Passing Game Matchups v/s JAX

Us Covering Them

The Jags are 2nd in the league in rushing, so obviously a fair amount of their passing comes from playaction. They have almost as many rushing first downs as passing,

we're 28th covering the #1 WR, which is bizarre. #16 against the #2. I think this has had more to do with not being able to stop elite level guys like Andre Johnson than anything else. Jacksonville lacks a clear #1, though it appears that Dennis Northcutt is getting some additional focus. He has more yards, and as many receptions. Ernest Wilford is the other starter, and Reggie Williams gets about as many receptions (and leads the team with 6 TD). Each of the three fit into their respective niches, which isn't a terrible situation, though they're just not coming up with many yards.


We're 3rd in the league covering the 3rd WR - Wilford is 5th in the league in 3rd down completion per target. Interesting matchup with Marshall.
(FWIW, Wilford is a free agent after the year, and while he lacks speed and would essentially duplicate a fair amount of what we would have in Jarrett next year, we could do worse than add consistency to the passing game).

We're 13th covering backs, 17th against the TE; Marcedes Lewis is the threat, but only has 32 rec for 2 TD/328 yards. Jones-Drew has 27 rec, 260 yards, and almost all of his receptions are around the line of scrimmage, so he's either safety valve or screen most times. Wrightster, the blocking TE, has 17 receptions; Fred Taylor has only 7.


Only Jones-Drew lists on the top 40 in the NFL in yards after catch - and not high. The Jags are fairly high-percentage, and backs tend to be higher on that list, but they just don't give their players that much opportunity to play in space.


Both J-D's and Northcutt's receptions go up in the redzone. I think it's kinda clear that if MJD is in the game in the redzone, it's a pass. Not a rule, but certainly useful. I haven't seen a lot of Jacksonville this year, but I'd guess that Northcutt and Wilford both get the ball more in spread formations.

I like our matchups. Certainly, having three good corners never hurts, and I think we matchup better on the TE than in past years. Even Diggs has been less of a liability in coverage.
They don't give up a lot of sacks (27), and Garrard's high completion percentage (67) and low INT (1) are partly due to him being really, really safe, so I don't think we need to do anything out there other than be solid fundamentally and execute. Save the tricky stuff for the run.



also, Matt Jones has gone milk carton - 4 receptions since the middle of October.

 

Them Covering Us

Jacksonville's weak points are covering the RB (31st/league) and #1 WR, 21st. They're 27th passing D overall, so they're exploitable.

Reggie Hayward and MLB Mike Peterson are both out this game. Peterson's their 2nd leading tackler, Hayward's their sack leader (at only 4, they have 26 overall). With Peterson out, the remaining leading tacklers are the starting safeties and top 3 corners, in that order. With Heyward out, Bobby McCray starts. 2nd year Brent Hawkins (a whopping 6'2, 250) comes in as well. Stroud would be their highest sack threat left on the field.

Veteran Brian Williams is the corner most likely to be attacked by Smith. The SW Guilford and NCSU star has been solid for the Jags, but hasn't brought in the turnovers expected. Williams is somewhat physical, but is a solid contain corner when he has to back off, mostly because his lack of speed causes him to play more cautiously.

Rashean Mathis is struggling this year, and seems to have a significant statistical dropoff from last year's 8 int/12PD. With 1 int, 6 PD, and a dropoff in tackles, it's hard to say, but it's not a lack of targets. Mathis is a tall, athletic corner that made the Pro Bowl last year, but teams haven't been that afraid to throw at him.

Terry Cousin we know - shorter, slower, highly experienced but just a shorter-space nickel. He's a guy to pick on during 3rd downs if we're looking to go deeper. He's also gotten turned around on short misdirection routes, and if Drew Carter can be consistent, it might be fun to do spread a lot more. It wouldn't get Stroud off the field, or make running easy, but it would spread the Jags where they lack depth (LB, end, CB). Jacksonville's 19th at covering "other WR", or more namely the slot.

Reggie Nelson (4 int 9 PD) has played a solid centerfield for a rookie, but is still mistake prone. Sammy Knight has been solid in limited space, with 4 INT and 10PD, but lacks range. He's covered a fair amount of underneath and sideline, and when he's deeper, he's often supporting.





FWIW, Indy attacked with a fair amount of 2 TE, partly as a function of them trying to establish the run against JAX' 9th ranked rush D. Jacksonville's 9th covering the TE, but Indy's 10 TE receptions were as many as to WR.

I do like us in 2 TE, though the other TE is likely Fauria.
I also like us in I-form with the twins backside. Use the combo routes, and if you need another look, motion a back. The passing game won't be the stress, just as with the other side of the ball; on offense we need to use the passing game success to setup some more running, and we need to test the edges more this game. With their lack of rush, I don't know how successful the screen game would be, but we did well there last week with some variations and given that their rush will all be coming up the middle, I think it could work this week. Watch the batted balls, and Vinny can't force balls in there.

 

TLDR
Limit mistakes and execute.

 

next time I'll do it in coloring book form and you can learn your own way

 

Tony Pashos, Jac's starting RT, was the same guy that Peppers handled in Baltimore last year. FWIW.

 

Having Peterson and Heyward out will help us. I'm hoping our interior line doesn't get completely destroyed by Henderson and Stroud.
They are a team that has invested pretty heavily in the passing game, but just haven't seen dividends. Matt Jones was a complete reach and Reggie Williams for all his tools hasn't developed too much either. I'm more scared of Fredy Taylor running wild through our defense.

 

Thanks for the thoughts. I actually think we match-up decently.

 

I'm not so hopeful for our trench matchups. Peterson being out helps us, and Smith/Ingram don't scare me, but the front four does, and we've had trouble with DTs all year. Their OL, especially with Manuwai banged up, isn't as physical as I'd figure, but we've had some inconsistency and they've shown that you only need one slip up to break it open.

 

They put Wrightster and their third TE on IR, called up a guy from the practice squad. Maybe their run blocking will suffer a little.

 

For once, I agree with you. Hell, I even feel fairly good about how our defense matches up with their running game. Something tells me that Beason is ready for it.

BTW...thanks Mangus...you obviously put some time and effort into that analysis...nice job man. Too bad we can't get the same kind of effort out of the Panthers beat writers.