Disect

Carolina better with Foster

By KC Joyner
ESPN Insider

The Super Bowl hopes of the Carolina Panthers may very well rest on their running game. The Panthers averaged a meager 3.4 yards per rushing attempt last season, tied for 31st in the league. The number was surprisingly low given that Carolina's offensive linemen had zero missed starts.

So why did the Panthers rushing attack struggle last year? A closer look at the metrics shows that Stephen Davis was actually the primary culprit for the lack of productivity.

Davis started the 2005 season as the lead runner after recovering from microfracture leg surgery. The Panthers didn't ask him to carry the load by himself, as DeShaun Foster spelled him for eight to 10 carries a game. As the season wore on, Davis started to be slowed by injuries. Foster kept getting more and more carries until Davis finally had to be put on IR. Davis and Foster ended the year with a similar number of carries (Davis 180, Foster 205), but Foster gained 330 more yards.

It wasn't just that Foster was more successful than Davis. One of the metrics I track for running backs is the number of yards gained on each of the seven major run types. These metrics show how Davis was actually hurting the Carolina running game last year. Take a look at the yards per attempt numbers for both Davis and Foster in each category:

Deshaun Foster

Run type / Runs / Yds / Yds/Att
Counter / 49 / 206 / 4.2
Dive / 18 / 35 / 1.9
Draw / 23 / 107 / 4.7
Isolation / 24 / 114 / 4.8
Off tackle / 28 / 106 / 3.8
Slant / 12 / 68 / 5.7
Sweep / 23 / 76 / 3.3

Stephen Davis

Run type / Runs / Yds / Yds/Att
Counter / 33 / 88 / 2.7
Dive / 33 / 67 / 2.0
Draw / 6 / 5 / 0.8
Isolation / 18 / 70 / 3.9
Off tackle / 33 / 106 / 3.2
Slant / 2 / 4 / 2.0
Sweep / 28 / 131 / 4.7

They ran behind the same blockers and had a fairly similar run distribution, but Foster gained more yards per attempt in five out of the seven run types, and the difference in some cases was significant. The only run type in which Davis ranked significantly better was the sweep, partly because it was the only run type Foster did not do well.

This is not meant to knock Davis' comeback efforts last year. Davis fought back valiantly from what could have been a career-ending injury, but he did slow down the Panthers' rushing attack.

How do things bode for the Panthers this season? The metrics show they could be primed for an excellent year. Three of Carolina's returning starting offensive linemen topped the 80 percent run-blocking success mark last year -- the benchmark of a good run-blocker -- and that group didn't include Mike Wahle.

One of Wahle's primary responsibilities in this offense is to be the pulling guard on the counter play, and his relatively low success percentage may have been caused by Davis' inability to run that play well. Foster is much better at running the counter so that problem should be solved.

The Panthers also have two very good run-blocking tight ends in Kris Mangum and Michael Gaines. Both ranked in the top 11 in run-blocking success percentage in 2005. Throw in fullback Brad Hoover (88 percent) and it becomes clear the Panthers have a collection of earthmovers who can lead a dominating rushing attack.

If DeAngelo Williams can contribute 100-plus carries and keep Foster fresh, there is every reason to believe Carolina's running game could rank in the top 10 in the NFL this year.

KC Joyner, aka The Football Scientist, is a regular contributor to ESPN Insider. His latest book, Scientific Football 2006, is available for preorder at his Web site, http://thefootballscientist.com.

 

Though the average was probably brought down b/c many were from the opponant's one or so, 3rd and very short, or were called to get position for a Kasay kick... we suck at dive plays.

 

Do draws count? We know Carolina loves to run the draw on 3 and 20+...

 

draws aren't differentiated from other running plays. That's one potentially (or assumedly) boosting way of Foster having high ypc on inside runs without him necessarily being a good inside runner.

 

The article is particularly interesting because Joyner insists in his book that Hartwig is a downgrade from Mitchell and that Reyes was a better blocker last year than Wahle.

 

Just last week when we were backed up he got a chunk of yards on a 3rd and long draw we ran to get some kicking room.

But I think he'll prove to be a better inside runner than people give him credit for.

 

He's a 'tard because this came from the NFL Preview in SI from other teams' scouts:

• Big upgrade at center, and Carolina needed it. Jeff Mitchell got pushed around last year, so the arrival of Justin Hartwig, a 310-pound drive-blocker from the Titans, is good for the running game.

 

Deshaun Foster

Run type / Runs / Yds / Yds/Att
Counter / 49 / 206 / 4.2
Dive / 18 / 35 / 1.9
Draw / 23 / 107 / 4.7
Isolation / 24 / 114 / 4.8
Off tackle / 28 / 106 / 3.8
Slant / 12 / 68 / 5.7
Sweep / 23 / 76 / 3.3

Stephen Davis

Run type / Runs / Yds / Yds/Att
Counter / 33 / 88 / 2.7
Dive / 33 / 67 / 2.0
Draw / 6 / 5 / 0.8
Isolation / 18 / 70 / 3.9
Off tackle / 33 / 106 / 3.2
Slant / 2 / 4 / 2.0
Sweep / 28 / 131 / 4.7

 

Foster was a third down back and more likely to get the call for a draw in a long yardage situation than Davis. Linebackers are playing back and don't care if you get 5-10 if you need 20. Look's like Daivs only have 6 all season anyway. Like I said, looks like the draw plays help artifically inflate Foster's inside running numbers.

 

if your argument is that Davis was better inside, take a look at the sweep numbers. Did they artificially inflate Davis' outside running numbers? Stats can be manipulated however you want, the fact remains that Davis got stuffed on 3rd and short quite a bit, even early in the season. Even gaining 4.7 per carry on sweeps which was around 1/4 of his total yardage, his YPC was still well under 4. Throw out the draws for Foster if it makes you feel better, he still did better in the same situations.