Mel Kiper's Mock Draft

MOCK DRAFT: Kiper's initial first-round projection | Jan. 21
Editor's Note: ESPN.com draft guru Mel Kiper Jr. offers his initial first-round projection for the 2004 NFL draft.

It's Senior Bowl week, and the deadline for underclassmen to declare for the draft has passed, so it's time to make my initial first-round projection for the 2004 NFL draft. I currently see three skill-position players at the top of the draft, while underclassmen (*) account for 16 of the 32 picks. Here's my initial forecast:

1. San Diego Chargers: Eli Manning, QB, Ole MissDrew Brees has not proven himself as a player who will ultimately be a starter in the NFL, and while the Chargers also have needs at OT, WR, DT and LB, passing up a blue-chip quarterback like Manning is tough to do, especially considering they passed on Michael Vick a couple years ago.
Larry Fitzgerald has the hands and body control to make the tough catches. 2. Oakland Raiders: *Larry Fitzgerald, WR, PittsburghThe Raiders certainly could use a quarterback, with Rich Gannon getting up there in age, but Fitzgerald would be a good complement to the big, athletic Jerry Porter at wideout. There is also need at DL and S, but Fitzgerald has all the skills you look for in a receiver.
3. Arizona Cardinals: *Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Miami-OhioJosh McCown is an adequate QB, but Roethlisberger will give new coach Dennis Green a potential star. DL is also a need area, but no linemen are worthy of the No. 3 pick, so the Cardinals would do well to upgrade the most important position on the field.
4. New York Giants: Robert Gallery, OT, IowaGetting a player like Gallery -- the prototype left tackle -- would be a huge help to QB Kerry Collins, who was beaten up big-time this season. The Giants also need help along the DL and at S, but Gallery will step in immediately and fill a big hole.
5. Washington Redskins: *Kellen Winslow, TE, Miami-Fla.The TE position is always important in a Joe Gibbs offense, and Winslow will give the Redskins a multi-dimensional talent at that position, one that could be utilized creatively by Gibbs and his staff. DL and RB are also need positions in Washington, but it will be hard to pass up an athlete like Winslow at this spot.
6. Detroit Lions: *Sean Taylor, S, Miami-Fla.The Lions need to get the best impact player still on the board at either WR, RB, DE, CB or S, and Taylor looks to be that guy. Taylor is to the safety position at Miami what Ray Lewis was to the MLB spot and has tremendous toughness.
7. Atlanta Falcons: *Tommie Harris, DT, Oklahoma DT, OT, CB and WR are the need areas for the Falcons, and Harris wreaks havoc behind the line of scrimmage. He can cause problems for opposing QBs and was constantly triple-teamed in college.
8. Cleveland Browns: *Chris Gamble, CB, Ohio StateGamble might be a slight reach here, but his upside is tremendous, and he capped his college career with a terrific game in Ohio State's Fiesta Bowl win over Kansas State. A roll of the dice, but if he can be coached up and improve his cover skills Gamble could be an impact player down the road.
9. Jacksonville Jaguars: Roy Williams, WR, TexasThe Jags need a complement to Jimmy Smith at wideout, and a reliable No. 2 option would certainly help the development of QB Byron Leftwich. Jacksonville also has needs at CB and DE.
10. Houston Texans: *Kenechi Udeze, DE, USCA pass-rusher is the No. 1 need in Houston, and Udeze fits the mold. Originally a DT, Udeze has developed into a terrific strong-side DE and is ideally suited to the 3-4 scheme with his rush skills and ability to hold up against the run.
11. Pittsburgh Steelers: Dunta Robinson, CB, South CarolinaThe Steelers' secondary has been torched in recent years and Robinson is definitely worthy of a high pick. He is fundamentally sound and prepared to step in and become an immediate starter.
12. New York Jets: Jonathan Vilma, LB, Miami-Fla.New York definitely needs help at WR and CB, but Vilma would give the Jets speed, athleticism and instincts to boost their LB corps.
13. Buffalo Bills: Will Smith, DE, Ohio StateA perfect fit. Smith would be the best player available at this point in the first round and fill a big-time need for the Bills, who could also use help at CB or WR.
14. Chicago Bears: *Kevin Jones, RB, Virginia TechJones has size, breakaway speed and the ability to catch and block. He would be a good complement to Anthony Thomas, who is not quite the home run hitter Jones could be. The Bears might also look to upgrade at WR, DT or DB.
15. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: *Shawn Andrews, OT, ArkansasAndrews is a devastating run blocker who is also light on his feet and would upgrade the RT position dramatically for the Bucs. WR and TE are also areas of need in Tampa.
16. San Francisco 49ers: *Vince Wilfork, DT, Miami-Fla.With his ability to stuff the run and also explode upfield, Wilfork is in the mold of current NFL DT Keith Traylor. Wilfork would solidify a unit that had problems all season long.
