This weeks games fantasy preview

per ESPN Insider:

I've seen too many e-mails this week from fantasy football owners panicking about the fact there are six teams on bye this week. While I won't go so far as to say when you draft your team back in August you should make key decisions based on bye weeks, you should at least consider them to some degree, but never use them as a crutch.
I do pay attention to bye weeks when I draft, and maybe it breaks a tie between two players I look at for round eight, but the point is, this isn't the week to complain, as if there is a good time. Are both your starting RBs off this week, say Chester Taylor and Corey Dillon? Did you have a backup QB for when Peyton Manning had to sit? Really, I've heard so many complaints about this week, but who is really off that is killing your fantasy team? Only a pair of top 10 quarterbacks from draft day, a few timeshares at running back, you couldn't prepare for this? Week 3 was worse with two of fantasy's top three picks!

Next week is the only other time six teams will be on bye, and it's another week that shouldn't kill fantasy teams too much. Oh sure, you'll miss the top two defenses, and Robbie Gould owners will need to replace their kicker, but there's no QB you can't live without. The top two running backs for yards (Steven Jackson, Frank Gore) won't play, but you'll live.

The point is, bye weeks are hardly an excuse for losing a fantasy football matchup. It's lame. Sure, I've had to pick up a free agent or two for this week, but losing Reuben Droughns and Donald Driver is no big deal. Take a look now at future bye weeks and make sure your bench is stocked for the occasion. Why is Dom Davis still owned in so many leagues?

So, only 13 games to break down this week. Let's go.

Rams 23, Seahawks 20: I know what you're thinking, that the Seahawks are the defending NFC champs, they're coming off a bye and they swept the Rams last season. So what? It's a different team now, and the offensive line isn't the same. The running back isn't the same (this week, anyway). And assuming that a team coming off a bye plays better is wrong. All evidence proves there's no difference.

The Rams, meanwhile, are underrated. Records after five weeks can be misleading, and while the Rams are 4-1 but could easily be 2-3, this is an improved team. Marc Bulger is a fantasy start every week now, so are Steven Jackson and Torry Holt.

Who's a must play on Seattle? I'd expect two touchdowns from Matt Hasselbeck, maybe one to each of the starting wide receivers. Yep, I'd use Deion Branch, even though the Rams have played well defensively (except the Lions game). Maurice Morris should get 15 carries, but he's still not recommended.

Worthy plays: Both QBs, S.Jackson, all four starting WRs
You can do better: Morris

Giants 24, Falcons 16: First of all, Eli Manning is good for a touchdown or more every week. His streak stands at eight straight games, which doesn't seem like much, but it is. Second, there's got to be some urgency with this team. Unlike Seattle, they've been embarrassed this season. They're in a tougher division. They hate their coach. I can see the Giants coming out strong. Tough schedule or not, this is a quality team.

Michael Vick is a top five fantasy quarterback so far, and as long as he keeps on running, he'll stay that way. No, his passing stats aren't special, but he gets the total yards. You just have to change the way you look at him. If you own him, he's worth playing. Quarterbacks move the ball on the Giants. Just avoid the Atlanta wide receivers. Some of you are waiting for Ashley Lelie to break out. I don't see it coming anytime soon, not in this offense.

Worthy plays: Both QBs, starting RBs, Plaxico Burress
You can do better: Atlanta WRs, Jerious Norwood

Cowboys 38, Texans 24: Do you really think Drew Bledsoe is a bad quarterback? I don't. He has a few games like the Philly one every season, the problem is he's already got two games with three interceptions and the bye outta the way, so his totals aren't good at all. But he's not the 27th best QB in the league, no matter what his rating is. If you own Bledsoe and think you need to sign a Bruce Gradkowski or Jon Kitna for this week, I don't agree. Bledsoe has a big game, one of the biggest for quarterbacks this week, and so does Terrell Owens. How many teams have more to prove than Dallas?

How is David Carr the best quarterback in the NFL for passer rating? It doesn't hurt when you get to play while trailing. Carr did play well in these games, including the win over the Dolphins, and he's a worthy foe for a Dallas defense that got lit up by big plays last week. I'd play Carr and Andre Johnson, arguably one of the top three QB-WR combos in the game this season.

