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The Brain · Apr 14, 2009 at 7:25 AM

45catfan said: ↑

Gantt also wrote an article saying that the best pass rushers typically were not first round picks. Pretty interesting, so I think the idea of maybe getting more picks without necessarily getting a first round selection back is the idea of the bigger the pool, the better prospects of landing a keeper.

Honestly, outside of Raji and Jerry odds would have it that someone selected after them is going to have a better career than one or both of them. As Darin basically put it; scouting goes a long way, but luck definitely plays into the equation as well.

Quote per Gantt: "Of the top 100 players on the NFL's all-time sack chart, only 45 were first-round picks, and only 23 of those were top-10 overall selections. So for every top-five pick such as Bruce Smith and Reggie White on the list, there's a Michael Strahan (second round, 40th overall) or a Kevin Greene (fifth round, 113th). Scanning the top 10, you'll find undrafted undersized defensive tackles such as John Randle, and late-round afterthoughts like Richard Dent (eighth round, 203rd) scattered equally among the first rounders."

Full article: http://www.heraldonline.com/247/story/1248046.html
Click to expand...

Not shooting the messenger, but that's a stupid list that Gantt put together. You have to put into the equation that since the guys listed were drafted, the value of the pass rusher has increased. Due to that teams that would previously had waited till the 2nd or 3rd round to get a guy now would pick him earlier. Until the new data can be determined 5-10 years for now his assessment of picking a DE later being equal to early is kinda useless.

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