17. Cincinnati Bengals: *Randy Starks, DT, MarylandCoach Marvin Lewis needs a big presence in the middle of the defensive front, and Starks is a guy who can make plays. He had 14½ tackles for loss last season and is very strong with great athletic ability. Starks is definitely a good fit and has tremendous potential.
18. New Orleans Saints: Will Poole, CB, USCThe Saints passed on Marcus Trufant last year and still need help in the secondary. Poole turned into a shutdown corner when he became a starter three games into the season and could turn into a special player.
19. Minnesota Vikings: D.J. Williams, OLB, Miami-Fla.Minnesota needs some athletic ability on the outside of its defense, and former FB Williams has that. He is not as instinctive as teammate Jonathan Vilma, but with his speed and overall physical ability, Williams would give the Vikings a solid presence at OLB.
20. Miami Dolphins: J.P. Losman, QB, TulaneWith Jay Fiedler and Brian Griese not looking like the long-term answer at QB, the Dolphins could upgrade here with Losman. He has a quick release, mobility and a strong arm. Losman got beat up at Tulane thanks to a terrible supporting cast but is ideally suited to an NFL offense.
21. New England Patriots (from Baltimore): *Steven Jackson, RB, Oregon StateThe Pats did not run the ball consistently this season and need a quality RB to take some pressure off Tom Brady and the short passing game. Jackson has size and can bounce it to the outside as well as being an excellent receiver out of the backfield.
22. Dallas Cowboys: Chris Perry, RB, MichiganTroy Hambrick does not look like the answer at RB, and Perry is the kind of all-around back Cowboys coach Bill Parcells likes. Perry is multi-talented, a good short-yardage runner, has hands out of the backfield and is a very good blocker. A complete back who can be on the field every down.
23. Seattle Seahawks: Dwan Edwards, DT, Oregon StateSeattle had problems stopping the run and getting pressure on the QB, so Edwards would be a big help. He played in the shadow of some more-heralded teammates but had a heck of a career and would be a significant upgrade.
24. Denver Broncos: Ben Troupe, TE, FloridaShannon Sharpe is near the end of the road and Troupe is a TE in the Sharpe mold. Troupe can run, catch and block and his combination of size and speed is impressive. The Broncos might also look for a WR or CB here.
25. Green Bay: *Antwan Odom, DE, AlabamaAlabama lost three starters on the DL before last season, yet Odom still managed to get eight sacks despite being the focus of opposing offenses up front. He has tremendous size and potential and would give the Packers a three-down DE who can play the run and the pass. Green Bay could also look for a QB or OLB.
26. St. Louis Rams: *DeAngelo Hall, CB, Virginia TechA multi-talented player, Hall has great recovery speed as a CB and could significantly upgrade the punt return game. OG and TE are also need positions for the Rams.
27. Tennessee Titans: Vernon Carey, OL, Miami-Fla.The Titans need a versatile lineman, and Carey played both guard and both tackle positions while at Miami. He would give the Titans some much-needed flexibility along the offensive front.
28. Kansas City Chiefs: Keith Smith, CB, McNeese StateThe Chiefs had all kinds of match-up problems in their playoff loss to the Colts. Smith had a great career at the Division I-AA level and looks ready to step up to the NFL level. Reminiscent of former McNeese and NFL CB Leonard Smith (no relation).
29. Philadelphia Eagles: *Reggie Williams, WR, WashingtonThe Eagles showed how badly they need a WR in their loss to the Panthers in the NFC championship game, and Williams is a big, fast target who would be an upgrade over any wideout currently on the roster.
30. Indianapolis Colts: Karlos Dansby, OLB, AuburnThe Colts need a complete OLB, and Dansby is just that. Speed and athleticism make blitzing off the edge his forte, and Dansby would give Indianapolis a good outside pass rusher and upgrade that area of the defense.
31. Carolina Panthers: *Michael Clayton, WR, LSUClayton has size and can make the difficult catch look easy. He showed his toughness by playing special teams and some at safety in college and would be a great bargain at this point in the first round. The Panthers also need LB help.
32. New England Patriots: Michael Jenkins, WR, Ohio StateThe Patriots have some undersized receivers in Deion Branch, Troy Brown and David Givens, and Jenkins would give them the big target they lack. He is a complete player who will block downfield and make unselfish plays.

 

A solid WR in the draft and a good CB in free agency makes clay a happy camper.

then fill in as needed - RG, RT, OLB - wherever we can get some value for cheap

 

So Mr. Who the hell is Mel Kiper is taking the Pats to win the Super Bowl.

 

They aren't picking us to lose, these Mock Dratfts are based off records and the PATS have the better record.

 

Clayton at that point in the draft would be golden. Hope he is right, but doubt Clayton makes it to us.

Oh and Reggie Williams at 29? :boune: