magnus
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slack motherfuckers, it's :40 to kickoff.
more meandering thoughts while waiting for the game:
nothing like a primetime home game. Wish I could make it to this one.
I come in more worried about their D, overall, but there's no one player to worry about in matchups. That's the difficult part - not a lot to target. They rate 8th overall (give up average of 17 first downs a game), 7th best in penalties, 9th in 3rd down, 16th passing (20th in sacks, 14th INTs), 4th rushing (3.2 yards per rush). This, by the numbers, is a team to exploit with the pass - using footballoutsiders' somewhat convoluted stat system, the Cowboys are 17th best in the NFL at covering the #1 receiver, a decent 8th against the 2nd WR, and 25th against any other receiver - which screams out for us to use 3 WR, and often attempt to get 89 or 19 on a slot defender. Nickelback Aaron Glenn, still short but now obviously much older, is struggling, and we have a height advantage with him v/s anyone. As well, spreading their defense catches them with 3-4 personnel on the field, forcing mass substitutions, a rush LB weakside, and a 300 lb end in front of him. That's an innate weakness of the 3-4 - being spread wide, and coming out of formation, there's not a lot of flexibility into a nickel look (4-3s aren't terribly flexible, but most teams run a 4-2 front nickel, so you're pulling a LB at its simplest). Coming out with Foster in motion would be useful, and subbing in Carter will be useful and potent.
As well, Marcus Ware and Akin Ayodele, athletic or not, are not good enough at defending secondary pass targets. Though they might be effective against the WR screen, their agressiveness defending that could leave some backside targets open on crossing routes or sideline routes, and even hooks/curls; that is, of course, making sure to read the corner that he doesn't switch off and take the deeper responsibility. Strongside rusher Greg Ellis isn't much more useful against the pass, and probably won't drop much. The Cowboys' 3-4, while having the flexibility, isn't any exotic scheme and generally prefers bringing their rush LBs more often than not, and dropping their ILB more often than not.
Weakside corner Anthony Henry leads the team in tackles, and not because he's big against the run. Roy Williams, the SS, is certainly strong against the run, and a big reason they're good against the run - and very susceptible against the deep pass. He's not shown quite as much of a knack for covering passes overall - his asset of hitting hard and some natural instincts have gotten him this far. This may be a situation where playaction could actually help, but we'll need to sell it well. It may even be effective to push a TE up the field a few times in a series to decoy, though we'll probably need one through most of the game for blocking. Pumping to Keyshawn and sneaking Carter past Williams would prove effective as well.
Terrence Newman, listed as the strongside corner, is as fast a guy as you'll see out there, and may switch sides to cover Smith. If not, he'll likely be all over Keyshawn, but Keyshawn should be able to separate with good routes and outmuscle for close balls. Against Smith, Newman may not be able to play disciplined enough to not guess, and likely won't be a better matchup there. Nonetheless, Smith was held to one catch before being ejected. In that game, Ricky Proehl had 100 yards and a score, and Drew Carter had 55 and a score, in his relief.
FS Pat Watkins, a rookie, has very good athleticism and smarts, but hasn't really put it together to make plays in the passing game at this point. As well, he's lanky and would have trouble staying with receivers in man, though he won't be matched in man coverage. At most, he'll be over top in zone or matched to double Smith.
As rushers, Ware and Ellis will be formidable opponents, though Bridges will probably get a chip on Ellis. Ware's athleticism may challenge Gross, but 69 hasn't struggled as much with speed rushers who don't have an inside move. While Gross may (and probably will) make at least one mistake against Ware, in general there shouldn't be a ton of pressure from this side. Gross' weakness is with guys who can get across his chest and force him to defend space inside out, but nonetheless, Ware beat Wharton for 3 sacks and 3 FF in the '05 game and must be considered the prime concern.
Inside rushers Marcus Spears, Jason Ferguson, and Chris Canty have never produced much of an inside rush, and as long as our inner three makes good calls and doesn't give up the bullrush, there shouldn't be a big problem here.
Our rushing game will likely struggle a bit, despite Foster being 2nd in the league in rushing first downs with 31.
Our line blocking with the run will be crucial not to make mistakes and get decent push, but our blocking scheme may allow for good angles v/s the 4-3. Canty and Spears are specifically decent run defenders, with size that Gross and Bridges won't have seen much of, to this point. Ferguson is a good nose tackle, but can be moved, so a quick hitter off of a combo block with Hangartner/Wahle with Wahle going after Ayodele after, may work if Ware is caught getting upfield too fast (though this may be best out of 2 TE to force Ware to square on someone).
Two TEs may also be a decent set formation if we're going with a base style offense, using occasional overloads and motion to create mismatches. As well, it would allow a more tailorable blocking scheme at the line.
Kicking Ellis out, trapping Spears, and getting someone in front of Bradie James may not be easy, but might be the best way to gain tough yards. James and Ayodele (formerly a rush end whose abilities against the run as a LB have been somewhat surprising) are good pursue LBs, and while Ware is prone to occasional mistakes, both Ellis and Ware are good contain men.
Getting them out of formation by motion or formation may be the best way to run on them as well, as it may kick Ware and Ellis down to end and gives a more even matchup. We've also shown occasions of putting Hoover or Foster outside the WR, which would be another potential mismatch situation. Even if it simply draws a LB outside, that could be a good way of forcing adjustments in our favor.
