Muhammad's Salary this year and next

It can happen - Young 'replacing' Moose - but i wonder how Walter will play when it counts.

I have a feeling he'll be active this week. maybe playing slot.

 

He didn't have any drops this week? Awesome! Seriously, that makes me happy. I still haven't had a chance to watch the tape yet. Too many other things going on this week.

That was a flippant remark by me, not a legitimate concern. Although arguably, it could be. Like Morgan (although not to that extent), Moose has had a hart time staying healthy the past few years.

I'm not saying he's Torry Holt, but I do think he's playing above the level expected of him. At least the level I expected of him, anyway. I have no desire to see him remain a starter at WR.

I'm pointing my finger at Muhammad because I don't see him playing up to the level of play that goes with his position on the depth chart and his salary. He's a #1 receiver, and he's paid like one, but from what I've seen so far this year, he's dropping roughly 50% of what's thrown at him. I'm not arguing against the notion he's not being used properly. He may very well be. But #1 receivers catch the freaking ball. Period. Really, that's what it boils down to for me. If Moose was a #3 guy who got bumped up to a starting role because of injury, I'd cut him a lot more slack, just like I do Smith.

Granted, Smith is a #2 WR, and has been since last year. Is he paid like one? I honestly don't know. If he is, he's probably overpaid. But I still think he's a Pro Bowl caliber kick returner, so maybe he's being compensated for that. As far as Smith's drops go, yeah, I know he's had some. But unless I'm mistaken, he's not dropping more than 30% of what's thrown to him. And I can live with 70% catch rate from a guy who should be a #3 wideout. But that's just me.

As far as run/pass ratio goes, you're probably right. But it would depend on how Moose got those additional 35, wouldn't it? If 5 of those were in the end zone, that would change a lot in the way of dynamics, wouldn't it? Most of the games this year, we could have used that extra 6. For the record, I'm not accusing Moose of dropping 5 TD's this year. That's simply not true. Just speaking hypothetically here.

I'd agree with that assessment.

Agreed. Wouldn't fit the scheme, as I understand it. We need some speed along with the size. And definitely need a guy who will put up YAC.

Agreed. Walter Young probably won't ever be Moose, circa 1999. Not that we'll ever have that in this system, but we definitely need a guy with speed, savvy, and ability to make plays consistently.

You're right -- I do have expectations for Moose going into a game, based on what I've seen so far this year, combined with the criticism I've read about his game for the past 2 years. Seems like in 2001, he was a good receiver but couldn't stay healthy and started to get the dropsies at the end of the year. In 2002, the scheme changed, the injuries continued, and the dropsies got worse. Here we are in 2003 and Moose still has a significant problem with drops that is not improving as best I can tell. The thing that pisses me off is that he's proven he's a better receiver than this. But for whatever reason, it's just not happening on the field.

Can you point out a game this season when Smith has had a "much worse" game than Moose? I can't think of one. Last year, most certainly. Smith actually cost us at least one loss last year, and maybe more due to the fumbling. But I can't think of one this year. According to panthers.com stats, Moose has fumbled twice, Smith once, but none ended up being turnovers.

And Smith is putting it in the end zone every 10 catches -- 29 catches, 3 TD's.

Just a guess, but I'd lay that at the feet of the big 3: Hurney, Fox, and Henning.

 

I don't believe that Young will ever be as good as Moose in his prime. I don't think he is as good as Moose is now. I am hoping that Young is smart enough to learn how to run routes from Moose. That is the thing about Young that bothers me the most. He can't get open. He can't get open and Moose can't catch. Between the two of them you could have a pretty good reciever.

Proehl is a problem. He can't be a 1 or 2 and can't be a 4 or 5 because he can't play ST. That keeps him as the 3 the rest of this season and next. I don't like sticking a rookie in as your #1 at any time. I can't think of a time that this has worked for a playoff bound team. At best you could draft a #2, but if Moose continues to crap out then Smith would be our #1. He hasn't shown me close to that yet. I'm not sure that he is a great #2, but about 5 more 100 yard days would have me changing my tune. That means we have to find a legit FA #1 WR. Not going to happen. We can't draft a player and bring him along slowly, because we only run 3 WR sets, and Proehl and Smith seem to be set in stone as the #2 and #3. The only way this situation turns out any better next year is if Dyson comes back and realizes his potential (then desides to stay here), we stumble accross a Priest Holmes type of supprise in FA, we get SUPER lucky in the draft, or Moose suddenly reverts to his earlier form.

