Panthers at Bengals Fantasy View

Per fantasyguru.com
Carolina (4-2) at Cincinnati (3-2

When and Where: Sunday, October 22, 1 p.m. ET, Cincinnati, OH

Game-time Weather Report: Scattered showers; 52 degrees; 9-mph winds; 30% chance of precipitation



Matchup Overview:

The Panthers have quickly righted their ship, winning four straight games with Steve Smith in the lineup, while the Bengals desperately need to get back on course after upset losses to the Buccaneers and Patriots. Carson Palmer probably is the key player in this one – if he’s on top of his game, it’s very hard to beat the Bengals in Cincinnati, but the Palmer we’ve seen the last month hasn’t been particularly sharp. The Panthers should make their points on the other side; Cincinnati’s run stopping has been a problem for a while, and like most teams, the Bengals don’t have an adequate matchup for Smith in the secondary. Add it all up and this is one of the better Week Seven tilts, matching a pair of 2005 playoff teams that are expected to make a return trip.



Looking Glass:



Looking Better Than Usual:



Steve Smith (WR, Car) – His hamstrings look pretty healthy to us, what do you think? The Bengal secondary has been a little spotty over the last two weeks, but it doesn’t really matter – we’d start Smith against the 1985 Bears right now and expect a big game. Move on to the matchups that demand your attention, not the status of Mr. Smith. When his body is right, he’s just about unstoppable, as you know. We will say this: the Bengal corners are a gambling pair, especially Deltha O’Neil, and they like to play press coverage, setting themselves up to be burned for a big play.



DeShaun Foster (RB, Car) – He’s always been a decent outside runner and he’s starting to get more of the tough yards between the tackles as well. This clearly understands this offense and what they want to do and he’s delivering while healthy. Foster is definitely a good play this week against a Bengal front seven that’s been pushed around by most teams since the third game of the year (532 rushing yards, five TDs, 5.0 yards a carry) and simply gets out-physicaled too often. For the season they’re giving up the 5th most fantasy points in the league, 23.5, and their LBs corps is banged up this week. Start Foster.



Looking Neither Better Nor Worse Than Usual:



Jake Delhomme (QB, Car) – He’s on the road and the Bengal defense is easier to run on than it is to pass on, but Delhomme is never a bad play so long as Steve Smith is close to 100%, and we saw how potent that duo can be last week at Baltimore. Delhomme will never be the most consistent QB in the league, but with his starting wideouts you have to take him seriously against anyone, and the Bengal pass defense has been beaten more than usual in recent weeks. Your roster depth ultimately makes the call here but he’s a solid play, especially since the Bengal offense should be able to put up a fight and keep the game relatively close.



T.J. Houshmandzadeh (WR, Cin) – He’s been dynamite since he came back three games ago (23-291-3, 31 targets), and there’s a case to be made that he’s really the best wideout on the team at the moment (Chad Johnson has 13-174-0 over the same span, with 24 targets). Ken Lucas and Chris Gamble are decent corners, but Houshmandzadeh looks capable of beating anyone these days, with his physical game, determination, and rapport with QB Carson Palmer. There’s no reason to sit TJH down these days, no matter the matchup.



Chad Johnson (WR, Cin) – Where ya’ at, 85? No, seriously, where are you? Johnson has been getting a slew of targets the last couple of weeks (24 in all), but they haven’t added up to anything special (12-163, no TDs). And everyone knows the Steelers made CJ a non-factor the previous week. Johnson’s shoulder shouldn’t be an issue because he’s listed as probable, but based on how T.J. Houshmandzadeh has been the team’s main red-zone guy over the past year and a half, Johnson owners have a legitimate right to be a little puzzled. We still love Johnson for his desire to be great, and we know Carson Palmer has to click with him before long, but nothing is going to come easy against the solid Panther corners, and anyone playing in stock market or challenge games can’t pay the freight for Johnson right now. You add that all up and we’re looking at a neutral matchup, albeit the Panthers have allowed more WR production than you might initially suspect (only 10 teams have given up more). Finally, on Johnson, those who study the Bengals on tape feel his lack of big plays and TDs aren’t his fault; they basically pin that on the issues the QB has.



Keyshawn Johnson (WR, Car) – Physical receivers have done well against the Bengals in recent weeks (even Michael Clayton found the endzone last week), so the resurgent Johnson has a shot to make some plays here. And with the Bengals likely to roll safety help over to Steve Smith’s side of the field, that should leave Johnson working 1-on-1 for much of the afternoon. Johnson pretty much catches five balls or more every week, and he’s got two TDs in four games even with Smith in the lineup. But we should note that corner Tory James is pretty solid and matches up relatively well with Johnson.