Worthy plays: Both QBs, Julius Jones, Terry Glenn, Owens, A.Johnson
You can do better: Houston RBs

Bills 31, Lions 10: I'd like to give the Lions a win at some point, but I can't do it this week. I've been paying close attention to Buffalo for awhile, because I keep waiting for J.P. Losman to have his decent play show up in the stats. This is the week. Detroit is so easy to pass on, watch Losman top 200 yards and get two scores. And Willis McGahee, to me, is a weekly play. He is third in the NFL in rushing yards. Touchdowns drive the bus in fantasy, and McGahee will get his, maybe seven or eight this season, maybe two in this game.

This could be it for Jon Kitna, who would take the fall for the team's winless start. In reality, Kitna is second in the NFL in passing yards. That's not bad? He's also second in sacks, and the No. 1 guy has already been benched (Daunte Culpepper). Don't run out and sign backup Josh McCown. He'll have the same problems.

Worthy plays: Losman, McGahee, Lee Evans, Roy Williams (if he plays)
You can do better: Kitna, Kevin Jones (he might not play as well)

Eagles 34, Saints 30: We know the Eagles are going to score. They're scoring on everyone. Are the 4-1 Saints legit? I think they are, with enough offensive weapons to make big plays and keep the team in games. Drew Brees has played well, Deuce McAllister has run well and Marques Colston has caught well.

As for Reggie Bush, my stance hasn't changed. He was a good play the first month as well as last week. It took the punt return touchdown to show fantasy owners that he can break a big play at any time. Why can't he do something like this again this week, but on a screen pass? He can. To me, you don't choose who to play in fantasy based on stats alone. You also look at their potential to make a little play into a big one. Bush can do that. Assume the rushing yards won't be there, but five or six receptions at a minimum, and maybe he breaks one.

Ultimately, it's tough to pick against Philly the way it moves the ball. Just be careful about their wide receivers. Donovan McNabb is just as likely to pick one you don't have active. Is Hank Baskett going to catch an 87-yarder again? I guess he could, but I doubt it.

Worthy plays: McNabb, Brian Westbrook (he'll play), Reggie Brown, Brees, both Saints RBs, Colston
You can do better: Other Philly WRs, Joe Horn

Bengals 27, Buccaneers 17: Like the Cincy-Cleveland game from earlier this season, you've got the powerful Bengals offense ready to explode, and the other team led by the young quarterback trying to stay in the game. Give Bruce Gradkowski credit for a fine Week 5 game, and he could do it again. In fact, the Bucs should move the ball. Carnell Williams should get decent yardage, but the Bucs seem to make silly mistakes. The Bucs are a team that constantly produces fantasy questions. The answers are, play Cadillac and Joey Galloway always, and consider Gradkowski an occasional play.

Worried about Carson Palmer and pals on the road? Not a bit. And don't take Chad Johnson out of the lineup. Yes, he's not doing much. No, we won't be having this one-sided conversation next week.

Worthy plays: All Bengals, Cadillac, Galloway
You can do better: Gradkowski

Redskins 27, Titans 3: I know the Redskins got walloped last week, and the Titans are showing signs of progress. But I can see Mark Brunell really enjoying this one, like he did against the Texans a few weeks back. Do the Titans play decent defense? It seems like it, but those who watched Peyton Manning struggle against them say a lot of it was Peyton's fault. I'll go with that.

Vince Young and Travis Henry are not to be relied on in fantasy this week. The Colts can't stop the run. The Redskins can. I've seen in a number of leagues already how Henry has been passed up for other running back backups, like Michael Turner and Correll Buckhalter. Honestly, Ladell Betts might be a better play for when the Redskins are up big and go to their backup.

Worthy plays: Brunell, Clinton Portis, Santana Moss
You can do better: Titans, Betts

Panthers 16, Ravens 9: I don't see why this game will be much different than the Monday night game in Denver. The Ravens don't move the ball enough. If Tatum Bell doesn't fumble that ball early on, would Baltimore have scored? Carolina has played better of late, they have more weapons. Sit your Ravens again.

But play your Panthers in the right spots, even though I don't expect a big game for Jake Delhomme or many points. You never sit Steve Smith. He's had big games before against top defenses. He only needs one big play to make it worth your while. I'd play DeShaun Foster, too. He's going to get all the carries with DeAngelo Williams out. (So much for the reports that Shelton will get 15 carries)

Worthy plays: Foster, S.Smith
You can do better: Delhomme, all Ravens, except Matt Stover!