Either way, teams have won v/s Dallas without getting tons of yards or first downs rushing, but need to make passing plays to make it worthwhile.
more meandering thoughts while waiting for the game:
nothing like a primetime home game. Wish I could make it to this one.
I come in more worried about their D, overall, but there's no one player to worry about in matchups. That's the difficult part - not a lot to target. They rate 8th overall (give up average of 17 first downs a game), 7th best in penalties, 9th in 3rd down, 16th passing (20th in sacks, 14th INTs), 4th rushing (3.2 yards per rush). This, by the numbers, is a team to exploit with the pass - using footballoutsiders' somewhat convoluted stat system, the Cowboys are 17th best in the NFL at covering the #1 receiver, a decent 8th against the 2nd WR, and 25th against any other receiver - which screams out for us to use 3 WR, and often attempt to get 89 or 19 on a slot defender. Nickelback Aaron Glenn, still short but now obviously much older, is struggling, and we have a height advantage with him v/s anyone. As well, spreading their defense catches them with 3-4 personnel on the field, forcing mass substitutions, a rush LB weakside, and a 300 lb end in front of him. That's an innate weakness of the 3-4 - being spread wide, and coming out of formation, there's not a lot of flexibility into a nickel look (4-3s aren't terribly flexible, but most teams run a 4-2 front nickel, so you're pulling a LB at its simplest). Coming out with Foster in motion would be useful, and subbing in Carter will be useful and potent.
As well, Marcus Ware and Akin Ayodele, athletic or not, are not good enough at defending secondary pass targets. Though they might be effective against the WR screen, their agressiveness defending that could leave some backside targets open on crossing routes or sideline routes, and even hooks/curls; that is, of course, making sure to read the corner that he doesn't switch off and take the deeper responsibility. Strongside rusher Greg Ellis isn't much more useful against the pass, and probably won't drop much. The Cowboys' 3-4, while having the flexibility, isn't any exotic scheme and generally prefers bringing their rush LBs more often than not, and dropping their ILB more often than not.
Weakside corner Anthony Henry leads the team in tackles, and not because he's big against the run. Roy Williams, the SS, is certainly strong against the run, and a big reason they're good against the run - and very susceptible against the deep pass. He's not shown quite as much of a knack for covering passes overall - his asset of hitting hard and some natural instincts have gotten him this far. This may be a situation where playaction could actually help, but we'll need to sell it well. It may even be effective to push a TE up the field a few times in a series to decoy, though we'll probably need one through most of the game for blocking. Pumping to Keyshawn and sneaking Carter past Williams would prove effective as well.
Terrence Newman, listed as the strongside corner, is as fast a guy as you'll see out there, and may switch sides to cover Smith. If not, he'll likely be all over Keyshawn, but Keyshawn should be able to separate with good routes and outmuscle for close balls. Against Smith, Newman may not be able to play disciplined enough to not guess, and likely won't be a better matchup there. Nonetheless, Smith was held to one catch before being ejected. In that game, Ricky Proehl had 100 yards and a score, and Drew Carter had 55 and a score, in his relief.
FS Pat Watkins, a rookie, has very good athleticism and smarts, but hasn't really put it together to make plays in the passing game at this point. As well, he's lanky and would have trouble staying with receivers in man, though he won't be matched in man coverage. At most, he'll be over top in zone or matched to double Smith.
As rushers, Ware and Ellis will be formidable opponents, though Bridges will probably get a chip on Ellis. Ware's athleticism may challenge Gross, but 69 hasn't struggled as much with speed rushers who don't have an inside move. While Gross may (and probably will) make at least one mistake against Ware, in general there shouldn't be a ton of pressure from this side. Gross' weakness is with guys who can get across his chest and force him to defend space inside out, but nonetheless, Ware beat Wharton for 3 sacks and 3 FF in the '05 game and must be considered the prime concern.
Inside rushers Marcus Spears, Jason Ferguson, and Chris Canty have never produced much of an inside rush, and as long as our inner three makes good calls and doesn't give up the bullrush, there shouldn't be a big problem here.
Our rushing game will likely struggle a bit, despite Foster being 2nd in the league in rushing first downs with 31.
Our line blocking with the run will be crucial not to make mistakes and get decent push, but our blocking scheme may allow for good angles v/s the 4-3. Canty and Spears are specifically decent run defenders, with size that Gross and Bridges won't have seen much of, to this point. Ferguson is a good nose tackle, but can be moved, so a quick hitter off of a combo block with Hangartner/Wahle with Wahle going after Ayodele after, may work if Ware is caught getting upfield too fast (though this may be best out of 2 TE to force Ware to square on someone).
Two TEs may also be a decent set formation if we're going with a base style offense, using occasional overloads and motion to create mismatches. As well, it would allow a more tailorable blocking scheme at the line.
Kicking Ellis out, trapping Spears, and getting someone in front of Bradie James may not be easy, but might be the best way to gain tough yards. James and Ayodele (formerly a rush end whose abilities against the run as a LB have been somewhat surprising) are good pursue LBs, and while Ware is prone to occasional mistakes, both Ellis and Ware are good contain men.
Getting them out of formation by motion or formation may be the best way to run on them as well, as it may kick Ware and Ellis down to end and gives a more even matchup. We've also shown occasions of putting Hoover or Foster outside the WR, which would be another potential mismatch situation. Even if it simply draws a LB outside, that could be a good way of forcing adjustments in our favor.
Either way, teams have won v/s Dallas without getting tons of yards or first downs rushing, but need to make passing plays to make it worthwhile.
