Cam vs O-Line Play vs WRs

[Toll Booth Willie]

Great read at CSR:

Sack, sack, sack: Who is to blame? - Cat Scratch Reader

The Offensive Line's struggles have been well documented this season, and while the Panthers pass protection drop off hasn't been nearly as pronounced as that of the run blocking, it certainly has not been superb.

This past Friday, the excellent folks at Football Outsiders published an article detailing coverage sacks, and quarterback/play call sacks by teams this season.

Per the article:

No coverage sack this year has taken place in less than 3.1 seconds, and the vast majority (214 of the 219 coverage sacks) have taken 3.3 seconds or longer. The median time of a coverage sack is 4.1 seconds, so we're talking about sacks where the quarterback had time to check his primary receiver, look at his secondary, eye the back looking for an outlet pass, and then see the rush bearing down on him.

So basically, a coverage sack is when the QB holds the ball for longer than three and a half seconds or so, and is given an appropriate amount of time to make his way through his progression, yet is sacked.

When measuring up coverage sacks for the entire league, the Carolina Panthers fell to 31st in total coverage sacks, giving up 13 coverage sacks, the second most in the NFL. Cam Newton has taken more coverage sacks than almost every single QB in the league (Alex Smith and Colin Kaepernick have combined for 15 coverage sacks; Matt Stafford also has 13 coverage sacks). Those 13 coverage sacks account for 43% of the Panthers 30 sacks; that equates to 3.3% of all passing attempts.

In contrast, the Panthers have only surrendered 1 QB/Play Call sack, which puts them at 8th place in the NFL (0.3% of all passing attempts), in fact, if not for the lack of passing attempts, the Panthers may have ranked first overall (no team has had 0 play call sacks). You can't really blame OC Rob Chudzinski; he's not calling plays that leave Newton out to dry; the protection designs have been sound (in comparison the NY Jets have 10 QB/Play Call sacks, leaving them in last place).

What it boils down to is, Cam Newton is holding onto the ball for too long. The Offensive Line has been subpar this season, but it certainly does not help when the QB is holding onto the ball for longer than necessary.

Now this isn't a total indictment of Cam or his abilities; referring back to the article:

Long sacks usually have a pretty reliable template: a speedy quarterback will decide after a suitable time in the pocket to roll out toward the sideline with an eye on tucking and running, buy some more time, then get picked off by a linebacker or defensive back coming up from coverage before he can get past the line of scrimmage. Or he'll keep running backwards before finally getting run down for a big loss.

Many of Cam's coverage sacks fall under that category, however, there are external factors at play.

The Panthers have not had great play in the WR Corps. Whether it be a lack of separation, or inexperienced play at WR, the Panthers do not have an absolute game breaker at WR. Don't get me wrong, Steve Smith is a legitimate #1 WR, however, he's reaching the twilight of his career, and has been afforded a lot of attention from opposing teams.

These sacks have killed Panthers' Drives, and stalled offensive momentum. One of the Panthers biggest problems on Offense has been third down and long (3rd & 7+). By taking a sack, it is almost assured that the Panthers will find themselves in some sort of unfavorable down and distance scenario.

Over the past few weeks, Newton has done much better at avoiding coverage sacks, and finding targets downfield, highlighted by his 8.3 yards per attempt, although, this is one of the key areas of Cam's game to watch moving forward.

 

[presidence99]

There was an article just like this a month or two ago, may have even been from the same place.

 

[presidence99]

Panthers Pass Protection Better Than You Probably Think - Cat Scratch Reader

If someone from CSR is reading this, stop defending our shitty OL

 

[Toll Booth Willie]

The valid point they are making is that most of the sacks aren't really on the O-Line, but the lack of playmaking ability at WR, combined with Cam's slow decision making.

We can't fix QB in the offseason, but it would be encouraging to add add a playmaker or two on offense.

 

[stratocatter]

Any jail break that Cam avoided a sack on lets the OL off the hook, did they count those?

He holds the ball too long not just because we don't have someone open, but also because he's not processing stuff fast enough.

 

[Collin]

Any jail break that Cam avoided a sack on lets the OL off the hook, did they count those?

He holds the ball too long not just because we don't have someone open, but also because he's not processing stuff fast enough.

Yeah, I agree. Cam can't read defenses for shit and does hold the ball too long, but the Panthers don't have one league average or better pass protector now that Kalil is out.

 

[finleye]

it was wishful thinking on everyone's part that the line would preform just as well as last year. Hangartner was not an asset at guard this year, and Silatolu had a learning curve.

 

[finleye]

and so PFF doesn't think we have any weapons outside, either. That's enough for me. On top of PFF (who I definitely find credible), some anonymous insider basically said the same thing a couple months ago:

“Cam (Newton)’s mechanics are bad. He’s throwing moving away from his target all the time. They have been running that (b.s.) offense. How do you have all the money tied up in (Jonathan Stewart) and (DeAngelo Williams) and not feed them? They have no legitimate receivers, really, outside of Steve Smith. (Brandon) LaFell is not a legitimate receiver. They have no receivers, man."

ProFootballWeekly.com - Insider: Richardson's health leads to Panthers' urgency

 

[Collin]

Instead of reading anonymous sources maybe you could have read this when I posted it a month ago:

Halfway through the season we have this:

Steve Smith - 38 rec, 630 yards, 70 targets, 54% comp, 9 ypt
Greg Olsen - 34 rec, 395 yards, 53 targets, 64% comp, 7.5 ypt
Brandon LaFell - 20 rec, 367 yards, 36 targets, 55% comp, 10.2 ypt
Mike Tolbert - 12 rec, 108 yards, 17 targets, 71% comp, 6.4 ypt
Jonathan Stewart - 12 rec, 95 yards, 17 targets, 71% comp, 5.6 ypt
Louis Murphy - 10 rec, 135 yards, 26 targets, 38% comp, 5.2 ypt

No one else on the team has more than seven targets. This does lend credence to those who think that Louis Murphy is awful, but there also clearly isn't room for a new receiver to make much of an impact. Heck, if anything LaFell needs to be targeted even more. Adding yet another receiver into the mix means taking targets from someone else, and more than just the ones that go to Murphy. So where's the need for another receiver? I don't see it.

 

[Toll Booth Willie]

They aren't going to get targeted (or shouldn't, anyway) if they aren't open. That's one of the points of the discussion. Cam is too slow to see the field, and guys aren't getting open.