KC Joyner

I'd forgotten about this guy's analysis, probably because they stash him in that whole 'insider' thing. Trying to find his 7 reasons Newton blows or something, but in the meantime, here's this.

Frank/Moose: Is Cam deserving of #1 pick?
KC Joyner: says depends on if it's based on physical ability or on ability to quarterback. Says he has had good quarterback coaches and Florida and Auburn and his footwork is still very very bad, so why are people convinced he'll make the jump at the pro level.

F/M: When evaluating Cam, what made you think he wasn't a top tier QB?
KC: Mechanics, footwork, lack of urgency in backpedal, not stepping into throws, lack of experience reading defenses, didn't do a lot of throwing on the run (just ran when broke pocket). Have a lot of ground to cover. He looks like more a long term project. Does not look like a guy you put in on week 1. Like Tim Tebow.

F/M: Where is Cam going to go?
KC: Likely in the top 12, but if he doesn't go in the top 12, he could drop to the second round unless the Seahawks pick him up.

F/M:Who is your first quarterback to go?
KC: I have reasons to believe Gabbert is not that great, but Mallett is the most pro ready guy.

F/M:Is Cam rising boards after Combine/Pro Day? Is he going to start and be great right away?
KC: Most quarterbacks will need to work at it, not going to be like Sam Bradford. Most rookies are projects. He has the physical talent, but do you take him as a first round pick? He's a talented player, some team will take him and he could turn into a very good player. If you're any of the teams with a top ten pick... If he doesn't work, what then? You can't get the top 10 pick wrong, and you can draft a defensive player that can be a defensive cornerstone of your team for years and years to come the same way Cam would be on offense.

F/M: Panthers have Clausen and Pike. Defense was okay. Offensive line, RB solid. How do you address QB situation?
KC: Tough one. None of the QBs you should take at #1. Ideally you'd trade down, but may not be possible. I do NOT think Clausen is the long term answer, but there are some quarterbacks who might make it to round 2 (he doesn't know we dont have a 2nd rounder, lol)

F/M: Parcells rules... Drafting a quarterback, 7 criteria... Newton falls short in 5 of 7. Moose: Where is Christian Ponder fit? Frank: *laughs* Tell us about Bill Parcells' rules.
KC: Rules Parcells uses gleaned from the grizzled personnel guys who have been doing this since the 50s and 60s. Gist is you want to have guys who have physical talent but also want them to have learned as much about quarterbacking at the next level as possible in college. Not having to take a guy from ground 0 to build him up, he's coming in at a level you don't need to raise him as far. By and large, good quarterbacks do check off on this, but not all, and some that do are not any good (Leinart is mentioned)

F/M: Could you see how Cam Newton could become a face of the franchise, reinvigorate the franchise?
KC: One team that was in real bad team last year but is on the rise... Lions. Lions pick him up, weren't as fired up last year but see how he changed the entire defense. He's physical, fast, mean, plays hard... Lions, who had horrible defense, played MUCH better, and now the fans are excited about Suh more than they were Stafford. This is why Panthers need to pick up a guy who really elevates the D, excited fan base.

F/M:CBA limits chance of finding quality guys in FA. If you don't take a QB, how can you address the position?
KC:Need to find the next Muhsin Muhammad. If you give an average QB good receivers, the QB will do well. If you don't give a QB guys who get open, he won't do very much. Not a long term answer, but Clausen is solid with options to throw to. Can't take Julio Jones/AJ Green that high but if you can get a good possession receiver to improve in the dink and dunk.

F/M:If you're the Panthers, who are you taking?
KC: Fairley. Will be close to Suh.

 

http://charlotte.cbslocal.com/show/bustin-loose-with-frank-moose/

http://charlotte.cbslocal.com/2011/03/09/breaking-down-cam-newtons-workout-at-auburn-pro-day/

 

Had me for the most part until he said this.

