Shadow Free Agency

In the nerd world of fantasy sports there are these things called "shadow drafts" where you take something like the experts' Tout Wars leagues and try to create the best roster by cherry-picking the signings you like best, but you have to add a dollar amount to what each player went for in order to account for putting this together in hindsight. I thought it would be worthwhile exercise for 2011 NFL free agency as well, and to account for Carolina being a less desirable destination due to being horrible, I think it's more than fair to add 20% to the amount of the contracts signed.

One article I found said that the Panthers had $47.2 million in cap room at the start of free agency, so we'll use that as a base. Instead of trying to figure out what every free agent will count for in each particular season, I think the easiest thing will simply be to take the average annual value of the contract signed and then multiply by 20%. (I used this site to get players and contracts: http://walterfootball.com/freeagents2011recap.php ) To give an example, here is what the Panthers could have done in free agency if their general manager wasn't a retard:


FA Losses:
Charles Johnson, DeAngelo Williams, Matt Moore, Jeff King, Donte Rosario, Ed Johnson, Nick Hayden, Jamar Williams, and Richard Marshall

FA Additions:
FB Vonta Leach - $4.4 million per season
The home town guy might have signed for less than that, who knows. Chudzinski's offense doesn't usually involve a lot of the fullback, but ever since Howard Griffith left I've always wanted another pounding lead blocker at that position.

TE - Kevin Boss - $4.8 million per season
Olsen and Shockey are nice for the passing game, but I still have no idea what the Panthers are going to do when they want to run the ball, since both are crap at blocking. Boss is above average as a run blocker, while also being a solid contributor as a receiver. Matt Spaeth and Todd Heap were also worth consideration, but their contract terms have not been released.

RT - Ryan Harris - $3 million for one season
Ok, the terms of Harris' contract have not been released, but I have a hard time believing it would be any more than a couple million given his injury history, so I'm going to cheat and give him this number. He's a quality player when on the field, though, and you could kick Otah inside to be the kind of mauler the team has missed since Jeno James. Between the two of them, hopefully one would be healthy for all sixteen games.

WR - Braylon Edwards - $1.2 million for one season
I would not have imagined adding him until he signed that contract with San Francisco. He was actually pretty good when he played last season, and he has shown the ability to be a good run blocker when his mind is focused. When you're 2-14, I don't think you can worry too much about off-field issues. James Jones is the guy I had slotted for this spot originally, while Malcolm Floyd came cheaply as well.

DT Brandon Mebane - $6 million per season
Mebane is not only young and talented, but is just about ideal as a 4-3 tackle who is already great at holding up against the run, but is also active as a pass rusher even though he doesn't actually get to the quarterback that often. I would have liked to add Aubrayo Franklin as well, but what the Saints paid for him on a one year deal has not yet been released.

DE Ray Edwards - $7.2 million per season
Some discount him because he played opposite Jared Allen, but rushing the passer from the strong side end is not easy regardless of who is on the other side. Edwards has never been elite, but has been consistently productive over the last four seasons. Moving him over to RDE would make for an imposing run front, while hopefully giving him more opportunities to reach the quarterback.

DE Cullen Jenkins - $6 million per season
This is one I'm not really crazy about, but I strongly believe in the importance of the defensive line and there just wasn't a lot out there to choose from. If I knew the terms of Kiwanuka's deal, I probably would have preferred signing him for RDE and playing Edwards on the left side. Philadelphia is apparently going to use Jenkins at DT, but I think he's best suited for LDE.

LB James Anderson - $4.4 million per season
Not adding the 20% here since he obviously did sign with Carolina, and it's the one Panthers contract I liked. He may have different responsibilities in Rivera's scheme, but he showed himself to be an active player who operates well in traffic. That's harder to find than a good weakside linebacker.

CB Josh Wilson - $5.4 million per season
One of the more inexplicable contracts of this off-season, as Wilson played great for Baltimore in 2010. Frankly I don't know why Seattle traded him in the first place. I would have added Carlos Rogers as well, but the terms have not yet been disclosed on his one year deal with the 49ers.


That leaves $4.8 million to sign some depth, not counting any money freed up from signing Kalil to an extension. I did not give Hurney's extensions to Thomas Davis or Beason, because TD's was insane and Beason can wait. The one good news that came out of this exercise is that it made me realize Jacksonville was almost as stupid as the Panthers in the way they threw money around. I like Posluszny, but not at that price, while the Lewis and Session contracts were ridiculous.


Projected Lineup:

QB - Cam Newton
RB - Jonathan Stewart
RB - Mike Goodson
FB - Vonta Leach
TE - Jeremy Shockey
TE - Kevin Boss
LT - Jordan Gross
LG - Travelle Wharton
C - Ryan Kalil
RG - Jeff Otah
RT - Ryan Harris
SE - Steve Smith
FL - Braylon Edwards
SL - David Gettis

LDE - Cullen Jenkins
LDT - Brandon Mebane
RDT - Terrell McClain
RDE - Ray Edwards
SLB - James Anderson
MLB - Jon Beason
WLB - Thomas Davis
SCB - Chris Gamble
WCB - Josh Wilson
NCB - Captain Munnerlyn
SS - Charles Godfrey
FS - Sherrod Martin

K - John Kasay
P - Jason Baker

 

How much did you add to the contract cost to get these guys to agree to come to the worst team in the league? With two offers being equal how many would choose Carolina and a rookie QB?

 

DOh! Sorry. Reading is fundamental...

I read "Instead of trying to figure out what every free agent will count for in each particular season, I think the easiest thing will simply be to take the average annual value of the contract signed and then multiply by 20%." and somehow missed your caveat

 

Did you keep Thomas Davis or not?

 

Check the line-up. Davis' contract rolled over to this year because of his PUP status throughout last year.

 

Interesting. Completely re-done lineup. But an interesting view at what a line-up without big spending would look like.

 

This exercise really made me start worrying about the team's lack of a legitimate blocker at tight end.

 

Could of, would of should ofs. Lets move on

 

A lot of teams have tight ends who very rarely catch the ball but are good blockers. Since playing a TE like that pretty much tips your hand that it is a running play why don't more teams just use a back up tackle as a TE?