Looking Worse Than Usual:



Carson Palmer (QB, Cin) – He hasn’t played very well for three weeks in a row to be honest (Palmer admitted after his four-TD game at Pittsburgh that he struggled and his receivers bailed him out), and now here comes a date with Julius Peppers and the imposing Panther defense. True, Kyle Boller threw for three touchdowns against this defense (even if two of them were fluky deflections) and Drew Brees rang up 349 yards on the Panthers three weeks ago. But Palmer’s not feeling it right now, and he doesn’t seem to have the same comfort level most likely due to his comeback from his knee injury. You also have to realize that he’ll be without two key starters on the O-Line, C Rich Braham and LT Levi Jones, two huge losses. At least the Cincinnati offense will have to focus more on the pass game to mask some of the problems on the line, and Palmer certainly has the tools to light up anyone’s secondary, with overdue WR Chad Johnson begging to see the endzone, and WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh turning into the best #2 target in the league. But clearly, it’s not an ideal spot for a Palmer play. If you own him he’s probably your best quarterback, and there isn’t enough of a case to make a move to sit him, but do note that he’s definitely LWTU going into this one.



Rudi Johnson (RB, Cin) – The Panther front seven has shut down the run nicely the last four weeks (93-298, 3.2 yards a carry), and Johnson is running behind a line that’s been struggling and now has OT Levi Jones and C Rich Braham out, two very key starters. If you’re in a smaller league and absolutely loaded in the backfield, this might be a spot where you can conceivably sit Johnson this week. RB Chris Perry (off the PUP list) is going to cut a bit into the pie, as well.



Bengal Defense – They didn’t do much against Bruce Gradkowski last week - two sacks, one takeaway – and Jake Delhomme has been very good about limiting negative plays of late (just two picks, and only eight sacks the last five weeks). And it’s hard to envision the Bengals laying the wood to the Panthers, given that Cincinnati is a mild 3-point favorite here. You can probably find more attractive options for your fantasy defense this week.



Too Risky To Play:



Chris Perry (RB, Cin) – The Bengals haven’t even officially announced he will be activated to the 53-man roster, but that’s fully expected to happen. There will be much better weeks to consider him, and you have to see something from him first before using him.



Reaches of the Week:



Drew Carter (WR, Car) – He scored on a big play last week and he’s really emerging as a threat for the Panthers, who are very high on him. His pass target numbers have been way down since Smith has been back, but he’s still a decent bet to make a play against a Bengal team that doesn’t have anything special at corner after their two starters.



History Report:

The teams last met Week Fourteen back in 2002 with the host Panthers taking a high-scoring affair, 52-31. It didn’t garner a lot of attention back then but this was essentially Steve Smith’s coming-out party: he caught five passes for 144 yards and a score, and he also ran back two punts for touchdowns.





Team Stats:



Carolina




Offensive Stats:
Total
Defensive Stats:
Total

Rushing Yards per game
102.8
Rushing Yards per game
115

Passing Yards per game
207.5
Passing Yards per game
202.7

Rushing TDs scored
3
Rushing TDs scored
3

Passing TDs scored
6
Passing TDs scored
8

Cincinnati




Offensive Stats:
Total
Defensive Stats:
Total

Rushing Yards per game
97.4
Rushing Yards per game
140.4

Passing Yards per game
212
Passing Yards per game
195.4

Rushing TDs scored
5
Rushing TDs scored
7

Passing TDs scored
7
Passing TDs scored
5

 

Lineup Updates:

Bengal RB Chris Perry is expected to be activated and active for the team this weekend. There’s been some talk of him playing some WR, since the team is very thin this week at the position.

The Bengals will line up with Antonio Chatman as their line backup receiver this week since Chris Henry is suspended and WRs Kelley Washington and Tab Perry are out with injuries.

Panther RB DeAngelo Williams is likely out, so RB Nick Goings should see some time behind DeShaun Foster.



Place Kicker Report:

Opponents have converted on just 55% of field goals attempted against Cincinnati. John Kasay averages over two field goals a game but faces a defense that is allowing just one converted field goal per game. Kasay has converted two or more field goals in nine of his last 10 games. Shayne Graham has converted two or more field goals in eight of his last 10 games. He also has two or more field goals in his last six straight home games. During this stretch at home, Graham has converted on 14-of-15 attempts.



Game Prediction:

Panthers 27 Bengals 20