CORRECTION | Seeding scenarios

As division champions, the Panthers are assured of being one of the NFC's top four seeds.

CORRECTION

A chart in Monday's Observer omitted a scenario in which the Panthers could be the NFC's top seed even if Philadelphia won Monday. The Panthers' updated playoff scenarios:

NO. 1 SEED (HOME-FIELD ADVANTAGE AND A FIRST-ROUND BYE)

• Panthers win last two, Rams lose last two, Eagles lose last two and Cowboys lose at least once.

NO. 2 SEED (FIRST-ROUND BYE)

• Panthers win last two, Rams lose last two and Eagles win at least once.

• Panthers win last two, Rams lose last two, Eagles lose last two and Cowboys win last two.

NO. 4 SEED (HOST TOP WILD CARD)

• Panthers split last two, and Vikings win last two

• Panthers lose last two, and Vikings win at least once and/or Packers win last two

NO. 3 SEED (HOST BOTTOM WILD CARD)

• All other combinations
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NFC Playoff Standings

Team W-L Remaining Games
1. Philadelphia (East) 11-3 San Francisco, at Washington
2. St. Louis (West) 11-3 Cincinnati, at Detroit
3. Carolina (South) 9-5 Detroit, at N.Y. Giants
4. Green Bay (North) 8-6 at Oakland, Denver
5. Dallas 9-5 N.Y. Giants, at New Orleans
6. Minnesota 8-6 Kansas City, at Arizona
7. Seattle 8-6 Arizona, at San Francisco
8. New Orleans 7-7 at Jacksonville, Dallas
9. Tampa Bay 7-7 Atlanta, at Tennessee

 

Rams pulled one out their ass Sunday too. Seattle had a clear TD until the ref threw a body block knocking down Seattle's WR at the goal line.

Oh well, sucks we gave a couple up too. Philly is going to be damn hard to beat, but as long as they don't lose until we play them, I think that increases our chances of beating them.

 

Heheh. I mentioned it as the fourth and most unlikely scenario in my post Sunday night.

Here's a link to the original post:
http://www.thisboardrocks.com/forum/showthread.php?s=&threadid=51780

Here's the actual text of my post

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Four possible scenarios (all unlikely, IMO, unfortunately) can lead to Carolina getting a bye in the playoffs:

SCENARIO 1: Carolina beats the NFC East Division winner's final record (win/loss) and the NFC North Division winner's final record to earn a bye-week.

1. Carolina wins its remaining games
2. Dallas looses at least one of its remaining games
3. Philly looses all its remaining games

Note: if Carolina wins out its remaining games, then neither NFC North teams, Green Bay and Minnesota, can catch Carolina as they are both currently 8-6

SCENARIO 2: Carolina beats the NFC North Division winner's final record and wins a tie-breaker with the NFC West Division winner to earn a bye-week.

1. Carolina wins its remaining games
2. St. Louis looses its remaining games

Explanation: the tie-breaker would be best NFC record. If Carolina wins its remaining games, then they would have a 9-3 NFC record, while if St. Louis looses its remaining games, they would have a 8-4 NFC record.

SCENARIO 3: (HIGHLY, UNBELIEVABLY UNLIKELY) Carolina beats the final record of the NFC North Division winner and emerges from a three-way-tie with the NFC West and NFC East Division leaders to earn the NFC second seed spot (a bye-week spot)
1. Carolina wins its remaining games
2. St. Louis looses its remaing games
3. Dallas looses to either NY Giants OR the NO Saints
4. Philly looses to Miami AND either San Francisco OR Washington

Explanation: Carolina, St. Louis, and Philly would be 11-5. The tie-breaker would be best NFC record. Carolina and Philly would both have a 9-3 NFC record in this scenario. Then the tie-breaker between the two would be head-to-head. Philly would win to get the top seed, Carolina would get the second seed.

SCENARIO 4: (THE MOON JUST TURNED BLUE AND HELL JUST FROZE OVER UNLIKELY) Carolina beats the final record of the NFC North Division winner and emerges from a three-way-tie with the NFC West and NFC East Division leaders to earn the top NFC seed.
1. Carolina wins its remaining games
2. St. Louis looses its remaing games
3. Dallas looses to either NY Giants OR the NO Saints
4. Philly looses to San Francisco AND Washington

Explanation: Carolina would have a better NFC record than St. Louis (8-4) or Philly (8-4) and would get the top seed.

Note: It's just as likely, if not more so, that Carolina looses at least one of its remaining games, and then looses to one of the following in the 1st round of the playoffs: Dallas/Philly, Green Bay/Minnesota, or Seattle. Hell, even New Orleans and Tampa Bay can construct similar scenarios to the above to make a wild card game.

 

No. 1 not possible

However sweet a #1 seed for the Panthers may be, it is not possible this season.
Your scenero of Panthers win 2 Eagle lose 2 is not enough because that would make both teams 11/5. Since the Eagles have already beaten us, they win the tie-breaker.
Place our bets on #3 seed. Although the best we can hope for is a #2 seed and that is unlikely because the Rams finish the season with Detroit.

 

Actually, qitqat, it still is possible. The head-to-head victory is only applicable if, in a tie between three or more teams, only if one team has beat each of the others or if one team has lost to each of the others. Neither Carolina nor Philly have played St. Louis this year, so the head-to-head tie-breaker is not applicable.


For the details, I refer you to the official NFL.com page on tie-breaking proceedures:

http://www.nfl.com/standings/tiebreakers

First, scroll most of the way down the page until you see the heading, "OTHER TIE-BREAKING PROCEDURES."

Rule three under that section states: "To determine home-field priority among division titlists, apply Wild-Card tie breakers."

When you next look to the Wild-Card tie-breakers, you will notice that there are two sets of rules. The first is for a tie between two teams. The second is for a tie-breaker between three or more teams. Head-to-head is the second tie-breaker, but again, it is not applicable, because the rule here states that it is "Applicable only if one club has defeated each of the others or if one club has lost to each of the others." St. Louis has not played Carolina or Philly.

So the next tie-breaker, number three, is "Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference." This scenario is still possible IF St. Louis loses its last two, Philly loses its last two, and Dallas loses one of its last two. Admittedly, the odds are highly against this happening (like you said, St. Louis likely won't lose to Detroit) and that's why I titled Scenario Four, tongue in cheek, "THE MOON JUST TURNED BLUE AND HELL JUST FROZE OVER UNLIKELY."

 

I'll take your word for it dear

I really am not much on considering seed positions but Mark is rather obsessive about such things especially when it has to do with our Panthers! (he dictated my post...[see above] because he was looking for seeeding options and I found your post) And NO OFFENSE to you, I'll have him look at your post and go with what HE says. So far he hasn't steered me wrong. Look at me, I'm a Panther fan! And 10 years ago I had a hard enough time tolerating even HAVING football on MY TV! I've come a long way, baby!