Playoff Scenarios

Yeah, yeah, it's a little early for this, but with folks speculating about whether 12-4 or 11-5 gets you in, I thought this might be helpful. Here's a list of the potential NFC playoff teams and their remaining schedules. Have at it with your own predictions:

NFC East
N.Y. Giants – 10-1
Washington Redskins – 7-4
Dallas Cowboys – 7-4
Philadelphia Eagles – 5-5-1

NFC North
Chicago Bears – 6-5 (Carolina has tie breaker)
Minnesota Vikings – 6-5 (Minnesota has tie breaker over Carolina)
Green Bay Packers – 5-6

NFC South
Tampa Bay Buccaneers – 8-3
Carolina Panthers – 8-3
Atlanta Falcons – 7-4
New Orleans Saints 6-5

Remaining Schedules
N.Y. Giants – 10-1 - they certainly have more breathing room than anyone, but I don’t see an easy game left for them. It’s unlikely they lose the division title, so I’m not worried about them with regards to the Wild Card race.
11/30 @ Washington
12/7 Philly
12/14 @ Dallas
12/21 Carolina
12/28 @ Minnesota

Washington Redskins – 7-4 -they may very well win 4 of the remaining 5 games. Likely 11-5, possibly 12-4.
11/30 N.Y. Giants
12/7 @ Baltimore
12/14 @ Cincy
12/21 Philly
12/28 @ San Francisco

Dallas Cowboys – 7-4 -I just dunno what to expect from Dallas. At least 2 but maybe as much as 4 wins here. Maybe 11-5, maybe 9-7.
11/27 Seattle
12/7 @ Pittsburgh
12/14 N.Y. Giants
12/20 Baltimore
12/28 @ Philly

Philadelphia Eagles – at 5-5-1, the best they can do is 10-5-1 and that ain’t happening with this schedule. They’re all but out of it.
11/27 Arizona
12/7 @ N.Y. Giants
12/15 Cleveland
12/21 @ Washington
12/28 Dallas

Chicago Bears – 6-5 -Carolina has the tie breaker. They’ve got a chance to win out, but I say they lose at least two of these, putting them at 9-7.
11/30 @ Minnesota
12/7 Jacksonville
12/11 New Orleans
12/22 Green Bay
12/28 @ Houston

Minnesota Vikings – 6-5 -Carolina loses the tie breaker to Minnesota, but Minnesota’s got 4 tough games here. At best 10-6, more likely 9-7 or 8-8.
11/30 Chicago
12/7 @ Detroit
12/14 @ Arizona
12/21 Atlanta
12/28 N.Y. Giants

Green Bay Packers – 5-6 -the best they can do is 10-6, but with this remaining schedule it is a real possibility.
11/30 Carolina
12/7 Houston
12/14 @ Jacksonville
12/22 @ Chicago
12/28 Detroit

Tampa Bay – 8-3 -3 division games, so who knows, but right now they’re in the driver’s seat for the division, by a hair. I say they lose at least one of the division games, but beat the non-division games. Likely 12-4 and the division title.
11/30 New Orleans
12/8 @ Carolina
12/14 @ Atlanta
12/21 San Diego
12/28 Oakland

Atlanta Falcons – 7-4 -They could win as many as 4 of these, putting them at 11-5, but I suspect they’ll end up at 10-6
11/30 @ San Diego
12/7 @ New Orleans
12/14 Tampa Bay
12/21 @ Minnesota
12/28 St. Louis

New Orleans Saints – 6-5 -Winning more than 3 of these is challenging, but they do have that offense. It’s highly unlikely they win all 5, so they’re probably going to be 10-6, 9-7, or worse.
11/30 @ Tampa Bay
12/7 Atlanta
12/11 @ Chicago
12/21 @ Detroit
12/28 Carolina

Carolina Panthers – I gotta think that 12-4 definitely gets us in, 11-5 has a good chance, while anything less is really dependent upon everyone beating everyone up. There are a lot of potential wild card teams playing each other above, so it’s possible, but it’s just as possible that several teams dominate and rise to the top.
11/30 @ Green Bay
12/8 Tampa Bay
12/14 Denver
12/21 @ N.Y. Giants
12/28 @ New Orleans

 

Carolina 10-6

miss playoffs

 

What an ass

 

Interesting scenarios, Paladin...thanks.

 

the only thing we're guaranteed right now is 8-8

 

Monday night vs. Tampa is a playoff game

 

Updated

Likely Divisional Winners
New York - 3 game lead
Minnesota - 1 game lead
Arizona - 3 game lead
Tampa Bay - 1 game lead

The Wild Card Race

NFC North
Chicago's best outcome can be 10-6. Carolina also has a tie-breaker over them. so if Carolina only wins one more game, then they beat Chicago for a wild card slot. The only way for Chicago to beat out Minnesota for a the division title would leave Minnesota with a record of 9-7 or worse. They do have the tie breaker over Carolina, but the only way this comes into factor is if Carolina loses its remaining games and other NFC South and East teams tank at the same time.

NFC East
Unless Dallas can beat both Pittsburgh and the N.Y. Giants back-to-back, they will end up at 11-5 or worse. Washington has 4 remaining games that all look winable (Baltimore and Philly being the most difficult they face). Washington may very well end up at 11-5 also.

NFC South
Tampa Bay's only two challenging games remaining are Carolina and Atlanta. They'll handle San Diego and Oakland easily. Even if they lose to both Atlanta and Carolina, they'll likely end up at 11-5. They beat both Atlanta and Carolina handily earlier in the season. I suspect they'll split those games and end up at 12-5, with whoever beats them likely taking the division.

Atlanta has some dangerous games in New Orleans, Tampa Bay, and Minnesota, but ends with patsy St. Louis. If they win out the remaining 4, then they may very well take the division. But that entails beating Tampa Bay and winning on the road at New Orleans and Minnesota. They'll lose at least one of those games. Likely 11-5 or worse.

For Carolina to have a shot at the division, they not only have to beat Tampa Bay, they need to come up with two more wins in addition to Tampa Bay. On the other hand, two more wins puts them smack dab in the middle of the wild card race. Most likely looking at 11-5 or 12-4. I'd say two more wins - wild card, three or four more wins - division title.

Right now it comes down to Dallas, Washington, Carolina, Tampa Bay, and Atlanta for the wild card race, with one of the NFC South teams taking the division title.

We need Dallas to lose at least 2 more games, Washington to lose at least 1 more game, and Atlanta to lose 2 more games to have a clear hold on the wild card race.

 

Yep. I don't remember many regular season games that were this big. Steelers in 1996? MNF, too.

 

sweet, we usually rule on monday night football.

 

Every game is now a must win.