crazy mock draft

i'd say so. darieus has done it for years. much more consistent. and he's been a defensive MVP in more than one game. i like him a lot. not to mention he has infinitely fewer character questions than fairley...

 

definitely. Plus, he's got that bubble butt. Fairley's so thin in the waist, and that just doesn't bode as well when taking on two linemen. Fairley could become a rush specialist DT in a league that doesn't have the 10+ sack interior linemen anymore.

 

My problem with taking any QB is the learning curve. Any of them are going to struggle for a year or two. We are not the Steelers who carried Big Ben his first couple of years. I do think we have the talent to win again soon though. With all that said I want a veteran QB and to use our first pick on a guy who can make a big positive impact right away. A DT is that kind of player.

 

Sigh. I'm almost resigned to Carolina taking a QB.

It's been debated on here ad nauseum about the quarterbacks and how long it takes to develop one, and the top ones coming from a spread offense, and how each prospect carries flaw A and flaw B, etc.

But this is a weird draft. The CBA and lockout really change the atmosphere. The players have encouraged draftees to not show up at the podium to shake Goodell's hand, which isn't that big a deal. The CBA expiration and subsequent lockout, however, prevents teams from trading for anything other than draft picks and the Panthers can't negotiate with potential #1 draftees prior to the pick.

Which means that for the first time in a long time, the Panthers can select the player they want without consideration of trade potential or impact on the salary cap. And with the high probability that the lockout will wipe out a meaningful free agency period and the needed summer and fall training activities for drafted players, teams will rely less on draftees than ever before.

If the new labor deal gets done in September (my prediction), then I expect a lot of short-term free agent deals to be done quickly and drafted players sitting a lot next season. The established teams, teams like Pittsburgh and Green Bay, teams that have a strong background of drafting well and fiscal responsibility in free agency, will greatly benefit from the lack of a true off-season. Teams like the Panthers, however, will be behind the 8-ball from the get-go.

How much should Carolina count on their #1 pick next season?
How much weight should the team give to need in their selection?

Again, for the first time in a long time, the #1 selection won't have trade potential to include other team's players, won't have the possibility of a negotiated contract prior to the selection, will likely have a rookie cap slot once the new CBA is signed, and won't have an off-season to become an NFL player.

It's a general consensus that no player in this draft is worthy of a #1 overall pick. Considering that and the other factors mentioned above, why not take your quarterback, assuming that said player won't impact your franchise for three years or so?

 

Related: Philly would be morons for not dealing Kolb, assuming the CBA landscape allows for it. 2011 is a contract year, thus, would be Phi's best shot at getting compensated for his departure. They drafted Kafka in the middle rounds last year, whom Reid likes. Kolb's arm, quick release and high-character would play well for Rivera. It might cost Carolina a swap of 1st rounders, but does Philly need a dominant DT or CB to be enticed to deal with Carolina? Probably not. I have liked what I have seen from Kolb, and his age + price tag would likely be lower than either Palmer or McNabb. Still like McNabb for our offense best, but again, what's DC's incentive for releasing him prior to August, when DM is due his big roster bonus. Snyder, with a brain, strings the McNabb drama out all summer to leverage the best deal. Hell. Mallett fits, other than the fact that he sounds like an absolute meth-head.

 

Here is where I get hung up:

It's probable that there will be a shortened offseason this year, with perhaps no offseason workouts for incoming rookies. Training camps probably will be abbreviated as well, assuming they don't shitcan the entire season.

It's been stated that there will be a rookie wage scale, with first round picks having a max of 4-year contracts.

If the Panthers select any QB in the draft, that QB will be severely limited during 2011 and probably won't contribute at all. The 2012 offseason would be what his 2011 offseason should have been, and thus sitting out another season would put that QB with two seasons accumulated and only two under contract.

That gives you two seasons of on the field work of said QB to figure out if you want to sign him long term or not. Meanwhile, you've gotten no return on your #1 overall pick in at least two seasons, and you probably won't do very well in his first season starting. Keep in mind, if we're talking Gabbert or Newton, both would have to transition to a traditional offense, learn how to read defenses, learn to take snaps under center, etc.

Do the Panthers really want to go down that path?

 

They sure are acting like it.

I mean, I agree with your analysis. You would hate to see Newton or any of the top 3-4 QB prospects end up as franchise guys by 2013-2014, and not have chosen one. That said, it's a risk--always is.

Then again, the team has enough in the bank to draft Newton and sign a veteran to start.

 

I think the plan is to pick up a vet like Hasselbeck, Trent Edwards or Josh McCown and have Newton sit a couple of seasons and learn. I would be shocked if they don't end up somehow acquiring a veteran QB.

 

for some reason, the SportingNews War Room is free right now (maybe it was something to do with their big AOL deal).

Anyway, they have some good stuff in there, although I don't always agree with their rankings.

Interestingly enough, they have the Panthers taking Dareus with the first pick as of yesterday.

http://warroom.sportingnews.com/nfl/draft/2011/mockdraft/1.html