Panther verses Buccaneers running commentary

We have very little chance of winning this game. Garcia always owns us, our pass defense blows, our pass rush blows, our offense is inconsistant, and we're starting David Carr. If we're lucky, we keep this within 10 points and get out of here without any serious injuries.

Final score:
TB 27
Car 10

 

5-4, I think. We've also worn them several times in the preseason, but I'm not sure about the record there.

 

that sounds right. i also think that we are 3-1 against the bucs in the blue jerseys.

 

Panthers 20 TB 17

DeShaun goes for 150 yards

 

Makes total sense, but I'm holding out hope that the defense (and the rest of the team for that matter) responds to Jenkins calling them out.

 

From FantasyGuru.com
Match-up Overview:

The Bucs have lost seven of their past eight games against Carolina, but this year they seem better equipped to handle the Panthers, and this is a chance to make a statement in the division. Historically, they have had trouble running the ball against Carolina, but the Panthers are giving up a lot of yardage in the passing game, and the Bucs now have a safe and effective trigger man in Jeff Garcia. The Panthers are 21-2 in games that RB DeShaun Foster carries the football more than 15 times in a game. Foster figures get a lot of work, especially if David Carr is playing quarterback for the Panthers, but Steve Smith has been huge the last two seasons against Tampa Bay, with four 100-yard receiving games and two scores - and he did nothing last week against Atlanta, so he’s due. Then again, David Carr might be his QB, so who knows what to expect.



Looking Glass:


Looking Better Than Usual:



DeShaun Foster (RB, Car) – Last week against Atlanta, Foster had a stellar outing, rushing for 122 yards and a TD and scoring on a 13-yard reception. He ran with purpose, intensity, and vision behind the solid zone blocking of his O-line and for the season he is averaging an impressive 5.2 yards per carry. For the season, Foster has rushed for 238 yards, has scored 2 TDs, and has caught 6 balls for 40 yards as the Panthers’ legitimate #1RB. The most encouraging thing about his performance last week was the power and ease with which he fought off would-be tacklers, and that will come in handy this week, as the Bucs do make runners work for their yardage. The Buc defense that has given up an average of 118 yards, 1 TD, and some noteworthy production through the air to opposing RBs this season. Despite his not having much success against the Bucs last season, we envision Foster having a solid game that should involve a score and some catches out of the backfield, since he’ll be the bell-cow in the Carolina run game. The Buc LBs are great, but their D-Line is average, and with David Carr likely in, head coach John Fox is going to hand the ball off as much as he possibly can.



Jeff Garcia (QB, TB) – Gruden’s man-crush was super quiet last week against the Rams, throwing for just 151 yards and bringing his season totals to a modest 595 passing yards and 2 TDs. The story with Garcia is that he’s rock-solid but limited in his potential due to the emphasis on the run in Tampa Bay. He’s been making great use of Joey Galloway, but aside from him, there’s not much for Garcia to work with in his offense. In Week Four, however, he’ll face off against a Carolina defense that has given up an average of 250 yards and 2 TDs to opposing QBs this season, which indicates there’s potential for him to help your fantasy team this week. He fired 3 TD strikes against the Panthers last year as an Eagle, so there’s some solid history for him to build on here. The key to remember is that Garcia won’t attempt enough passes to post gaudy numbers. His ceiling seems to be 200 yards and 2 TDs until he proves otherwise or until Gruden opens up the playbook a bit more. But you can clearly dink and dunk against the Panthers with success, and that’s what he’ll likely do in this matchup, especially since their running game is looking a little shaky in this matchup.



Tampa Bay Defense – This resurgent defense held the Rams to three points last week, adding three interceptions, a forced fumble and one sack. This week, they might get to face the sack-prone David Carr behind an offensive line that could be without starting RG Jeremy Bridges, so they’re looking real good. Carr processes information about as quickly as that old 286 computer you bought in 1997 that’s gathering dust in your basement, so the Bucs could come through here.



Looking Neither Better Nor Worse Than Usual:



Steve Smith (WR, Car) – In Week Three, Smith disappeared completely, registering just 1 catch for 10 yards against the Falcons. It looked like he got nicked up a bit battling DeAngelo Hall, but the effectiveness of the running game also limited him in that contest. Through three games, #89 has registered 16/281/4 and has asserted his will on opposing corners. He could very well have a field day against the Bucs this week because of their slower CBs. And if you need any more motivation to start one of the league’s best WRs, you can chew on the fact that Smith blistered Tampa Bay last season for 7/112 and 8/149/1 in their two meetings. Unfortunately, you have to bring your expectations down a notch because it’s looking like it will be David Carr behind center on Sunday. At least Carr is a major upgrade over Chris Weinke, and Smith’s speed has given the Bucs fits. But keep the expectations in check this week.



Joey Galloway (WR, TB) – Galloway caught 4 passes for 42 yards last week against the Rams, and he took a hard shot to the abdomen that sent him to the sidelines for several plays. He was noticeably shaken, but it looks like he’ll be good to go. His bottom line after three games is a respectable 13/249/2. With the Bucs focusing heavily on running the football lately and Garcia only attempting about 20 passes a game, Galloway’s production will have to come on big gainers, which he’s more than capable of generating, if he’s to come up big. This week he’ll go toe-to-toe with a Panther defense that has allowed a solid average of 13/162/1 to opposing WRs in 2007, so you can expect Joey to see his usual 5-8 pass targets and put up serviceable, but not great, fantasy numbers for your #2WR spot. Last year against Carolina, Galloway scored a TD, but his numbers left a lot to be desired. Don’t fret over that history too much because this vet always makes things happen, and the Bucs may look to pass it a little more in this one.



DeAngelo Williams (RB, Car) – As a sidekick to DeShaun Foster, Williams ran for 47 yards against the Falcons last week, bringing his season totals to 140 rushing yards and 33 receiving yards on 6 receptions. He’s shown some good juice hitting the hole in his limited action, but for now Foster will get the bulk of the carries. Facing off against the Bucs in Week Four could be interesting for Williams because Tampa Bay’s defense has given up an average of 6 catches for 47 yards to opposing RBs this season (in addition to 118 yards rushing and 1 TD). This could easily be a game where he finds himself catching a lot of screens and check downs with room to run, and since DeAngelo seems to excel in open space, he could do quite well. Just keep in mind that his touches won’t likely exceed 15, so he’ll have to make the most of his opportunities if he’s to produce.



Looking Worse Than Usual:



Jake Delhomme (QB, Car) – Jake the Snake left the game against Atlanta last week with an elbow issue, but before he departed he threw for 109 yards and 2 TDs. On the year, Delhomme has fired the pigskin for 617 yards with a TD-to-INT ratio of 8-to-1. He’s been getting good enough protection from his O-line this season to do some nice things, and if it continues there’s nothing stopping this QB from having success week in, week out. If Delhomme can suck up the elbow pain and give it a go, he’ll square off against a Buc defense that has permitted an average of 200 yards and 1 TD to opposing QBs this season, which is pretty good and pretty bad for Delhomme. In 2006, Jake tallied 500 yards, 3 TDs, and 2 INTs in his two meetings with Tampa Bay, which suggests a pretty mid-range outing is coming this week – and that’s only if he miraculously starts the game.



Carnell Williams (RB, TB) – The rib injury has us concerned because Caddy looked to be in a significant amount of pain last week against St. Louis. He rushed for 46 yards and a TD before he gave way to Earnest Graham, who tore it up with a pair of sick TD runs. Through three games, Caddy has gained 167 yards and has scored 3 TDs, but if he can’t stay on the field, he’s not very valuable to fantasy GMs. This week he’ll battle a Carolina front seven that has given up just 1 TD and an average of 87 yards in addition to significant production through the air to opposing rushers in 2007. If he’s to make a big impact in this tough matchup, it will have to come by way of the pass or by crossing the stripe. He scored once against the Panthers last season in their two battles, but his yardage totals were quite lame. With the injury, the unfavorable matchup, and his poor track record against Carolina, you could easily make a case for benching him this week if you’ve got depth. Otherwise, you may just have to grin and bear it. If he’s out, get Graham in his spot if you can because that man’s got some juice in him.



Carolina Defense – The Panthers have yet to pick off a pass this season, and Jeff Garcia has yet to throw an interception, so that’s not a favorable pattern. Julius Peppers has no sacks, which will make him a very hungry and dangerous player against the Bucs, but he no longer has Kenyatta Walker to push around.

 

Too Risky To Play:



Ike Hilliard (WR, TB) – This vet posted just 2/32 last week against St. Louis, and on the year he has reeled in 8 balls for 132 yards. You can’t depend on him for consistent production, since Garcia doesn’t air it out a whole heck of a lot. We do expect more passing this week, but do yourself a favor and find an offense that is more WR-friendly, and a player who is more fantasy friendly. Matching up against a Panther defense that he scored on last season and that has given up an average of 13/161/2 to opposing wideouts is certainly favorable and could reward a desperation start, but this guy is just too hit-or-miss for our tastes.



