K C Joyner Thinks Cam Is

There’s no doubt that the hype machine is running hardcore for Newton, as it is for any QB that has a good rookie season or even just a good season. But for a supposed statistician like Joyner to use words like “overrated” would suggest that he would have a lot more backing for that statement.


And that’s without going into the obvious run threat, which both aided him (another constraint on the defense) and hurt him (it’s not unrealistic to add some passing TDs without his running threat). I don’t know that, with the run and defense form of team this is trending toward, that there will ever be massively high totals in TDs, but if they do come, it’ll be a high amount of chucks from between the 40s.

It is, of course, remarkably interesting to see so many people who felt Newton wasn’t ready at all (I was one, through game 1) and watched him run through what’s largely considered the best season/one of the better seasons for a rookie QB in so many different categories. So many are giving a begrudging “obviously he did well enough” and yet expect more, when this time last year were willing to argue he shouldn’t play. It seems like either the guy exceeded expectations because you thought he was going to be a bit of a disaster (even when I turned toward him because of work ethic and leadership, I never expected this 2011 season from him), or you had expectations he was going to be phenomenal already and now feel like he only met some criteria acceptably. I’m still struggling to figure out how the extremes (“he’s going to be garbage”, “he was okay but clearly he should've been much better”) seem tied together.

 

I think the prevailing argument for the “he was okay but clearly he should've been much better” crowd is sample size. They all expect some sort of regression, evidenced by his underwhelming passing totals in the second half of last season. If you assume he gets no better than he was last year, the rest of the league should catch up to him and, eventually, reduce him to Vince Young-type production. Again, I think that's what they're thinking. And its weak sauce, at best.

On the other hand, if he were to get better and improve himself in the offseason, along with the rest of the offense...there's really no telling what numbers the offense could put up.

 

It's worth noting that Derek Anderson's big numbers in 2007 came from constantly chucking the ball deep to a Pro Bowl wideout. Defenses will adjust to what Chud did, so Cam needs to be a lot better at intermediate routes in 2012 and beyond since he was pretty terrible at those as a rookie. Cam wasn't the best in the league at deep passes by accident, as that was his strength in college as well, but he probably won't be as successful at them now that defenses expect it.

 

Cam must progress but the key here is how does the rest of the offense react. If the run game returns to form and some of the role players like Tolbert step up in the short and intermediate pass game watch out. If Cam and Chud are on the same page and Cams reads and decision making improve it would be quite a chore to contain this offense. This kid has HOF talent, i think alot of experts are selling him way short. It is up to him, the way he works and carries himself whether he gets there. Hes not VY, Vick, Russell etc.. If he puts in the work he will be great.