Tight Ends

I was a little disappointed that the Panthers didn't bring back Shockey since he showed good effort last season, and definitely disappointed that they didn't add anyone to replace him. I don't have any particular plays or metrics to evaluate Ben Hartsock, but I remember not being impressed by him as a blocker, especially for a tight end whose only value lies in that area. Maybe playing on special teams has improved Gary Barnidge as a blocker, but I'm pretty skeptical about his ability to fill Shockey's shoes. I get that the team already used and will continue to use spread elements frequently, but I personally like having versatility and being able to show defenses different looks.

Last season both backs ran well in formations with 0 tight ends, although it's interesting that Stewart received double the carries with 50 to DW's 25. Stewart averaged 6.7 per carry and only failed to gain yards four times, whereas DW averaged 4.8 and was also stuffed on four attempts. Williams had a pretty huge disparity between one and two tight end formations, averaging a staggering 7.6 per carry with one tight end as opposed to less than half that at 3.5 with two tight ends. Meanwhile Stewart wasn't affected statistically, averaging 5.3 with one tight end and 5.0 with two.

I don't know if the Panthers were ineffective with TE-heavy formations because their TEs suck at blocking or because they're just more effective running the ball with the defense spread out, but what I took away from the numbers is that the team was already effective running the ball without tight ends being very involved in the blocking. The lack of a pile pusher at the position does hurt in short yardage and goalline, which helps explain why they relied so much on Cam in those scenarios. It's also worth noting that Stewart ran substantially better without a fullback last season, so how Tolbert works into the equation will be interesting. DW was similarly ineffective out of the I, but did best in the Pro Set and has traditionally worked well behind a lead blocker. Frankly I'm still not sure what Tolbert is supposed to add, and I think I'd be happier about the offense if they had spent that money on a true blocking tight end strictly for those hard-yardage situations.

 

That's interesting stuff. I'm wondering if the Murphy trade means we're moving towards a base 3WR offense.

 

Fantastic analysis. If we had better tackle depth I'd suggest forgoing some unpredictability and use more jumbo formations for short yardage/GL.

 

I also think they're counting on Tolbert to replace Shockey's production. I don't see him being a true fullback.

 

Already were. Actually, the most common number of WRs on a play last season was actually 4, at least according to STATS Inc. Looks like over 400 plays last season had 4+ WRs, around 240 were 3 WRs, around 200 were 2 WRs, and just over 100 were 0-1 WRs. This is not your father's NFL.

 

I'll admit that surprises me.

 

Actually, one of the things that shocked me is how predictable most NFL offenses are based on formations. When playing video games or stuff like GLB you think about not giving away run or pass, but in the NFL it's totally different. For instance, when the Tennessee Titans lined up with 0 to 2 wideouts, they ran the ball over 73% of the time. Meanwhile when they had 3 or more wideouts in the game, they ran only 15% of the time. Carolina wasn't quite so obvious, but it was still pretty heavily skewed along those lines.

 

I like the offenses that throw out of multiple TE sets, but that probably wouldn't be a great fit here.

 

I do think Tolbert takes on a much larger role than last year's fullbacks had. Hopefully he is productive and fills the void left by Shockey's departure. I would assume that is the plan anyway.

I suspect they will continue to depend on Cam's versatility at the goal line rather than running a power game. Hopefully that does not get him hurt.

 

I agree on the whole Tolbert taking on some of Shockey's role. However I wouldn't be surprised if Shockey got brought back as a 1 year injury replacement type deal if/when someone goes down.