First Pick in the Draft

You guys keep saying it is "risky" but you never say exactly why. The only thing Mags comes up with is a projected value which reminds me of investment bankers selling AAA rated tranches. Value is what is paid, not what is projected. Randian conservatives should not forget this.

If you are the Lions, and you are determined not to pay a #1 salary, then fuck it... Draft the ~#15 guy, pay him #8 money, and then pick #1 in the 2nd round. There is not a damn thing agents or the NFLPA can do about it. The Lions get two damn good players. It is very very very very very very simple.

 

yeah it is, you fucking idiot. I'm going to berate you because my argument is poor but I'm emotionally invested in this idea.

But so anyway, yes, it's risky to both player and agent. Not to mention, if you're looking for top 5 money out of a guy you're going to pick #1, you might get lucky and get a guy dumb enough to do this - then his agent will be a complete failure, but you got it done. Tell a player point blank that he won't really go top 5, he's really top 15, but you're here to help him out so he'll get a cherry deal from you? He'll laugh in your face and hate your franchise for his lifetime. Then you're stuck where you were. (but wait! you just have to find the right player! He'll be the face of your franchise and the most important pick you'll make in decades but why have that be a top rated player, when you can be both fiscally "smart" and get terrible value at the same time?)

Letting time fall off the clock and taking what's left at #4 is at least hoping that you can pay #4 money for a #4 guy. Not less risky, but you're paying for what you got, instead of overpaying a guy you just admitted wasn't worth what you put into him.

 

The 33 pick has nothing at all to do with this.

Value? picking a player that's not rated in the top five, essentially ceding the #1 pick overall for nothing in return? Yes, that's losing value.

And yes. Risky. The draft isn't a guarantee of a good player anyway - screwing him and screwing his agent, while taking away from what you actually got as well (a lesser player), doesn't make it less risky. And putting #1 overall expectations on a player who isn't rated top ten won't make the pressure on that deal any less critical.

 

Dude, you completely lack any form of imagination or business hubris. Remind to slap myself if at some point in the future we decide to go into business together as venture capitalists.

The "value" you get in mid 1st round is significantly greater based on price versus anything you get in the top 10 historically when there is no consensus #1. Deny it all you want, but what I just said is absolutely factually correct.

Fuck your idea of "screwing" and fuck your idea of expectations. What is this, a yacht club with a bunch of old rich Jews sitting around with their polyester pants pulled up to their nipples? This is football. And to win, you must manage your cap. I am not bound to that idea of what is "owed" to someone like you are, especially a freakin agent.

You pay the guy expecting less MORE. He wins. You win. And if he is a bust, so fucking what? You certainly didn't pay him as a #1 and it covers your ass to a significant dollar amount.

 

This doesn't come down to it being some character flaw of mine that I think this is high rick for limited reward. Building a football team, much less rebuilding one of the shittiest teams ever, is more important than doing something "interesting". Remember, Ricky Williams' trade and contract were both "interesting". That didn't make them good.

glad to see you have the right idea about drafting. What does it matter what the player does? The important thing is you got a bargain on that lemon.


This is no better than people who have these elaborate mock drafts where we trade down two spots, trade Jason Carter, and suddenly we have forty picks in the top 90. Just like those trades, you have to have a partner to make this convoluted process happen - you have to convince a player who's universally determined not to be the best at his position to take a deal that'll force him into the spotlight for terrible reasons, put his agent at odds with the industry, and put overwhelming scrutiny on everything the player does, for no reasons other than cheapness. So that you can get, what, a top 20 player for top eight money and admit you willfully screwed away a top pick and overpaid a player.

 

I am not interested in anything "interesting" or any other component that deals with colleagues perceptions of what I just did. What I just did was draft a starter and saved millions of dollars. If I am the Lions, I don't give a flying frijole what you or any beat writer or any agent thinks about it.

The #15 is a lemon? Then why is he projected at #15? Keep reaching, maybe one day you will attain something other than mediocrity.

Everything you just said is invalidated by two words...Jimmy Johnson.

 

Agreesome.

 

IF you find a player (and an agent, more importantly) to accept #7 money for being picked #1.

Maybe a player would, but I seriously doubt an agent would. To take anything less than #1 pick money for his client would ruin his future business.

 

I'm responding to you saying "if he's a bust, so what?"
So, #15 is a bust because you said he was a bust. Otherwise I had no intention of stating that the player would definitely be a bust.

Johnson had one blockbuster trade because the Vikings were stupid enough to give up the house. No one does that now. You need to find a partner - you don't just say "Jason Carter for a third round pick" and suddenly a 3 appears.

Which everyone's telling you, that you have to have someone to do this. And yes, an agent has to be involved.

 

So which mid-1st prospect should the lions take?

I'd build around Andre smith