Tiebreakers

Sorry if this has been discussed, but:

Carolina wins their next two.

Tampa drops their next two.

Atlanta splits their next two.

Panthers win the NFC South

 

Sarcastic comment about how it seems like Favre hasn't really played since the second half against us. Since then some douchebag has been wearing his jersey, but that ain't him.


strat:
I think ATL definitely beats Chicago, but only because the Falcons usually do a good job of avoiding turnovers. When they're not trailing by much, they don't pass much, which means no interceptions for the Bears to return for touchdowns or to set up scores by their pathetic offense. And given that Chicago has absolutely no passing game, even Atlanta's bad run defense should be able to stock the box and not let them drive all the way down the field.

 

Chicago will drop another game. Pittsburgh probably beats them since they are going to really need win after losing to the Bungals. If we run the table we get a first round bye.

It is no big deal for us to go to Seattle and win. I would not want to have to go to Chicago in January though.....

 

OK - gotcha.

Still, would you want to bet against Brett pulling something magical out of his ass for his last game? I wouldn't. In fact, I wish I could buy stock in it.

 

CORRECTION.....

We don't need Tampa to lose to New England. They can win that game. So....here's the updated scenario:

Carolina wins their next two.

Tampa loses to Carolina.

Atlanta splits their next two.

Panthers win the NFC South

 

http://www.nfl.com/standings/conference

 

just thinking, if it came down to it, that meaningless TD by Proehel at the end of the game could help in a tiebreaker....if they got to division points scored/points allowed

 

So am I reading this right, and if New England beats the Bucs, that helps us in a TB tiebreaker?

 

It helps us in the loss column. Probably won't go past division games if we are tied. Most of this thread was posted before we got beat by the Bucs.

 

It helps us if we win out because a tie-breaker is not needed. Goodoleboy is right, it only helps if we have an equal division record with Tampa, only then would common games be considered. But even then it won't help us. See below.

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Right now Tampa Bay has a 3-1 division record, while we have a 2-2 division record (man, that loss Sunday is really costing us). For us to have a chance for the division title, one of the following needs to happen:

1) We win all remaining games, Tampa loses one.

2) We beat both New Orleans and Atlanta, lose to Dallas, and Tampa Bay loses to either to New Orleans or Atlanta. Then the third tie-breaker, common games would be used. That would be, in addition to the divisional games, the NFC North and the AFC East games. I won't calculate the division games, since this scenario assumes the divisional records are tied. Our record vs those teams is 6-2. Tampa Bay's is, wow, 5-2. So really we need them to lose to either New Orleans or Atlanta and also lose to New England. Doh! Scratch that. if we beat both N.O. and Atlanta we will be at least 11-5, and if they lose to both New England and N.O. or Atlanta, they will do no better than 10-6. So there's no way we win on the 3rd tiebreaker. The only way to get to the third tiebreaker leads to a tie on the third tiebreaker.


3)..er...2) We beat both New Orleans and Atlanta, lose to Dallas, and Tampa Bay loses to either N.O. or Atlanta. We go to the 4th tiebreaker, NFC record. This tie-breaker won't work either because we will be tied at 8-4. We go to the fifth tiebreaker, strength of victory. I'm assuming that means the point differential in each win/loss. If so, Carolina comes out at 96, while Tampa Bay comes out at 37. We take the division.


NOTE: If we lose to either New Orleans or Atlanta, then we either have to have a final record better than Tampa Bay, or Tampa Bay must lose to both of them for us to win the division.