Secondary Panther WRs – Drew Carter and Keary Colbert teamed up for 4 grabs and 69 receiving yards last week against the Falcons as they continued their lousy support of Steve Smith. On the season, this duo has posted identical 7/86 bottom lines, but Carter has scored twice while Colbert has done nothing of note. At the rate these guys are going, the Panther front office might went to send someone to kidnap Keyshawn from the ESPN studio. The Buc defense has permitted just 1 TD and an average of 10/126 to opposing WRs this season, which doesn’t bode well for either of these guys. Carter and Colbert could always strike for a big play with defenses keying on Smith, but until they show some heart and a discernible level of consistency, they’re chancy starts.



Reaches of the Week:



Jeff King (TE, Car) – It’s time to take notice of this guy because he posted 4/56/1 last week against Atlanta and he has collected 13/130/1 over his first three games. He’s no Gates or Winslow, but if you’ve been watching the Panthers, you know he’s seeing the ball enough to make plays. King doesn’t have vicious speed or athleticism, but fundamentally he’s a sound player with good hands. This week he’ll square off against a Tampa Bay defense, chock-full of talented LBs, that has ceded an average of 4/26 to opposing TEs in 2006. It’s a bad matchup, for sure, but he’s producing at a much more consistent level than a lot of tight ends out there, so we’re comfortable reaching him. This is especially true since David “Check down QB” Carr will likely start for the Panthers.



Alex Smith (TE, TB) – Against the Rams in Week Three, Smith managed just 3 receptions for 27 yards, bringing his season totals to a scanty 7/95, which is far from useful for fantasy purposes. He’s seeing more targets from Garcia as the season progresses, at least, and could be active this week as the Panthers are allowing teams to dink and dunk. The Panther defense, which Smith did okay against last season, has allowed an average of 5/52 to opposing TEs this season, so there’s a case for playing him.


History Report:

NFC South division-mates, these teams played last year in Week Three at Tampa and Week Ten at Carolina, and the Panthers came out on top twice, 26-24 and 24-10. They'll face each other again this season in Week Seventeen at Tampa.



Buccaneers – In the Week Three game last year – the game that ended his season – Chris Simms was 13/24 for 139 yards, 1 passing TD, and 1 INT. He also ran one in from 2 yards out for a rushing TD. Apparently, no one was aware of the seriousness of his injury, and Simms remained in for most of the game. RB Cadillac Williams (19/48) had a TD, TE Alex Smith had 4 catches for 72 yards, and while WR Joey Galloway had just 1 reception, it was good for an 8-yard score. Then in Week Ten, Bruce Gradkowski was in at QB, and he was 17/32 for 173 yards, with 1 TD and 2 INTs. Caddy had a flat tire (15/44, 0), and Galloway was 5/87. And WR Ike Hilliard (4/30) scored the only Buc TD in the road loss at Carolina. Last season in Week Thirteen, this year's QB in Tampa, Jeff Garcia, had taken the reins in Philly, and he had a very good game against the Panthers: 21/39 for 312 yards and 3 TD and 0 INTs.



Panthers – Back in Week Three of last year, Panther QB Jake Delhomme was 22/36 for 272 yards, with 1 TD, 1 INT. RB DeShaun Foster had 20 carries for 82 yards, but it was now-retired WR Keyshawn Johnson, a former TB Buccaneer, who scored a rushing TD on a 4-yard run. He also was 7/97 receiving, with another TD. WR Steve Smith had 7 receptions for 112 yards, but he didn’t score in that game. PK John Kasay, however, put on a clinic, with 4 long-distance FGs (51,51,49,46). It marked the first time in the history of the NFL that a kicker had 4 FGs of longer that 45 yards in the same game, and to make it even sweeter, the fourth one was the game winner. In the Week Ten game, Delhomme was 22/34 for 240 yards, with 2 TDs and 1 INT. Foster was just 13/48, but FB Brad Hoover (5/14) scored a TD. Smith had a nice 8/149, 1-TD game, while Johnson (6/37) again scored against the team that cut him in the win over TB last year.



Lineup Updates:

If Panther QB Jake Delhomme can’t go, veteran David Carr will get the start.
Place Kicker Report:

Matt Bryant does not have a bonus-range field goal in 2007. The last time he had one was back in Week Thirteen of 2006. John Kasay has either missed a field goal or not converted one in his last two home games. He only has four total this year, but they are all from the bonus range. Kasay does have nine extra points as well.

 

Could someone create a chat somewhere else?