in the red zone after being comically awful there in 2012. I don't know that there's any basis to the media's gushing about his maturity, as he still looks like the same guy to me, there were just fewer hard times and more good times this season. I'd prefer to see him getting fiery and challenging his teammates when things aren't going well as opposed to sulking. There are also obviously still the issues regarding his mechanics, as his footwork is abysmal. He too often throws off of his back foot and even when he does stride, he arrests it with a stiff front leg. Competent quarterback coaching should be able to teach him proper weight transfer which would increase his accuracy and help with all the high throws. Unfortunately I don't know that much can be done about how slow he is to read defenses and recognize open receivers. Guys generally either have that mental quickness or they don't. A good offensive coordinator can scheme around it by emphasizing checkdowns after the primary read, as currently Cam seems very reluctant to hit the back or tight end underneath for a few yards.
* The young players in the secondary did an admirable job, which is important since there may not be many resources in terms of draft picks and salary space to bring in outsiders. As long as guys know their responsibilities and play within the scheme, you can overcome limited talent on the back end. The important thing this season was to prevent big plays, which they did for the most part aside from some bad games. When things did go wrong it was often a matter of safeties not being in the right place, so either getting more consistent there or perhaps bringing in some better talent would be beneficial.
* Carolina rushed for fewer yards in 2013 than 2012 despite having more overall carries. DeAngelo did his best to shoulder the load at age 30, posting his most attempts since 2009, but there's not a lot of tread left on those tires. Jonathan Stewart is going to have to sort out his health issues and contribute in a significant way for the team to have a productive ground game next season. Meanwhile I get the concept of not wanting to wear down Cam with unnecessary hits, but even if you reduce the number of designed runs he needs to be encouraged to use his legs when the opportunity presents itself on pass plays. By all means, slide or go out of bounds when defenders come close, but he has to be a major element of the running game for this offense to be effective.
Things to Worry About
* While it feels like we got off easy from Hurney's salary cap hell, the reality is that most of it was just pushed off into future seasons. Stewart's contract is going to be an albatross through the next two years, and DeAngelo can't be cut to create any space either. Charles Johnson's cap hit jumps from $8.74 million to $16.42 million. Ryan Kalil's cap hit jumps from $6.4 million to $10.4 million. Greg Olsen's cap hit jumps from $3.3 million to $7.8 million. Gettleman will presumably attempt restructurings that will lessen the damage, but it will almost certainly come from pushing money off into future seasons and thus dragging things out. The only obvious cut will be Charles Godfrey, who is scheduled to have a cap hit of $7.1 million but will only cost $5 million if released.
* In conjunction with the rising cost of guys already on the roster comes the burden of paying for or replacing the ones whose contracts are up. That includes every single member of the receiving corps besides Olsen and Steve Smith. Panthers fans may not adequately appreciate LaFell until they see Cheap Free Agent WR trying to replace him. While I think the Panthers will work something out with Ginn and definitely could with LaFell as well, doing so will undoubtedly mean substantial raises from what they were making before. Then you have Greg Hardy, who dominates inferior tackles while struggling against top competition. But if you let him walk, who do you replace him with? Frank Alexander was a wasted pick, just as I said he would be, so there are no obvious in-house alternatives. Captain Munnerlyn is also up after a surprisingly solid season. None of those guys except Ginn have made a lot of money during their careers and therefore the odds of them taking significant "hometown discounts" are pretty remote.
* My guess is that Jordan Gross retires, as I don't know why else he would have agreed to void his remaining years. Byron Bell is a restricted free agent as well. Kalil might end up being the only returning starter on the offensive line, and maybe you look on that as a positive given that they struggled badly at times, but replacing four starters would be a ludicrously difficult task. Some sort of plan needs to be used when doing so, as the Panthers sometimes pretend they're a power running team even though none of the offensive linemen are at all suited to that style of blocking.