In other words, it's time to come to grips with the run. We are going to be seeing a lot of it for a while.

 

Coach Fox.......is that you in there????

 

>>but from what I've seen so far this year, he's dropping roughly 50% of what's thrown at him.

I count seven drops. I also count at least 10 uncatchable balls, and a few defended ones. And two really bad decisions by Delhomme.

>>Agreed. Wouldn't fit the scheme, as I understand it. We need some speed along with the size. And definitely need a guy who will put up YAC.

That's been a frustrating part of Smith that few people catch. If he's getting catches, great. But most of the 4-7 yard gains he's pulling in are, I'd assume, designed to get him RAC. He's a somewhat dangerous open field runner. And yet they're still just 4-7 yard catches.

But I digress. There should be other people doing that job, and that's not Smith's fault.



>>Can you point out a game this season when Smith has had a "much worse" game than Moose?

Saints. Muhammad led the team, granted with only five catches but it's still a decent game in comparison, with 42 yards for a guy who's never been a RAC guy. He was also overthrown on a couple deep balls. Smith had one for thirteen, listed as the fifth best ground gainer in the air. He had a total of 16 yards on two punt returns.

He also outgained Smith 2-1 on 4 catches to 3 in the Tampa Bay game. Certainly, you don't want to see your best receiver be the best receiver two out of six games, but certainly the only deep receiver on the team is going to get those looks.

 

That's probably why drops are not an official NFL stat -- they're too subjective. Almost certainly, some of those 10 you're calling uncatchable, I'm calling drops. I'll even concede that I may be exaggerating some, speaking off the top of my head. But I don't have the time to go through 18 hours of game tape to take a firm count, and I doubt we'd meet in the middle on that issue anyway, so I'll just let it go and agree to disagree.

I don't know that I'd let him off the hook so fast. I agree totally that a shifty speedster like SS should be getting more YAC. As I'm not intelligent about the fine arts of route running and such, I'll just speculate that the cause for Smith's catch and stop performances have probably been at least partially due to imperfect route running on his part and less than ideal ball placement on Delhomme's.

I may have the chance to take a look at those games later, but for now, I'll take your word for it. Besides, the point we agree on is that Muhammad has only lived up to his #1 rating 33% of the time, at least statistically, and that it's less than desirable, if not unacceptable.

 

>>That's probably why drops are not an official NFL stat -- they're too subjective. Almost certainly, some of those 10 you're calling uncatchable, I'm calling drops.

They do it in baseball. They call errors, and so on, it's not impossible.
Yes, it's subjective. For instance, that flea flicker play. Not a drop. It hit his hands, but it was basically in his hands when he hit the ground. I remember another deep left sideline pass that is negotiable either way, but there was most definately a defender's hand on the ball before it was caught. League determines that as a defended pass? Can't be a drop too. I can't say what would have happened to that ball unimpeded.


>>I'll even concede that I may be exaggerating some, speaking off the top of my head.

Certainly. 50% drops would mean that he's getting, what, 65 targets, if you assume a natural amount of balls that weren't going to be there.



>>I don't know that I'd let him off the hook so fast. I agree totally that a shifty speedster like SS should be getting more YAC.

Well, I didn't want to divert the focus to Smith as if to say that Smith hasn't played good, or that he's a major problem. But it's a little concerning that they use him that way, and that he can't do anything with it.

>> Besides, the point we agree on is that Muhammad has only lived up to his #1 rating 33% of the time, at least statistically,

Statistically I think there's maybe two games, JAX and Indy, where you can really be unhappy with statistics. In the JAX game, he did have two of the 7 drops. In Indy, he just wasn't getting open. Basically, his production is based on whether or not he can get open, since he doesn't have the savvy veterans who gun it into him to make the catch anyway. He doesn't drop those.

 

Smith, at his size, those plays just don't have much shot.

You run him on a five yard out, short side of the field. He's already pinned in. The corner has some respect for Smih's speed, but is playing off main just a few yards anyway. He catches, gets hit. Backer comes in to clean him up.

That play is good to pickup 5 yards on first down, but with no regularity is Smith ever going to get more than that. Occassionally he may use his quickness to elude, but that will buy time for the pursuit.

Not his fault, really. It's just not his best use. His speed is negated, and he's not a guy I ask to break a tackles to get the staple of his yards.

I'd like to see us work Moose off a slant more. And then maybe we can put Smith in the slot and work a pick off him to free him up so he can use his speed.

We tried that vs Indy, except backwards. Luckily that they held Moose, but i'd like to see it with the roles reversed.