 

Dolphins 27, Jets 20: Joey Harrington should get noticed after this one, though it might be a bit misleading. Even with one good game, and I think he will be good, he's going to remain largely inconsistent this season. Ronnie Brown and his owners should enjoy themselves, and I'd even go with underachieving Chris Chambers.

The Leon Washington pickup you made this week might work out, but then again, the Jets do intend to give Kevan Barlow the start and the majority of the carries. Why? Did you think Leon was the next Larry Johnson? I wouldn't play either Jets RB this week, but do expect Chad Pennington and his receivers to be pretty good. Last week's Jets game, just write it off.

Worthy plays: Both QBs, R.Brown, Chambers, Wes Welker, Laveranues Coles, Jerricho Cotchery
You can do better: Jets RBs

Steelers 23, Chiefs 17: I think it's too bad football fans are giving up on Ben Roethlisberger. Sure, he hasn't looked good, and he has reasons to look that way, but I just think he needs more time and the opportunity to face a lesser defense. This is the week. He's not an obvious play, but not the worst one. He's going to throw a touchdown pass.

Heard some rumors this week about Trent Green, both positive and negative, some that he'd be back any week now, others that his season was over. I don't know what to believe, but I do know that Damon Huard has played very well, leading the team to a few wins and throwing nary an interception. Impressive, eh? Even against the Steelers Huard can have success. Philip Rivers did.

Will Larry Johnson play? I guess this will be a popular topic Sunday morning, but I think he will.

Worthy plays: Both QBs, starting RBs, Hines Ward, Eddie Kennison
You can do better: Nobody really. How about Tony Gonzalez?

Chargers 35, 49ers 17: Time to grab Michael Turner. LaDainian Tomlinson owners think they have a right to complain about their top pick, but it could be far worse. Try owning Shaun Alexander! What's he going to deliver this week? LT is not going to be overused, especially when few backs with six years experience have this much mileage on the tires. The Chargers are thriving and Turner is an asset. Marty Schottenheimer doesn't care about your fantasy team, he likes splitting the carries. Regardless, LT remains a solid play every week, but Turner's not a bad option at all for the 49ers.

Frank Gore is tied for the league lead in rushing yards, and while there's still some concern about who will get the goal line carries for this team, Gore could certainly look a lot like Tiki Barber and get to double digit touchdowns even if he doesn't get the one-yard plunges. Alex Smith has been a consistent fantasy performer except for one nasty game, getting 15, 15, 16 and 17 points. I'd use him here but, ultimately, expect the Chargers to run with ease and make Smith play while trailing.

Worthy plays: Philip Rivers, both SD RBs, A.Smith, Gore
You can do better: All WRs

Broncos 28, Raiders 10: Looks like the prime time games this weekend might not be the most compelling. The Raiders are arguably the worst team in football, and Denver doesn't allow points. Now how are the Raiders going to win? I'm not sure I'd even play the top Raiders, so to speak, in LaMont Jordan and Randy Moss. Not a good week ahead.

Tatum Bell is going to run wild. Really wild. And the schedule is kind for the next few weeks after as well.

Worthy plays: T.Bell, Jake Plummer, Javon Walker, Rod Smith
You can do better: M.Bell, all Raiders

Bears 30, Cardinals 13: I think Matt Leinart is a worthy fantasy addition, but I wouldn't play him this week. What more do we need to see about teams playing the Bears? The QBs run for their lives. Running games are stuffed. Wide receivers do not make big plays. Points do not get scored. Sit your Cardinals, including the guy tied for the No. 10 spot among running backs this season, Edgerrin James. Yeah, you thought he was much worse than that, didn't you? Well, this is not that bad. But he's not likely to still be in the top 10 next week.

Rex Grossman should be good for two more scores, probably one to the No. 1 receiver in fantasy, Bernard Berrian. In one of my leagues, which is played off-line, most owners assumed Berrian had already been signed. He hadn't. Got picked up yesterday. Thomas Jones is a good bet to top 100 yards and while I understand why some owners would flat out dump Cedric Benson, this isn't the week to do it. Watch him score again and then you could try to deal him. This is going to be Jones' job all year, but Benson has a Michael Turner type matchup and could get 10 fourth-quarter carries alone.

Worthy plays: Bears
You can do better: Cardinals other than Anquan Boldin, a play every week.