Playoff Scenarios

Updated



Likely Divisional Winners
New York - clinched
Minnesota - 1 game lead
Arizona - clinched
Tampa Bay - 1 game lead

The Wild Card Race


Remaining Schedules

Washington Redskins – 7-6 Philly isn't looking like an easy game any more. Best possible schedule is now 10-6.
12/14 @ Cincy
12/21 Philly
12/28 @ San Francisco

Dallas Cowboys – 8-5 -Best possilble record is 11-5. But if Carolina is in a tie iwht them at 11-5, then the tiebreaker is division record. Dallas would be 4-2 in their division if they win out. For Carolina to be 11-5 means winning only one of the remaining three. If Carolina loses to New Orleans, then Dallas gets that tiebreaker. If Carolina wins, then their division record will be 4-2 also, moving things to the next tiebreaker, common games.
12/14 N.Y. Giants
12/20 Baltimore
12/28 @ Philly

Philadelphia Eagles – 7-5-1 with 2 division games left. They have a bit of control over their destinty, but they still need sevearl other things to occur to make the playoffs. Best Possible schedule is 10-5-1.
12/15 Cleveland
12/21 @ Washington
12/28 Dallas

Tampa Bay – 9-4 -the Tampa - Atlanta game is the biggest game remaining in the NFC South now. they should manhandle San Diego and Oakland, so they'll be no worse than 11-5. They still could win the division.
12/14 @ Atlanta
12/21 San Diego
12/28 Oakland

Atlanta Falcons – 8-5 -The Minnesota game looks a bit easier after the suspensions, even if big ole Grady gets suspended too. If they win out, then that will have them and Tampa Bay both sitting at 11-5...
12/14 Tampa Bay
12/21 @ Minnesota
12/28 St. Louis

New Orleans Saints – 7-6 -Winning out it their only chance, and even then it likely will not be enough.
12/11 @ Chicago
12/21 @ Detroit
12/28 Carolina

Carolina Panthers – Win out, and you're looking at the #1 seed (tiebreaker over N.Y. Ginats being head to head). Win two and you're looking at (effectively) three scenarios - 1. Tampa has lost to Atlanta, and Carolina takes the division, but having lost to N.Y. Giants (and winning the other two) Carolina is the #2 seed. 2. Tampa has lost to Atlanta and Carolina takes the division and has beaten N.Y. Giants and one other team, giving Carolina the #1 seed. 3. Tampa has beaten Atlanta, and Carolina has won two of their remaining three. There are 4 permutations of this scenario, but all result in Tampa winning the tie breaker and thus the division, leaving Carolina with the #5 seed (top wild card).

Win one remaining game, and you're looking at a lot of possible scenarios, with, I'm guessing/estimating 2/3rds of them putting Carolina as a wild card team.

Lose out and Carolina's most likely out of the playoffs, unless Dallas, Atlanta, and Tampa Bay all tank at the same time.
12/14 Denver
12/21 @ N.Y. Giants
12/28 @ New Orleans


It's looking more and more likely we will see 3 NFC south teams at 11-5, with one taking the division and the other two taking both wild card slots.

 

Per NFL.com, the easiest path to clinching a playoff berth this weekend would be one of the following two:

1. Win vs. Denver
AND
2. Dallas loss (vs. NYG)

or

1. Win vs. Denver
AND
2. Atlanta loss (vs. TB)

Funny--either way, the TB-ATL game works out well for us, so long as we win.

 

If we win against Denver we are almost certainly going to get at least a wild card. We could finish no worse than 11-5 if we beat Denver. The only teams in the NFC that can finish 11-5 or better are:

Tampa
Atlanta
Dallas
Minnesota
Arizona
New York

New York and Arizona are division champs so they would not bump us from a wild card. Minnesota will win the division if they go 11-5 and not bump us for a wild card. If they lose the division they will finish 10-6 or worse and not bump us either. Either us, Tampa or Atlanta will win the division and not bump us as a wild card.

Say Tampa wins the division that leaves us seeking a wild card vs Atlanta and Dallas. Both of those teams would have to win out to get to 11-5. Not impossible by not likely either. Dallas has a tough schedule to finish they year.

 

I was looking at the bracket if the play-offs started today, and 3 out of 4 of the first round games has the visiting team with a better record than the home team... and the 4th game, the teams were tied... By the time this thing is set-up, it could be all 4 games that way... I don't think that's ever happened.

 

Messing around with that yahoo scenario generator it looks like....

This week we beat Denver, Dallas beats Giants, ATL beats Tampa

then we beat the Giants the next week and we've got the 1 seed locked down. The NO game won't mean anything....

 

yeah,both would be 12-4 and we'd have the tie breaker in head-to-head match-up

 

If the Giants drop three in a row like that then the door will really be open for us to go all the way. They have been the team to beat all year but if they drop three in a row then they may have peaked to early or are missing Plax more than they thought they would.

Having the number one seed would be sweet but it also puts the fear of choking on the table.