 

I still think Fairley is the pick

 

yeah I don't think Fairley is the smarter pick compared to Dareus. He just isn't as versatile, or steady. A DT that can rush the passer is good, but again it's not like 1995-2000 when a blessed DT could rack up 10+ sacks (Sapp, Farr, Glover, Randle) consistently, so you have to have some ass behind you, not be a huge disappointment in the run game, too. I don't know if Fairley can do that.

Anyway, anyone have the Insider stuff on Joyner talking about Newton? There were supposed to be like 5-7 reasons Newton isn't a first rounder.

 

KC Joyner: says depends on if it's based on physical ability or on ability to quarterback. Says he has had good quarterback coaches and Florida and Auburn and his footwork is still very very bad, so why are people convinced he'll make the jump at the pro level.

Yeah, but he clearly didn't need to focus on footwork. Dude won 2 championships, and was the reason his teams won 2 championships, and also won the Heisman. The question I'd have is - now that he likely DOES need to work on feet - will he? And I'd say yes.

KC: I have reasons to believe Gabbert is not that great, but Mallett is the most pro ready guy.

Like Clausen was the most pro-ready.

How many stud QB's did Parcells draft and develop? Any?

 

This.

 

here's the article mags
There have been a number of retorts to last week's article that said Cam Newton should not be a first-round pick in the 2011 NFL draft.
The gist of most of them is that whatever mechanical issues Newton has that currently make him a less-than-polished pro prospect could be overcome with NFL-caliber coaching.
That is certainly a valid point, but as noted near the end of the article, the three items listed there were only part of a much larger array of question marks.
To be more specific, there are at least seven other issues of note for any team that drafts Newton. And again, I am not saying that Newton shouldn't be drafted or is destined to be a bust. I am questioning the premise that he should be an ironclad lock for the first round. Here are more reasons:
Limited experience in reading defenses

Newton basically ran a one-read offense at Auburn and wasn't asked to go through the complex read progressions he'll have to go through in the NFL.
One way to illustrate this is by noting that he threw only 12 checkdown-type passes in nine games against FBS opponents. A checkdown is usually a throw of last resort at the end of the reading progression, and his low attempt volume here should be a reason for concern. At Auburn, if Newton didn't find his receiver, he usually just tucked the ball and ran. While this may have worked in college, it won't be as effective in the NFL, where linebackers will be far better suited to punish him for that decision.
His experience questions are compounded by fact that just over 20 percent of his throws against FBS teams last year were screen passes. A screen is really a rush attempt in disguise and thus doesn't call for much in the way of reading a defense.
Limited evidence of an ability to hit passes when forced to scramble

It is assumed that Newton can be a playmaker through the air when he is forced to leave the pocket. He possesses that ability, but the 2010 season offered little in the way of metric evidence of that skill.
Newton did complete 7 of 11 passes against FBS teams last year on plays in which his receivers had to adjust their routes because of his scrambling. That is slightly more than one completion every two games, but the number is also somewhat deceptive, because four of the completions came in the SEC championship game against South Carolina alone. Take those out and Newton had only three scramble completions in nine FBS contests. While his completion percentage is high, the low volume of attempts is not exactly proof positive that he is a passing threat on the run.
Comes up very short in 'The Parcells Rules' for drafting quarterbacks

In his long tenure as a successful talent evaluator, Bill Parcells came up with a set of seven criteria he used when drafting quarterbacks. These include: being a three-year starter, a senior in college, a college graduate, starting 30 games, winning 23 games, having a 2-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio and a completion rate of 60 percent.
These are a high set of standards, but quarterbacks who meet them have superb NFL track records.
For proof, consider the first-round draft picks who have met those criteria in the BCS era (1999-2010): Byron Leftwich, Matt Leinart, Eli Manning, Chad Pennington, Philip Rivers and Tim Tebow. Four of those quarterbacks have led their teams to playoff berths, and one has won the Super Bowl.
Now check out how Newton stacks up in these areas: He is a one-year FBS starter and a junior who did not graduate college. He started 14 games, had 14 wins, posted a 30-to-7 touchdown-to-interception ratio and a completion rate of 65.4 percent.
That means he meets only two of the seven criteria -- the touchdown-to-interception ratio and the completion percentage. He falls far short of meeting the Parcells bar.
High volume of coaching changes