* Mike Shula is fucking awful. I've bitched about his route design all season, and I hate that he spent so long trying to make Cam into a pocket passer. Seattle doesn't make Russell Wilson act like a pocket passer. You play to a guy's strengths. Speaking of which, don't use Mike Tolbert on stretch runs to the outside and let Steve Smith do what he does best in attacking downfield. Streaks, corners, and deep ins have always been Steve's bread and butter. There's a reason that Shula had to wait thirteen years for another chance to be a coordinator. For all some people ridiculously talked about Chudzinski produced stats while Shula produced wins, the 2013 Carolina Panthers not only had massively less passing yards and less rushing yards, but also fewer overall first downs. They had more time of possession because they took more time during plays and the defense kept getting the ball back, not because the offense was converting and keeping possession more often. 2011 - 345 first downs, 2012 - 328 first downs, 2013 - 319 first downs. And this is with the offense going from 7th & 12th in yards the previous two seasons to 26th during this one. The guy sucks. Unfortunately I don't think there's any way that Rivera demotes or replaces him, so we have to hope that a guy who has never been competent suddenly improves and realizes that maybe big plays are kind of important to an offense, along with the concept of staggering routes so that you're not either running everyone deep or everyone short.
Things to Build On
* Star Lotulelei was everything I had hoped for, while Kawaan Short was better than I expected and A.J. Klein showed signs of being a potential contributor, which is important on a team that needs to find bargains. It will be crucial to hit on middle and late round picks in order to compensate for certain players being massively overpaid.
* Thomas Davis continues to be ageless and amazing. I don't even like to bring up the idea of ... something happening again, but he appears to have taken precautions against it. Although it still was ridiculous for Hurney to give him that contract, I'm obviously glad he's around.
* Sean McDermott came into his own this season and will presumably get that head coaching gig after 2014. The signs were always there, and this season he did a masterful job of playing to the roster's strengths while masking its weaknesses. As annoying as it is to watch the secondary playing off and giving up the fourth highest opposing completion percentage in the league, it works for this team. He did a great job mixing coverages and blitz packages to be unpredictable without taking unnecessary risks.
* Richard Rodgers is my new hero. This season's special teams were clearly the best in the franchise's history. Nortman set a team record for net punting average after being one of the worst in the league last season, while Gano had the highest percentage of touchbacks in the league and was reliable on field goals. Even the coverage units avoided the mistakes we've grown accustomed to. I really don't know enough about Rodgers to make this statement, but I can't help thinking that he's one of those rare special teams coaches like John Harbaugh who could eventually move up to head coach. Whatever the guy does, it's working.
Things to Work On
* Kuechly is unquestionably overhyped at the moment, but he is looking the part of leader on defense and plays the run extremely well. The fact that he has such good instincts against the run along with the ability to navigate traffic suggests that he really shouldn't struggle in coverage as much as he does. I strongly believe this is something he will choose to work on, and I expect him to look a lot better in 2014.
* Cam took a significant step forward this season on third downs. His performance was pretty much the same from first to second to third after struggling mightily on third downs last year. He was also better in the red zone after being comically awful there in 2012. I don't know that there's any basis to the media's gushing about his maturity, as he still looks like the same guy to me, there were just fewer hard times and more good times this season. I'd prefer to see him getting fiery and challenging his teammates when things aren't going well as opposed to sulking. There are also obviously still the issues regarding his mechanics, as his footwork is abysmal. He too often throws off of his back foot and even when he does stride, he arrests it with a stiff front leg. Competent quarterback coaching should be able to teach him proper weight transfer which would increase his accuracy and help with all the high throws. Unfortunately I don't know that much can be done about how slow he is to read defenses and recognize open receivers. Guys generally either have that mental quickness or they don't. A good offensive coordinator can scheme around it by emphasizing checkdowns after the primary read, as currently Cam seems very reluctant to hit the back or tight end underneath for a few yards.
* The young players in the secondary did an admirable job, which is important since there may not be many resources in terms of draft picks and salary space to bring in outsiders. As long as guys know their responsibilities and play within the scheme, you can overcome limited talent on the back end. The important thing this season was to prevent big plays, which they did for the most part aside from some bad games. When things did go wrong it was often a matter of safeties not being in the right place, so either getting more consistent there or perhaps bringing in some better talent would be beneficial.
