Newton and the playbook

NFP thinks our offense is too complicated for a rookie.

http://www.nationalfootballpost.com/NFP-Sunday-Blitz-9962.html


and then I disagree.

http://absolutepanthers.blogspot.com/2011/04/nfp-might-have-wrong-idea.html

 

I only want the Panthers' QB to know three plays:

The running play, the forward pass and the non-interception play

But seriously, Magnus, I agree. Offenses are built around culture and language, not necessarily on a dizzying array of available options. Rookie quarterbacks are more challenged with reading a defense and "visualizing" a play in all its dimensions as it develops, rather that thinking of whom he will hand the football or throw it to.

The players that excel in this right out of the gate are the ones that can literally see the entire field and/or have an innate ability to operate in space. Some young QB's, like Drew Brees for instance, require a few seasons to learn how to attack a passing lane, or how much vertical "touch" it takes to get between linebackers and safeties. That's technique, not competency with the playbook.

I charge that Matt Moore suffered from the same learning curve that Brees did in San Diego. Moore had nearly three years to learn the playbook and it did him little good when the bullets started flying and defenses challenged him early in the season. Same type of thing happens with rookie pitchers in baseball. Once opponents get tape, they're smart enough to devise a remedy. I'm convinced Moore would have fought through the adversity and Clausen would never have seen the field had Moore not gotten hurt.

So here we are, then, with the possibility of Cam Newton. Newton is tall enough to see the entire field (debatable whether he does, though), nimble enough to find space, and has shown (to me) enough touch to get the football into the soft spots in a zone defense. Newton has the tools to overcome the natural deficiencies all rookie QB's face. He's raw and unrefined, but even the greatest tacticians struggle.

Knowing the playbook will certainly help - because without that knowledge he'll always be trying to translate the culture and language he already knows to the one he's trying to learn.

Consuming the playbook, however, is another matter. This requires immersion in the new language and the opportunity to take it to the streets. OTA's, summer sessions, training camp and preseason all help a new QB to dive into the new culture and language. It's expected that he'll flounder for a while.

And in the case of Moore, he floundered when defenses changed the scenery. That'll be the second line of learning for the new QB.

Being able to learn the Panthers' super-complicated playbook...I think that Newton is smart enough. If Terry Bradshaw can do it, then so can Cam Newton. Or at least the language can be simplified to meet the capacity of the learner. Some OC's are too wordy anyway, in my opinion. Scaling back War and Peace is a good thing.

My questions for Newton will be for the days when the margin of error is narrowed, and the cost of not having proper technique will be high.

Such as:

How effective will he be when defenses learn to cut off a portion of the field from him?

How will he adjust when one of his receivers is playing injured?

How will he handle losing?

 

Please do not compare QB to pitching because they have NOTHING in common. Actually, hitters are the ones who have to adjust to pitchers, which is why rookie hitters have a much harder time in the bigs than rookie pitchers do. Meanwhile quarterbacks have to react to what the defense is doing, which is why rookies have such enormous trouble there. If you're going to play a quarterback who hasn't been in the league for at least two full years, then the OC needs to have a very pared down read tree, possibly even to the point that it's one-read and dump down where the primary is set up by the formation, motion, or whatever else the offense can do to give the best chance for one particular route to open up.

Again, the issue with young QBs isn't knowing the playbook. That's all memorization shit that anyone who isn't a total moron can do without too much problem (although you will have plays from time to time where an uncommon call causes some confusion). The problem is in understanding how the defensive coverage and the defensive personnel will affect the offensive progression, which is something a veteran will be much better at grasping. The vet is anticipating, whereas the rook is reacting.

 

Quarterback is a very cerebral position. The only physical thing to evaluate in my opinion is does he have the arm to make enough throws to be successful and does he have the height to see down field. Beyond that I think the intangibles are very important. I think that is why it is so hard to judge a QB out of college. Guys like Kurt Warner get over looked and end up having hall of fame careers. Guys like Jamarcus Russell are number one overall picks and are not worthy to be a third stringer.

I can't judge it. I thought Matt Lienart would would be good.

 

Jesus Christ, no. There is a lot that physically goes into the quarterback position, otherwise Major Applewhite would be playing instead of coaching. Moreover, height isn't even that important. It annoys the shit out of me whenever analysts like QB X because he's 6'5" and pan QB Y because he's 6'1". That shit doesn't matter. There's no statistical correlation between QB rating and height. Granted, you wouldn't have a lot of success at 5'5", but OL and DL are going to be taller than pretty much any quarterback, so no one is going to be seeing over them. Actually, this touches on something I think very few fans understand. We just don't get what it's like to stand behind moving walls of human flesh with gaps of space between them because we watch the games from an unobstructed view. All quarterbacks have to react to what they can see downfield through the open spaces between blockers, which means you need the ability to almost instantly process incomplete information within a ridiculously chaotic environment. If quarterbacks could magically see the field the way that we do on television, then anyone could figure out who to pass to. The reason that even Tom Brady sometimes doesn't throw to the open man is because every quarterback's field of vision is limited unless they're outside the pocket.

Actually QB is one of the easiest positions to judge, most teams just do it stupidly. In my opinion, WR is much, much harder because it's such a different style of play in the NFL than in college, so you have to guess how someone will adjust to that.

Eh, he still might be. He was actually pretty solid for a rookie back in '06, then never really got another prolonged chance because no young, inexperienced quarterback is going to look better than Kurt Warner. It's too bad that Whisenhunt pissed on that relationship because it would have been interesting to see how Leinart played for Arizona last season. That was an idiotic move because it's clear he would have been better than Derek Anderson and Max Hall.

 

I'm less worried about Cam Newton's brain and more worried about his attitude and character. I know it's no shocker for college athletes to barely qualify scholastically and need “help”, and for a certain amount of unethical issues to be swept under the rug. Happens all the time and it always will. Apparently all through his college education Cam was one of those guys, and widely known as shady. Signing his name to another students paper, buying papers off the internet and from other students. Rumors at Auburn were that he got away with cheat sheets all the time. If even some of that stuff is true is he a guy that's going to make studying and actually learning your complex scheme his top priority? Most serious NFL QB hopefuls are scholastic types and dedicated learners because they have to be to succeed in the NFL. Cam just has not proven to be serious in that way so far. He has gotten away with being catered to and that is in part the fault of those in charge who care more about winning (and their jobs) than one kids ethical development. If not for Chizik and Malzahn Newton could have only run a very limited number of plays on his own cognition and if you would suggest that Newton just do that as a pro, we all know what happens when you are too simplistic and predictable in the NFL. The Auburn staff was apparently having such a hard time getting him to learn what they were initially trying to that they had to come up with a system just for Cam. Could the panther staff get buddy-buddy with Auburn coaches and implement a Flashcard Offense for Newton until he grows up and gets serious enough to learn a big-boy offense? I'm not saying Newton is a moron like some here have unfairly suggested. However, there is definitely something missing and I would guess it's his maturity, dedication, and ethics that are below average.Those things just don't suddenly appear overnight, and I agree that Newton is far to big a risk for a team that needs much closer to a "sure thing" pick.

 

Even if we don't select Newton (or Gabbert for that matter) we're gonna have to dumb down the playbook this year due to the lockout.

 

How do you think a QB should be evaluated? A lot of NFL teams get it wrong. No one drafts a QB, especially early in the draft, if they think he will fail. Also, how do you account for so many guys over the years who fell through the cracks and went undrafted only to end up having solid NFL careers? I am not saying you are right or wrong I am just curious as to what your logic is.

 

#1 most important thing by far is the ability to quickly process information and then act on it. #2 on the list is accuracy, as you need to be able to put the ball in the right spot in order to do anything with the information you gleaned from #1. The reason I put awareness above accuracy is that I place a lot of value on avoiding stupid mistakes, so I want a guy who knows where not to throw it before anything else. What you were missing on the physical side is that a QB has to possess the agility to move around the pocket and then make sound throws from a number of positions and angles. If you have the world's greatest offensive line and can just drop back to the same spot on every snap, awesome, but in the real world you're going to need the ability to move laterally in the pocket while maintaining a throwing position. Then I'd also put touch into that physical side, at least partially. For instance, Michael Vick's throwing motion has a lot of wrist action, which makes it difficult for him to moderate the velocity with which he passes the ball. That's a physical hindrance.

 

That makes sense but while you can measure accuracy it is harder to measure a guys ability to quickly process information. I do not get the idea though that Newton is a guy who can do that.