Cedric Benson

LJ has produced a whole lot more than Benson. Certainly some of that is due to KC having had such a good OL but I do not think you can simply attribute it all to that. Even if LJ and Benson have similar measurables there are other things that you can not easily measure that are important to a running back like his vision and ability to pick the right hole.

 

He was never an elite back unless you think Priest Holmes suddenly became an elite back when he went to KC, and the talent difference was far more than moderate. You're talking about going from the best run blocking offensive line in history, one that included multiple future Hall of Famers, to one that is starting Damion McIntosh and Kyle Turley. That's beyond huge.

No doubt he should have a better ypc, but he looked good in limited action the prior two seasons, so I would expect him to pick up the pace.

No, he isn't fast, but he's not '03 Stephen Davis either. He has some speed and explosion, but he's not a fast back.

Fair enough, but as noted, LJ slid all the way into the bottom of the first round. He's certainly been productive since then, but I think his draft status is illustrative of the fact that he was never viewed as an elite talent.

Yes, you can. I liked Priest Holmes quite a bit while he was with the Ravens, but just as a solid guy who could make plays for us and wouldn't cost huge money in free agency. Instead he went to Kansas City and suddenly put up some of the best rushing seasons in NFL history. Did he suddenly develop Hall of Fame talent or was he playing behind the best run blocking line in history? You can pretty safely say that it's the latter, and it's also pretty clear that LJ's steady decline in ypc is due to changes on that offensive line. Some people will be tricked by his '06 numbers into thinking that he was elite, but he wasn't. His ypc was solid, but he just had an assload of carries that made his overall totals look better. He wasn't nearly as dominating as he had been the previous season when they had Roaf, and he's even less of a threat now.

 

Certainly a big part of both Holmes and LJ's success has been that OL but not all of it. I think either of them would be a pretty solid back on a team with an average OL. I doubt you could stick Benson on the Chiefs the last couple of years and get that kind of production.

 

I would too. We'll see, but so far, unimpressed.

 

You doubt it because your limited knowledge and intellect handicap you when it comes to considering alternative possibilities. If you haven't seen something happen, you have difficulty understanding how it could.

 

for what it's worth, there's still no direct causation that states it's definitively "this" and not "that" or any combination. That's the thing I've always had a specific issue with - with a ton of variables on the table, how none of them happen to matter. I've never seen a coaching change, a coordinator change, and even simply a change in year/schedule/opponent/circumstance ever not have an effect, or else players would achieve almost the same results every time.

I'm more than fine with alternate possibilities, but that's not what's being said. The line changes are certainly going to make a difference. They're also certainly far from the only thing that would. Definitively isolating one thing, and making a lot of variables constant, I'd need a lot more convincing.

 

I certainly don't care if you want to believe that LJ or Priest Holmes are Hall of Fame talents, just as I wouldn't care if you wanted to believe that aliens instructed you to eat your own shit. But the facts are that Priest Holmes' production increased by a ridiculous degree upon joining Kansas City, that the Chiefs had several future Hall of Famers on that offensive line, and that Larry Johnson's yards per carry production has declined enormously with the retirements of those blockers.

 

Sure. I agree that was a factor. The part that I have a problem with, usually, is that one factor you've specifically chosen has 100% of the cause and the other factors that changed are somehow constants throughout.

 

Priest Holmes averaged 5.0 yards per carry in Baltimore as a starter, in a year and a half of work. Then he got hurt, and they drafted Lewis. And he averaged 4.3 yards a carry and over 800 total yards as a backup.

So no, Priest Holmes' production did not increase by a "ridiculous degree" upon joining Kansas City, really. Basically the same production as a starter in Baltimore. He just got the ball more.

Certainly being in a better offense with a better line gave him the extra touches, as did having an offense built around him.

But you have not seen the same flashes in Benson that you saw in Holmes in Baltimore, or even Thomas Jones last year with the same offense.

 

I don't know where you got that 5.0 number, but it's wrong (I think you just averaged 4.3 + 5.7 even though the 5.7 came on far fewer carries that season, actually 136 on 2 of those). Holmes had 459 carries for 2102 yards (4.6 ypc) and 10 rushing touchdowns in three seasons with Baltimore. His next three seasons with Kansas City he had 960 carries for 4590 yards (4.8 ypc) and 56 rushing touchdowns. Again, I was the one who campaigned for us to sign for him as a free agent in '01, but not even I thought he was remotely as good as his numbers looked in Kansas City.

Yes it did. And LJ's has declined in accordance with changes on KC's offensive line.

Not this season, no, but Benson had been as effective as Jones on a per carry basis when both were there. Note that I'm not saying that expect Benson to erupt into a Pro Bowler. I don't, unless he finds himself surrounded by an exceptional offense. I do think he'll be solid, though. I don't believe that his 3.1 ypc thus far is any more representative than Rudi Johnson's 3.0.