* Carolina rushed for fewer yards in 2013 than 2012 despite having more overall carries. DeAngelo did his best to shoulder the load at age 30, posting his most attempts since 2009, but there's not a lot of tread left on those tires. Jonathan Stewart is going to have to sort out his health issues and contribute in a significant way for the team to have a productive ground game next season. Meanwhile I get the concept of not wanting to wear down Cam with unnecessary hits, but even if you reduce the number of designed runs he needs to be encouraged to use his legs when the opportunity presents itself on pass plays. By all means, slide or go out of bounds when defenders come close, but he has to be a major element of the running game for this offense to be effective.
Things to Worry About
* While it feels like we got off easy from Hurney's salary cap hell, the reality is that most of it was just pushed off into future seasons. Stewart's contract is going to be an albatross through the next two years, and DeAngelo can't be cut to create any space either. Charles Johnson's cap hit jumps from $8.74 million to $16.42 million. Ryan Kalil's cap hit jumps from $6.4 million to $10.4 million. Greg Olsen's cap hit jumps from $3.3 million to $7.8 million. Gettleman will presumably attempt restructurings that will lessen the damage, but it will almost certainly come from pushing money off into future seasons and thus dragging things out. The only obvious cut will be Charles Godfrey, who is scheduled to have a cap hit of $7.1 million but will only cost $5 million if released.
* In conjunction with the rising cost of guys already on the roster comes the burden of paying for or replacing the ones whose contracts are up. That includes every single member of the receiving corps besides Olsen and Steve Smith. Panthers fans may not adequately appreciate LaFell until they see Cheap Free Agent WR trying to replace him. While I think the Panthers will work something out with Ginn and definitely could with LaFell as well, doing so will undoubtedly mean substantial raises from what they were making before. Then you have Greg Hardy, who dominates inferior tackles while struggling against top competition. But if you let him walk, who do you replace him with? Frank Alexander was a wasted pick, just as I said he would be, so there are no obvious in-house alternatives. Captain Munnerlyn is also up after a surprisingly solid season. None of those guys except Ginn have made a lot of money during their careers and therefore the odds of them taking significant "hometown discounts" are pretty remote.
* My guess is that Jordan Gross retires, as I don't know why else he would have agreed to void his remaining years. Byron Bell is a restricted free agent as well. Kalil might end up being the only returning starter on the offensive line, and maybe you look on that as a positive given that they struggled badly at times, but replacing four starters would be a ludicrously difficult task. Some sort of plan needs to be used when doing so, as the Panthers sometimes pretend they're a power running team even though none of the offensive linemen are at all suited to that style of blocking.
* Mike Shula is fucking awful. I've bitched about his route design all season, and I hate that he spent so long trying to make Cam into a pocket passer. Seattle doesn't make Russell Wilson act like a pocket passer. You play to a guy's strengths. Speaking of which, don't use Mike Tolbert on stretch runs to the outside and let Steve Smith do what he does best in attacking downfield. Streaks, corners, and deep ins have always been Steve's bread and butter. There's a reason that Shula had to wait thirteen years for another chance to be a coordinator. For all some people ridiculously talked about Chudzinski produced stats while Shula produced wins, the 2013 Carolina Panthers not only had massively less passing yards and less rushing yards, but also fewer overall first downs. They had more time of possession because they took more time during plays and the defense kept getting the ball back, not because the offense was converting and keeping possession more often. 2011 - 345 first downs, 2012 - 328 first downs, 2013 - 319 first downs. And this is with the offense going from 7th & 12th in yards the previous two seasons to 26th during this one. The guy sucks. Unfortunately I don't think there's any way that Rivera demotes or replaces him, so we have to hope that a guy who has never been competent suddenly improves and realizes that maybe big plays are kind of important to an offense, along with the concept of staggering routes so that you're not either running everyone deep or everyone short.
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