Newton has had four offensive coordinators in his six high school and college seasons. That number will increase to five in seven seasons once he reaches the pros.
Recent history offers two high-profile quarterbacks with a similar volume of play-caller changes -- Jason Campbell and Alex Smith. Both had seven offensive coordinators in the past ten college/NFL seasons. Those constant changes are often noted as a primary reason that neither has reached his potential. It certainly does not offer much in the way of encouragement that Newton can overcome this obstacle.
Coachability

The obvious counterargument to those who say Newton's mechanics issues will disappear with NFL-caliber coaching is to ask why they haven't disappeared with his previous coaches. It's not as if former Florida Gators head coach Urban Meyer or Auburn offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn lacked the ability to teach Newton proper drop mechanics.
Newton meets only two of the seven criteria -- the touchdown to interception ratio and the completion percentage -- that falls far short of topping the Parcells bar.



There was also an issue that showed up on tape that brings Newton's coachability into question.
In the Clemson game, Newton executed a pump fake with which he went through an entire throwing motion to sell the pass. The fake took way too long and Auburn's coaches evidently addressed this because the next time Newton tried it, he didn't use the full follow-through.
That would be great news on the coachability front, but his new pump fake (used in the Kentucky contest) had significant flaws as well. Newton did a shoulder shrug to sell the upward body motion, but he still stepped forward and had to reset his feet to make the actual throw. That extra set of steps slowed the process nearly as much as the full throwing motion, and is almost certainly not what the Tigers coaches taught him to do.
There are also the numerous questions about Newton's leadership and possible mindset. Most of this revolves around his well-publicized off-field issues (e.g., the laptop, his father's supposed attempt to sell his services, the "entertainer and icon" verbal faux pas) but the real question is whether his ego can handle NFL-caliber hazing.
To put it another way, what will Newton's reaction be if his new teammates decide to give him the same kind of haircut the Denver Broncos gave Tebow last preseason? This type of thing is often done to potential prima donnas to bring them back down to earth, and Newton's sensitive reaction to tough questioning by teams at the NFL combine suggests he might not handle this well. If that is the case, it could fracture his leadership role on the team right off the bat.
Add the items listed above to the three question marks in the initial article and you have ten potentially significant issues for the team that drafts Newton.
Newton has a shot at being successful. He has the talent to get past just about all of the issues, and the personality questions can also be diminished by simply pointing to his young age. But this was a debate about whether he is a first-round pick. If he can't overcome these issues, Newton could really struggle. And NFL talent evaluators ignore this at their own risk.
KC Joyner, aka the Football Scientist, is a regular contributor to ESPN Insider. He also can be found on Twitter @kcjoynertfs and at his website. He is the author of "Blindsided: Why the Left Tackle is Overrated and Other Contrarian Football Thoughts."

 

I guess if you include Eli, there are two guys on that list who are successful to the degree I'd desire.

Taking out Tebow, since he hasn't had any time, that list still only hits 40% success rate.

And precludes taking guys like (only talking 1st rounders):

Stafford
Sanchez
Freeman
Ryan
Flacco
Rodgers
Roethlisberger
Palmer
Vick
Brees

Which list looks better?

edit: it really isn't which list is better, it's more that a bunch of talented guys are on that second list who would have been passed over.

 

The biggest problem with Parcells criteria is that 20 years ago, 10 years ago, major colleges were running more pro style offenses than now.

Florida coaches aren't going to spend a lot of time on either Tebow's or Cam's footwork and time under center. They are trying to win games with their system, not groom their QBs for the pros.

Tebow and Newton played their position in college as their coaches wanted, as directed, as they were recruited for. Urban Meyer didn't confuse Tebow with Dan Marino during recruitment. He got what he wanted.

Hell, he had a more pro styled QB in Leak and tried to make him a spread QB.